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An IDF mobile artillery unit on Saturday firing a shot into Gaza, near the Karni crossing between Israel and the Strip. (Reuters)
Last update - 09:51 02/03/2008
ANALYSIS: Hamas' next move will be to avenge Gaza deaths
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: Israel, Palestinians, Gaza 

All those calling for a major military operation in the Gaza Strip must take into account its cost. The Givati Brigade's limited operation in the outskirts of Jabalya on Saturday gave an indication of the expected scale of casualties. Two soldiers were killed, as were at least 63 Palestinians, including many civilians. More than 50 Katyushas and Qassam rockets were fired in response on Sderot, Ashkelon and other communities bordering the Strip. And all this was part of a dress rehearsal. The number of casualties in a major, drawn-out operation could be much higher.

Why did the casualty rates climb on Saturday? The main reason has to do with the area where the operation took place. The IDF force operated at the edge of the area where Israeli raids are conducted- up to three kilometers from the fence surrounding the Gaza Strip. But this time the Israel Defense Forces hit a sensitive location: the outskirts of a built-up and crowded part of Gaza City, around Jabal Kasef, between Jabalya and Sa'ajiya. Hamas rushed reinforcements to the area, from the start of the operation.

As in many of these incidents, the minute the IDF suffered casualties, they used massive gunfire to gain access to the wounded and dead, and to avoid more Israeli casualties. For their part, the Palestinian gunmen took up positions in homes, while the civilians were still inside. Under such circumstances, it is obvious that the number of civilian deaths, including children, will be great.
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Moreover, the operation took place at the peak of a period of escalating fighting, which began Wednesday morning with an IDF air strike in Khan Yunis, which killed five Hamas militants.

On Friday one had the impression that Hamas was trying to end the current cycle of violence, and therefore fired considerably fewer Qassam rockets (nine compared with about 40 per day over the previous two days). But the decision in Israel was to continue the attacks, the intention being to prevent Hamas from dictating the pace of the confrontation, or its intensity.

After the operation in Jabalya and the high number of Palestinian deaths, it will take longer to achieve relative calm. But even if calm is restored, through Egyptian mediation, it is likely to be temporary. Israel is quickly approaching the point at which it will embark on a major ground operation, which may happen in a few weeks. Even before the operation begins, Israel may decide to assassinate Hamas political leaders.

The government has mostly bad options. Even a ground operation will not immediately contain the launching of Qassam rockets, and it is doubtful whether it will achieve a long-term solution.

The frequent Katyusha attacks on Ashkelon is accelerating the deterioration. The defense establishment found Ashkelon Mayor Roni Mahatzri's decision not to operate the Color Red missile alert a convenient way of waving off the Katyusha attacks as "sporadic." But last Thursday, following two days of rocket attacks, Mahatzri changed his mind and asked Defense Minister Ehud Barak to make the decision. Barak had little room to maneuver: If people were killed in Ashkelon, without any early warning of incoming missiles, he would be blamed for their deaths. The decision to turn on Color Red was therefore a no brainer.

But Ashkelon is not really ready for Katyushas: A direct hit by one of them is significantly more damaging than a similar strike by a Qassam. Ashkelon, without any fortification to public buildings, with 25,000 pupils in the public education system (more than the entire population of Sderot), will find it hard to stand up to constant bombardment. Neither will the country. "Two weeks of bombing Ashkelon - and we are at war," a senior IDF officer predicted over the weekend.

It is a mistake for anyone in Israel to think that the high price that the Gaza Strip is paying will undermine Palestinian civilians's support for the Hamas government. At least for the moment, the operation's impact is the opposite. The Gaza residents who spoke Saturday with Haaretz expressed their absolute support for Hamas and its activities. Munir, a former officer in the Fatah security forces, is not a big fan of Hamas. But Saturday, after the killing of civilians in the IDF operation, he said: "All of Gaza has become Hamas. We will all fight Israel. If the IDF moves deep into the Gaza Strip, it should expect shooting from every home, even if it is populated [with civilians]."

Gaza pundits said on Saturday that it is unlikely that Hamas will fire fewer rockets at Israel. They say the group is now focused on offering the Palestinians what they need most: revenge, through rocket attacks, or through suicide bombings from the West Bank.

Readiness has been stepped up by Central Command against possible suicide bombers or mass, violent demonstrations.


