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His masters' ear By Akiva Eldar Tags: Military Intelligence, Syria  In July 2006, four days after the Second Lebanon War had erupted, when his former comrades-in-arms were saying, "let the Israel Defense Forces win," Major General (res.) Uri Saguy told Haaretz: "Decision makers think they know everything. They are living under the illusion that Israel can continue to attack as much as it wants, and that nothing will happen in the world. We are approaching the limits of military power." The man who headed Military Intelligence (MI) from 1991 to 1995, and who also served as GOC Southern Command and as commander of the ground forces, advised the chief of staff at the time, Dan Halutz - who was promising to "exact a price from Hezbollah" - that he take into account that Israel would not get off cheaply from the confrontation in the North. Referring to an IDF artillery shell that was mistakenly directed onto a UN compound in Lebanon in 1996, killing more than 100 locals who had taken refuge there, Saguy warned, or prophesied, that "hitches like Kafr Kana will imprint in the collective consciousness that Israel attacks the civilians of a neighboring country and has perhaps brought about the fall of Lebanon's weak government." Ever since his buddy in the "club" of Golani Brigade commanders, Gabi Ashkenazi, took over the command of the IDF, Saguy has been a regular visitor to the chief of staff's bureau. Saguy serves as an advisor not only to Ashkenazi - he also has the ear of Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who has delegated to him responsibility for contacts with the Syrians. Sometimes he also has the ear of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Informed sources in the defense establishment say Saguy has contributed significantly to the way the conflict in the Gaza Strip is being managed, and especially to the fact that the nation's leaders have not sent the IDF in to reoccupy it. Advertisement Saguy says that even if what he had to say was on target concerning the reality of the summer of 2006, not all the answers he had then are applicable today, but his basic views remain the same. "This kind of conflict will not be resolved by military force, however effective and strong it might be. In Gaza, as in Lebanon, even if the preventive assassinations and the military operations are extremely successful, there is no way to insure that steep-trajectory weapons will not be used against us. We are all sitting around the sickbed hoping that we have a good diagnosis and arguing about the prognosis. But in the end, we are treating the symptoms of the disease and not its causes. The army does not have an absolute solution and therefore we must not expect that it will bring about a complete recovery. All the IDF can promise the patient is that it will do what it can to improve his life and ensure that it is tolerable. "The time has come for us to learn that force is not everything. The State of Israel has already been through experiences like this. They fired at Beit She'an and at Tiberias. Anyone who says we can't withstand this is only saying this on the basis of his own opinion." Unofficial truce From your observation post alongside the chief of staff and the top security brass, are you calmer than you were in the summer of 2006 concerning the level of command and the quality of implementation in the IDF? At that time you spoke about the absence of the wisdom of simplicity in the top command. Saguy: "I am helping the chief of staff all I can and my impression is that, both substantively and in the processes of decision making, the situation looks much better than it did in the summer of 2006. Today it's understood that the army is responsible for providing security to civilians, and we're not hearing about 'the home front strengthening the soldiers at the battle front.' I can say that the military activity is in responsible hands, but even the best commanders can't perform miracles. At the same time, we haven't really faced the test, because we aren't talking about a war, but rather a limited military action." What do you think of the call to embark on an extensive ground action in Gaza, and to bombard the sources of the firing inside residential neighborhoods? "I am convinced that the IDF knows how to take control of Gaza again, but I doubt that a major action would solve the basic problem. The prime minister, the defense minister and the chief of staff are acting in accordance with the principle of proportionality to improve the patient's quality of life. It is good that the decision makers are doing all they can to avoid an all-out clash. It is a pity that there are politicians who are letting their impulses take over the agenda. Militants in Hamas and irresponsible Israeli politicians are frothing at the mouth and giving free rein to their urges. It is possible to understand the reasons for this, but it doesn't lead anywhere. "You need to ask the political leaders who are proposing to take control of the Gaza Strip by force - on the assumption that this is possible - what they see happening on the day after. Taking control of the Gaza Strip would entail a large number of casualties. The more casualties there are, the more impassioned both sides become. I have heard a very senior cabinet minister propose steep- trajectory firing on the Palestinians. This expresses great distress. Extensive firing will hit innocent people and will not advance our interests. Even if we have to suffer casualties among our civilian population. We can't allow ourselves this." Are you