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ANALYSIS / Uncompromising Hamas is in trouble
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: Gaza, Hamas, Ashkelon, Israel

In another few months, when Hamas leaders find time to retrace the steps that led to a large-scale Israel Defense Forces operation in the Gaza Strip, it may be that they will focus on the events of this past week.

The decision to put Ashkelon, and its 120,000 residents, within permanent range of their rockets from Gaza may turn out to have been a mistake on their part. As if it were not enough that the Israeli government is being asked to solve the continuing hardships of Sderot residents, it is now being faced with a much bigger problem in Ashkelon. Its conclusion, even if action is only taken in a month or two, is likely to be that a major military operation is needed in Gaza. Defense Minister Ehud Barak hinted as much Thursday.

A round of increased violence between Israel and Hamas takes place every two or three weeks. And each time, the latest round is more severe than the one preceding it. Last night, it seemed that the escalation was getting out of control. More than 30 rockets were fired at Israel Thursday (and close to 90 in the last two days), among them a Katyusha that scored a direct hit on a home in Ashkelon. Two Israeli civilians were injured in Thursday's barrage. The casualties on the Palestinian side were significantly worse: The air force struck 21 targets in 24 hours. The Palestinians suffered 15 dead, among them three children and a baby.
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In talks at the Defense Ministry Thursday, Ehud Barak said that the likelihood of alarge-scale ground offensive "is real and tangible." However, he added, there are "complex considerations" regarding the right time for embarking on such an operation. On Wednesday night, during a tense meeting at Sapir College with leaders of the communities bordering the Gaza Strip, Barak said that a large-scale military response is "closer than you might think."

But before the IDF launches an offensive whose chances of success are being hotly disputed in both the government and the General Staff, there are immediate steps that Israel must take. Thursday night, after putting it off for months, Barak decided to activate the Color Red rocket warning system in Ashkelon. He also held a series of phone calls with the U.S. secretary of state, the foreign ministers of Russia and Britain, Quartet envoy Tony Blair and the head of Egyptian Intelligence, General Omar Suleiman. These calls are meant to lay the international groundwork for a possible Israeli ground offensive.

Hamas, for its part, has adopted an extreme, uncompromising stance. Conversations with its leaders sometimes give rise to the suspicion that they are out of touch with the military reality on the ground, in which their forces are suffering more and more casualties. One Hamas operative went so far as to refer to the prophet Mohammed in order to stress Gaza residents? ability to withstand the pressure. "The Prophet Mohammed managed to survive for three years under siege by the infidels, while eating moldy food, or none at all," he pointed out.

But notwithstanding such bold statements, Hamas is in trouble. This stems not only from the losses it is suffering, but also from a decline in its level of support among the Gazan public. The organization has been criticized in the Strip, inter alia, for the way it distributes humanitarian aid from Arab states, providing food only to its supporters. When four out of every five Gazans live below the poverty line, this is not the kind of behavior that makes Hamas popular, even if residents do not dare express their anger in public or in the media.

A., who lives in Gaza, blames Hamas for ruining ties with every country in the world, except two: Syria and Iran. "They led us to disaster, and the price is being paid by the ordinary citizens. We have no dreams of a Palestinian state, Jerusalem or the right of return. All we want is a few hours without the electricity being cut and gasoline for our car."

M., a father of three in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, also blames Hamas for the situation, but admits that he dare not say so in public. "Everyone here is afraid to speak out against them, including those who are not connected with Fatah," he said. "Who knows what they will do to you? Several days ago, a Qassam rocket accidentally hit the home of a large, well-known clan in Beit Hanun. Even they did not come out in protest."

But M. added a caveat: "You need to understand that however angry people are with Hamas, their anger at Israel is greater."

Thursday, M. decided to take his children out of school soon after it opened. "I want them near me. Who knows what will happen? In the morning, I heard on Israeli radio about someone injured at Sapir College and we already had five dead, and I understood that this would be another day of fighting."