Related articles:
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  • 2 IDF soldiers, 61 Palestinians die in Gaza clashes
  • The perspective from Ashkelon: Don't test our patience
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      1.   Casualties are a fact of life in war 05:47  |  RA 02/03/08
      2.   the price 06:46  |  Shmuelshachor 02/03/08
      3.   Gaza operation comes at a price 06:48  |  Carey 02/03/08
      4.   Bad options are better than none 06:53  |  Victory 02/03/08
      5.   Gaza terrorism will end, one way or another 07:10  |  Gili 02/03/08
      6.   Best to clean Hamas out before Bush leaves 07:12  |  MARK KLEIN, M.D. 02/03/08
      7.   Hamas takes up position in homes with civilians 07:24  |  Gina 02/03/08
      8.   Thanks Sharon 08:06  |  Georgette 02/03/08
      9.   PALS LOVE BEING THE "MARTYRS" 08:22  |  Jason 02/03/08
      10.   It took the Lebanese Army three months... 08:27  |  Stuartk 02/03/08
      11.   IF GAZA IS ALL HAMAS, WIPE OUT GAZA! 08:29  |  VOICE of MOSHIACH))) 02/03/08
      12.   Coward Dhimmi Promoting Coward Dhimmitude 08:30  |  Joseph . E 02/03/08
      13.   #Shmuelshachor`s despicable speech 08:58  |  Leser 02/03/08
      14.   Who is this idiot Amos Harel 09:33  |  NA 02/03/08
      15.   Deja Vu 09:39  |  Israeli citizen 02/03/08
      16.   Amos Harel & Avi Issacharoff are wrong in this article 09:47  |  THE WARRIOR 02/03/08
      17.   Ceasefire needed 10:00  |  English Resident 02/03/08
      18.   Yes! Yes! We want that land: let`s take it now 10:03  |  Pitiful Sham 02/03/08
      19.   kol hakavod shmuelshachor 10:05  |  Yehud 02/03/08
      20.   Leser - No stoping until the jobs done! 10:06  |  IDF 02/03/08
      21.   To leser #5 10:17  |  Jethro 02/03/08
      22.   One good option 10:17  |  Clickfool 02/03/08
      23.   #6 Warrior please stop shouting. 10:21  |  Maureen Ann 02/03/08
      24.   hamas are clearly cowards 10:59  |  Adrian de Klerk 02/03/08
      25.   Israel`s last chance 11:01  |  Chris 02/03/08
      26.   Clickfool 11:01  |  G Kaplan 02/03/08
      27.   israelis will pay dearly in the long run 11:03  |  raw truth 02/03/08
      28.   6The Warrior,they`ll stop suicide bombings&rockets,if you supply 11:04  |  lakshmi 02/03/08
      29.   Israel needed revenge, Hamas is a politi cal animal 11:23  |  Fritz T. 02/03/08
      30.   "IDF should expect shooting from every home" -carpet bomb gaza 11:29  |  don 02/03/08
      31.   slaughtering civilians always cries out for revenge 11:33  |  Leona 02/03/08
      32.   Gaza 11:36  |  Millicent 02/03/08
      33.   Hitting Israelis abroad 11:40  |  Charles Wachsport 02/03/08
      34.   #6 Tou ask When will Palestinians ... know freedom? Amswer:they. 11:41  |  Vittorio 02/03/08
      35.   clickfool is right.....and wrong 11:44  |  Gregor 02/03/08
      36.   6 THE WARRIOR: We can`t even stop Talban in Afgan and you expect 11:45  |  Tupac 02/03/08
      37.   Another "great" bunch of ideas from Amos. 11:47  |  devin 02/03/08
      38.   WAITING FOR A REALLY NASTY TURNOUT 11:55  |  indrajaya 02/03/08
      39.   Clickfool, quick, where is Hamas? 12:09  |  Joe Sittizen 02/03/08
      40.   Leona, do some research 12:16  |  Jethro 02/03/08
      41.   #9 more misinformation from moaning ann 12:29  |  v hardman 02/03/08
      42.   My firm belief 12:43  |  Clickfool 02/03/08
      43.   In retrospect our national hero Arik Sharon erred disasterously. 12:53  |  Max Zinger P.Chimist 02/03/08
      44.   Anyone who thinks an opponent 12:59  |  Mark Lincoln 02/03/08
      45.   gaza 13:18  |  dawg 02/03/08
      46.   Cluck FOOL: of grooves and needles 13:18  |  Star of David 02/03/08
      47.   Where did Rambo mindset get USA in Iraq 13:30  |  Truth 02/03/08
      48.   #21 Clickfool, Since Arabs kill more people 13:34  |  Rick and TC 02/03/08
      49.   For Gregor # 14 13:38  |  Clickfool 02/03/08
      50.   Finish off Hamas 13:52  |  Nechama 02/03/08
      51.   Clickfool, your firm belief is a selective belief 14:00  |  Mark B. 02/03/08
      52.   Nechama; 14:16  |  Star of David 02/03/08
      53.   what the sam hill have they been doing till now? 14:18  |  JG 02/03/08
      54.   Screaming at the clouds - Warrior 14:22  |  Mark Lincoln 02/03/08
      55.   It was a simple plan 14:28  |  Mark Lincoln 02/03/08
      56.   When I patrolled Gaza there were no Qassams 14:28  |  Moshe 02/03/08
      57.   what is israel going to do with the pals? 14:32  |  vukovac RENO 02/03/08
      58.   #5- Number of Palestinians are worth.....??? 14:49  |  judy abeles eliasov 02/03/08
      59.   Gaza will become part of Israel 15:27  |  Zechariah 02/03/08
      60.   They ran screaming and crying. 15:47  |  M.O. 02/03/08
      61.   Mark B re Clickfool 17:02  |  Tom C 02/03/08
      62.   # 24 Adrian Know who has their hands up 17:07  |  petra 02/03/08
      63.   Question raised - what is the ratio - Israeli life vs Palestinian 17:43  |  Boris 02/03/08
      64.   Thanks for reminding me, Tom C # 61 17:44  |  Clickfool 02/03/08
      65.   Clickfool 17:50  |  James 02/03/08
      66.   Clickfool 17:50  |  James 02/03/08
      67.   Clickfool 17:53  |  Wally 02/03/08
      68.   TIME TO PUT AN END TO QASSAMS 17:56  |  Squalid Ibn Harman 02/03/08
      69.   and your point is? they always tried to the maximum nothing new. 18:09  |  ralph 02/03/08