saying, then, that there should be a truce with Hamas? "Hamas is more dangerous than a [mere] terror organization, because it is also a religious and political organization. It is possible to overcome a terror organization by means of military might, but not a movement that has ideological roots. Even though this may sound like a paradox, our interest is similar to that of Hamas. We both want quiet. They are interested in completing the total conquest of the Gaza Strip, and so it is important to them that we not take control of it. For us it is important to protect the lives of the civilians of Sderot and Ashkelon. "Hamas is an interlocutor on current issues, such as a truce and the return of prisoners. Who is even asking Hamas whether we have a right to live here? We have this right without Hamas doing us a favor and recognizing us. We aren't going to resolve our ideological dispute with the organization, but we are wronging ourselves in that we aren't speaking with it about the tactical issues. The Palestine Liberation Organization used to be a no less bitter enemy and its covenant denied Israel's right to exist. Both with [Yasser] Arafat and in Lebanon, we reached truces. Just as we did that with them - with Hamas, too, a cease-fire does not have to be official and contractually binding. The conflicts with the Arab world are like a boxing match that is determined by points, not by a knock out, and from time to time the round ends." With no preconditions Saguy headed Israel's negotiating team with Syria during the time of Barak's government (1999-2001). He does not retract his claim that this was a missed opportunity, "of historic dimensions." Since then he has maintained quiet but constant contact with key people in Damascus. "The dispute with regard to Syria is not over the Golan Heights," he insists. "The Golan is only the price. The dispute is over whether Syria will become part of an agreement or will constitute a problem that prevents an agreement." Saguy is opposed to stipulating preconditions for the renewal of negotiations with Syria, including the condition that the Hamas offices be expelled from Damascus. In his opinion, a decision like that should be a result of negotiations and not a precondition for starting talks. "I would like this to be a condition, but the reality is that conditions like that prevent the negotiations from taking place. People who pose preconditions for negotiations don't want the negotiations. This applies to us, to the Syrians and to the Americans. I'm not saying that this is not a legitimate stance, but I am questioning how wise it is." Do you prefer the Syrian channel to the negotiations with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his people? "As I see the world, the State of Israel should aspire above all to arrive at agreements with the countries that threaten it. I am saying this not because the Palestinian problem isn't the central problem, but rather because it is a most sensitive problem that involves ideological issues and deals with a debate over historical justice. I hope that the conflict with the Palestinians is not incurable, but I don't see that the political process that is currently underway stands much of a chance. Perhaps the day is approaching when there will have to be active international intervention in this acute tribal conflict, but I fear that this is not going to happen so long as there isn't quiet here, so therefore we are stuck in a vicious cycle. "There hasn't been enough attention paid here to the Arab peace initiative, which includes very important characteristics. It expresses the interests of the Arab world, especially the Sunni world, which is a partner to our problems vis-a-vis the other axis, which is mostly Shi'ite. To my regret, the leadership prefers to deal with responding to grave incidents and is evading a more profound regional perspective. We must decide whether to keep on dealing with reactive issues or to look at things in a broader, more regional way." Bookmark to del.icio.us   Bring the house down Dichter to police: Demolish home of J'lem yeshiva terrorist. Media frenzy Israel to boycott Al-Jazeera TV, claiming incitement to terror.   1.   Saguy is not very clever! 21:18  |  eddie 08/03/08

Today Online Abbas accuses Israel of 'ethnic cleansing' in Jerusalem Responses: 159 At least 24 Qassam rockets fired into Israel from Gaza since Wed. Responses: 128 Amira Hass: PA officials should act more like Gandhi Responses: 48 Poll: Half of Jewish public oppose Arabs in their neighborhoods Responses: 106 Wagner show in Nazi-era hall to raise funds for Ramallah venue Responses: 67 More Headlines 16:40 Abbas accuses Israel of 'ethnic cleansing' in Jerusalem 21:16 At least 25 Qassam rockets fired into Israel from Gaza since Wed. 19:07 Ban: Israel must halt 'excessive force' against Palestinians 20:56 Jerusalem yeshiva commemorates 8 students slain in terror attack 20:41 Hezbollah becoming more visible in West Bank after Mughniyah death 20:54 Bank of Israel buys up to $100 million in bid to stem dollar devaluation 21:02 Arab states boycott Paris book fair over Israel honor 20:38 Two Kiryat Ata men arrested for attacking Arab workers 14:35 Islamic leader to skip police probe, fearing rightist attacks 16:15 Security forces hunting Gazan heading to Israel from Strip 17:53 Barak vows Israel will continue pursuing murderers of Jews 19:00 Food company, co-owner indicted for trading with Gaza terrorists Previous Editions Select Day 12 mar 11 mar 10 mar 09 mar 07 mar 06 mar 05 mar 04 mar 03 mar 02 mar 29 feb 28 feb

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