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      1.   sad truth 03:56  |  andy12 29/02/08
      2.   Hamas wants more Muslim fatalities 04:07  |  judith 29/02/08
      3.   Hamas deserves tsouris 04:32  |  Murray of Montreal 29/02/08
      4.   NOPE! they are at the height of their power 04:32  |  jewish doctor 29/02/08
      5.   Hamas not interested in Palestinian State 04:44  |  fiona 29/02/08
      6.   War with hamas 05:08  |  Sabra 29/02/08
      7.   military options 05:16  |  Gregor 29/02/08
      8.   The safest place to be 05:20  |  Carlton 29/02/08
      9.   The evil state is raising the stakes slowly but surely,hoping the 05:31  |  lakshmi 29/02/08
      10.   DON`T COUNT YOUR CHICKENS 05:32  |  Arik Silverman 29/02/08
      11.   Out of touch with reality 05:37  |  Johnboy 29/02/08
      12.   What makes you think 05:38  |  Baz Mann 29/02/08
      13.   Amos Harel, In a few months Israel maybe in Timbucktoo 05:49  |  Dutch 29/02/08
      14.   we better act, no cease fire, remove our leaders if they 05:52  |  ralph 29/02/08
      15.   In trouble 05:57  |  Zouzou 29/02/08
      16.   The biggest loser - #4 06:08  |  The Realist 29/02/08
      17.   Even one rocket is ""out of control" 06:10  |  B (The other one) 29/02/08
      18.   The majority of the dumb Pals still support dumb Hamas over Fatah 06:24  |  bill gordon 29/02/08
      19.   Lakshmi_How Many Christians and Moslems Have You killed In India 06:31  |  Eli 29/02/08
      20.   Doris you need an AntiPsychotic badly..we are Jews... 06:36  |  KJJ 29/02/08
      21.   Johnboy-proof that there is a military solution 06:37  |  Stephen in New York 29/02/08
      22.   Lakshimi, Dutch-dream on 06:43  |  Stephen in New York 29/02/08
      23.   SOLUTION: ARREST HAMAS 06:45  |  US CITIZEN 29/02/08
      24.   When Hamas retraces its steps.... 06:47  |  Colin Wright 29/02/08
      25.   Israel`s biggest problem? 06:48  |  Robert 29/02/08
      26.   Are u telling us, Dutch, that you`re already in Timbacktoo? 07:11  |  Mefisto 29/02/08
      27.   It must be so lakshmi, it must be if you say so! 07:12  |  Mefisto 29/02/08
      28.   Where is this leading? 07:31  |  American in Paris 29/02/08
      29.   Hamas is a proxy... 07:34  |  Esther 29/02/08
      30.   Israeli cabinet needs to be clear on goals of ground campaign 07:35  |  Voice of Reason 29/02/08
      31.   Hamas guys hold on to their jobs 07:40  |  End is near 29/02/08
      32.   IRAN IS RESPONSIBLE - DEAL WITH THEM 07:52  |  mike soda 29/02/08
      33.   The goal of Hamas is to make any place within Israel 08:00  |  Kris 29/02/08
      34.   If Cuba was rocketing Miami US would nuke 08:01  |  George Lechter 29/02/08
      35.   HAMAS working for all out war hoping to bring in Arabs& sympathy 08:16  |  PETER SM 29/02/08
      36.   its only a matter of time... 08:28  |  a king 29/02/08
      37.   When the Invasion occurs, I hope.... 08:39  |  R 29/02/08
      38.   Long-range strikes could spark Gaza invasion 08:45  |  Galvin Templar 29/02/08
      39.   rocket attacks should spard obliteration of Iran 08:49  |  ka 29/02/08
      40.   WHY ISRAEL DOESN`T DEFEND ITSELF? 08:56  |  danny 29/02/08
      41.   "COULD spark..,"defeatism seeded by jerk Rabin has taken its toll 09:39  |  Absolute Sweden 29/02/08
      42.   Do you think Hamas hasn`t prepared for a major IDF attack? 09:57  |  Clickfool 29/02/08
      43.   judith is right: one can`t fight those who prefer dying to living 10:52  |  S 29/02/08
      44.   Check mate. 10:57  |  Colin 29/02/08
      45.   Sydney 11:11  |  alan 29/02/08
      46.   Hamas is in decline 11:24  |  MARK KLEIN, M.D. 29/02/08
      47.   #10, jb, the pretensious 11:52  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 29/02/08
      48.   Injustice and oppression never win 11:53  |  TheTruth 29/02/08
      49.   "S",you`re wrong ,leaders of Hamas and the Assassin sect leaders 11:56  |  Absolute Sweden 29/02/08
      50.   You wish, Mark Klein # 22 12:09  |  Clickfool 29/02/08
      51.   Klein 22- dont let DUTCH know this 12:09  |  Joe 29/02/08
      52.   Future of the occupation 12:18  |  JJ burke 29/02/08
      53.   lakshmi 12:19  |  Joe Shmo 29/02/08
      54.   #2, judith 12:22  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 29/02/08
      55.   A Smart Plan, Not a D-Day Invasion 12:26  |  dyinglikeflies 29/02/08
      56.   ...AND THEN WHINE ABOUT ANTI-SEMITISM 12:28  |  Mohamed Malleck 29/02/08
      57.   #18 CF 12:29  |  Moshe 29/02/08
      58.   stop fooling yourself... 12:31  |  ravi 29/02/08
      59.   #15 Realist 12:41  |  Chris Linthwaite 29/02/08
      60.   The Gazans still see the IDF as occupiers 12:57  |  J Steiner 29/02/08
      61.   Hypocrites 13:11  |  Nabulsi 29/02/08
      62.   @30 Chris Linthwaite 13:11  |  Daniel 29/02/08
      63.   Trouble is Hamas should be in jail... 13:11  |  Michael J 29/02/08
      64.   Hamas has no agenda... 13:32  |  Doug 29/02/08
      65.   #33 and what about the siege of Gaza? more harmful as occupation 13:32  |  Ben Sina 29/02/08
      66.   #18 boris and the maginot line 13:33  |  v hardman 29/02/08
      67.   Yes Zouzou, holy places where ever a Muslims does live 13:34  |  Karl 29/02/08
      68.   Reply to Clickfool (#23) 13:37  |  MARK KLEIN, M.D. 29/02/08
      69.   CLICKNEBECH#18 YOUR WISHFUL THINKING 13:38  |  Ian 29/02/08
      70.   AT THE END OF THE DAYS 13:45  |  indrajaya