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A masked member of Hamas at a mass rally (AP file).
Last update - 11:32 03/03/2008
ANALYSIS: Hamas wants lull in Gaza, but only on its own terms
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: Israel, Fatah, Gaza Strip 

The prevailing opinion in the government and Israel Defense Forces leadership on Sunday was that Hamas wants to end the current round of fighting with Israel. The Palestinians, it is thought, have suffered a nearly intolerable amount of casualties this past week and are looking for a way out of the hostilities.

But it appears that Israel forgot to take into consideration Hamas' military wing, whose operatives have continued to launch Qassam and Grad Katyusha rockets on the western and northern Negev.

Sunday's fighting was indeed more limited than the blood-drenched violence on Saturday. But some 40 rockets in one day, in addition to >12 Palestinian fatalities, cannot be considered a return to normal.
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In principle, the Israeli view is logical: Hamas is indeed interested in a lull. But at least for the meantime, despite the pressure being exerted by the IDF, the organization is prepared to agree to a cessation of hostility only on its own terms - after it proves that it can withstand Israel's steamroller.

The importance of the death toll should not be ignored. After the IDF operation in Jabalya, with some 100 Palestinian fatalities in less than a week, the Gaza Strip is thirsty for revenge. Hamas, like Hezbollah, wants to be the one to fire last. It will be able to live with a gradual reduction in shooting, as long as it does not look like it was the one that gave in.

In addition, Hamas is scoring some victories of its own. It managed to paralyze the West Bank, where a full strike was declared, though not on the orders of the Palestinian Authority. The schools shut down and students took to the streets to protest the IDF operation in Gaza on Sunday. Settlers' cars became targets for stones and firebombs.

Hamas also dominated Palestinian media discourse, with Fatah being attacked on all the television stations ¬ an impressive political victory for the Islamic organization.

The IDF, for its part, is recommending that the government allow a continuation of the offensive. The General Staff is pleased that the army has been allowed to take its gloves off, and envisions a long series of actions. These include additional ground operations of limited scope, a continued aerial hunt for the people involved in manufacturing and launching rockets, and possible attacks on leaders of the Hamas political bureau. The IDF is considering sending more troops into Gaza because the forces there may not suffice.

The primary objective of the Gaza move is to get Ashkelon out of the firing line and to prevent Hamas from launching a large number of Qassams at Sderot in response to the death of every operative. The army's operations are also meant to provide the basis for a possible decision to embark on an expanded ground offensive, because the IDF will be able to argue that it has tried everything and that it is bringing extensive forces into the Strip only as a last resort.

It seems that those who boast about the IDF's achievements sometimes confuse efficiency with effectiveness. The fact that the army has been completing its tasks with relative efficiency does not necessarily lead to a fundamental change in the situation. As in previous clashes with the Palestinians, Israel has quickly moved toward a focus on the body count.

Even if there is a gap between the haughty statements of Hamas spokesmen and the movement's actual situation, it is clear that Hamas sees its losses in a different way than Israel does and that it views the ongoing conflict in the context of a totally different time frame than that envisioned by the impatient Israelis.


b>Related articles:
  • PM to tell Rice: Israel reserves right to act freely in Gaza
  • 10 Gazans killed, 4 troops hurt in ongoing IDF op
  • 2 Israelis lightly wounded as 33 rockets slam in western Negev
  • U.S. calls for end to continued violence, return to peace talks
  • Barak to hold meeting on legality of striking civilian areas in Gaza


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      1.   Precisely Why Any Cease Fire Is Dangerous, Not Worthless 01:57  |  Tod Zuckerman 03/03/08
      2.   The HAMAS Tradeoff 01:57  |  Brad 03/03/08
      3.   terms 02:17  |  Shmuelshaschor 03/03/08
      4.   I like this artical for the most part 02:27  |  Ron 03/03/08
      5.   So Sunday olmert gave hamas a day of rest to regroup, right? 02:34  |  Chris 03/03/08
      6.   1Ron,your leaders consult the skewed israeli justice system 03:36  |  lakshmi 03/03/08
      7.   Notice Harel`s sleight of hand at the beginning? 03:49  |  Johnboy 03/03/08
      8.   Causualities 04:30  |  Moses 03/03/08
      9.   Slowly Hamas has made its right to hit Ashkelon 04:37  |  Bobby 03/03/08
      10.   Johnboy, Johnboy 06:14  |  MKS 03/03/08
      11.   Will they ever learn? 06:25  |  Mike 03/03/08
      12.   I thought 07:01  |  rm 03/03/08
      13.   videogameboy just drones on 07:25  |  peter 03/03/08
      14.   Hamas doesn`t want to learn so finsih them off already 07:26  |  Shepherd 03/03/08
      15.   In other words... 07:34  |  Colin Wright 03/03/08
      16.   re #7 `Notice...` 07:37  |  Colin Wright 03/03/08
      17.   Israel in control of the Egypt-Gaza border crossing. 08:30  |  Jean Van Daem 03/03/08
      18.   Israel has a right to defend itself 08:33  |  Clickfool 03/03/08
      19.   lull = lol 08:36  |  sirius 03/03/08
      20.   The primary objective? 08:44  |  maoriboy 03/03/08
      21.   Goodbye Ashkelon 08:44  |  George Lechter 03/03/08
      22.   #10 MKS, MKS, MKS 08:49  |  Johnboy 03/03/08
      23.   ONE PARTICULAR MESSAGE FOR HAMAS 08:56  |  indrajaya 03/03/08
      24.   #13 peter, as usual, wrong in the 1st sentence 08:56  |  Johnboy 03/03/08
      25.   "Hamas sees its losses in a different way than Israel does" 09:17  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/03/08
      26.   foolish olmert and barak MUST RESIGN 09:38  |  reuven 03/03/08
      27.   Is trhere any independent Hamas military wing? 09:45  |  Fritz T. 03/03/08
      28.   #17 How many years did you go to school? 09:49  |  Smart Man 03/03/08
      29.   Thought provoking 09:49  |  Joseph 03/03/08
      30.   Olmert is destroying Israel 09:58  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/03/08
      31.   DON`T LET UP - Hit The HAMAS Much HARDER 10:15  |  Suzanne 03/03/08
      32.   IDF has been defeated again,lawyers have won over Israel 10:26  |  Absolute Swden 03/03/08
      33.   hamas wants lull in gaza,but only on its own terms 10:31  |  steve 03/03/08
      34.   Israel wants a lull but only on its own terms. 10:42  |  Michael 03/03/08
      35.   Pure, wishful thinking by the boneheads of Israel 10:44  |  Clickfool 03/03/08
      36.   #20 JOHNBOY 11:16  |  DANNY 03/03/08
      37.   The Core Issue 11:41  |  john 03/03/08
      38.   #Johnboy - Collective punishment? 11:56  |  henri 03/03/08
      39.   Hamas = Terror 12:02  |  POP 03/03/08
      40.   The Arabs & Leftist to blame for Palestinians situation!! 12:36  |  Christian Arab 03/03/08
      41.   To who is 100 dead terrorists intolerable??? 12:39  |  Suzanne 03/03/08
      42.   to arab christian #27 - Machsom witches!! 13:06  |  Jean 03/03/08
      43.   Suzanne#28...MOST OF THOSE MURDERED WERE BABIES/CHILDREN & WOMEN 13:07  |  TripleJump 03/03/08
      44.   #27 Yeah, right, henri 13:40  |  Johnboy 03/03/08
      45.   Johnkid 14:24  |  Uzi 03/03/08
      46.   For Suzanne # 33 14:52  |  Clickfool 03/03/08
      47.   32 Christian Arab,you consider the pitiful bantustans on a much 15:26  |  lakshmi 03/03/08
      48.   Lakschmi there war criminals there war criminals 15:27  |  Sabra 03/03/08
      49.   Look at the Picture: It`s a Child 16:26  |  Bombasticular 03/03/08
      50.   Hamas wants a LULL - Of course...... 16:33  |  Dagma 03/03/08
      51.   in `34 yabotinsky said, I devote my life to the 16:35  |  bozhidar 03/03/08
      52.   #35 triple jump deaf and blind! 17:39  |  v hardman 03/03/08
      53.   Bobby, you`re wrong. Everyone else - NO REST FOR THE WICKED 18:37  |  Dave from Chicago 03/03/08
      54.   27 Clickfool 19:14  |  leo 03/03/08
      55.   One dead terrorist for every five rocket launches??? 19:20  |  Voice of Reason 03/03/08
      56.   Hamas just declared victory - let Isreal recovery 20:22  |  sammy 03/03/08
      57.   Arab action takes away Israeli empathy... 20:46  |  Dave from Chicago 03/03/08
      58.   Analysis: Hamas wants Lull 21:06  |  Richard Koplin, MD 03/03/08
      59.   videogameboy hits the replay....again 21:17  |  peter 03/03/08
      60.   So,will Bethlehem be the Palastinian Capitol in the Pal State 22:10  |  inquiring mind? 03/03/08
      61.   re #42 `Arab action takes away Israeli empathy...` 22:21  |  Colin Wright 03/03/08
      62.   Thank you for pointing it out Dave from Chicago 23:20  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 03/03/08
      63.   Susanne in paris #33 "to who is 100 dead terrorists intolerable"? 23:46  |  terrornator 03/03/08
      64.   #9 Bobby Fellow Canuck EH? What Huh? 23:48  |  Robert/Montreal 03/03/08
      65.   triple jump # 35 Re;susanne "most of those murdered were babies/ 23:51  |  terrornator 03/03/08
      66.   #35 Triple Dump 23:52  |  Robert/Montreal 03/03/08
      67.   Ted Zuckerman 23:53  |  kay 03/03/08
      68.   johnyboy RE;henri johnnyboy,which uses of the term collective 00:06  |  terrornator 04/03/08
      69.   WHO IS TO BLAME?- The Truth will be denied, as usual! 02:14  |  PADDY 04/03/08
      70.