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Republican contender John McCain. (AP)
When McCain and Obama face off, Israel may find itself in the eye of the storm
By Shmuel Rosner, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: U.S. elections, Iraq, Obama 
The Republican contender is counting on the American voters' hatred for anything that reeks of defeat.

Republican contender John McCain's campaign team is preparing files with incriminating information about Democratic candidate Barack Obama. McCain's advisers are eagerly looking forward to the great debate between these two candidates. They believe McCain's agenda, while perhaps less rosy, is more convincing than Obama's. Israel may find itself in the eye of the storm, for McCain's people have no intention of backpedaling from their claim that Obama's policy endangers Israel. This will not be easy for Jerusalem, whose diplomats will have to maneuver carefully in a political minefield. Obama will now have to decide whether to use the endorsement McCain got Thursday from former secretary of state James Baker against McCain - the way Robert Malley and Zbigniew Brzezinski were used against Obama regarding Israel.

McCain is counting on the American voters' hatred for anything that reeks of defeat. "I will not surrender," he said on Wednesday in a campaign rally. In other words, the other candidate is going to offer to surrender in Iraq. I offer victory.

Iraq will be the focus of the candidates' debate, which will also cover a number of foreign policy differences - from Iran to Cuba, Venezuela to Pakistan. (An update in What To Read: Voters think that Obama is not strong enough on foreign policy)
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This will be an interesting test for the American voter. A clash between the loathing many feel toward the war in Iraq and the part of the American ethos that seeks victory. The power of the "winner" factor versus the fear of becoming a "loser."

If McCain could only persuade the voters that such a victory were still possible, if he could ignite the spark of hope, perhaps he would, in turn, sway public opinion. That would be a fascinating development as well as an insult of sorts to President Bush, who failed in his own efforts to win over the public.

But McCain will offer not only the hope of victory but a rational argument for the need not to withdraw. "If we left, they wouldn't be establishing a base, they'd be taking a country and I'm not going to allow that to happen," he said. "I will not surrender to Al-Qaida."

At a debate last Tuesday, Obama and Clinton were asked about this possibility: "If this scenario plays out and the Americans get out in total and Al-Qaida resurges and Iraq goes to hell, do you hold the right, in your mind as American president, to re-invade, to go back into Iraq to stabilize it?" asked moderator Tim Russert.

It was a question neither Clinton nor Obama felt comfortable with. "I will always reserve the right to make sure that we are looking out for American interests," Obama replied. McCain's people filed that answer as well. They believe their candidate has a much better answer - the U.S. will not leave before ensuring stability, therefore it won't have to return.

Obama responded at a campaign gathering of his own two days ago: "I have some news for John McCain, and that is that there was no such thing as Al-Qaida in Iraq until George Bush and John McCain decided to invade Iraq."

These exchanges are seen in Washington as a prelude to the real election show. Hillary Clinton is becoming increasingly less relevant as the McCain-Obama battle captures most of the attention. Obama and Hillary have one more round, next Tuesday, before she will have to concede defeat - unless she manages to surprise everyone yet again.

In any case, McCain's political future depends on a military rather than a political figure - General David Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, who is due to submit his report on the progress to stabilize Iraq in Washington this April.

The Democrats, asked to explain the American troops' success in reducing the violence level in Iraq, have repeatedly said the army is winning, but the political process is stuck, so that the military reinforcement Bush initiated and McCain pushed for was unnecessary.

But McCain argues that the political process is progressing as well. The Iraqi parliament has managed to surprise even him and pass important legislation. In any case, Obama, who wants to withdraw, will have to prove otherwise. Obama has an answer: the fear of imminent withdrawal finally got the Iraqis moving. If McCain is elected, thus ensuring an American presence in Iraq for generations, will bring the opposite results. It will calm the Iraqis and roll back the political progress.


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  1.   There is no winning . . . 07:40  |  GP 29/02/08
  2.   I REMIND MCCAIN 08:31  |  indrajaya 29/02/08
  3.   McCain and Obama 10:27  |  Naim S. Mahlab 29/02/08
  4.   Naim S. Mahlab. In Canada. 12:28  |  Maureen Ann 29/02/08
  5.   Maureen surely you jest 12:59  |  Ariel 29/02/08
  6.   SILENCE FOR 3 DAYS 13:10  |  indrajaya 29/02/08
  7.   # 1 naim 13:12  |  Axel 29/02/08
  8.   PEACEFUL OBAMA WILL PREVAIL 13:36  |  indrajaya 29/02/08
  9.   Naim Mahlab 13:48  |  Julie 29/02/08
  10.   Ariel to Maureen Ann 13:55  |  Cynical 29/02/08
  11.   Axel, #5 14:00  |  Bradley 29/02/08
  12.   A Medical Diagnosis 14:21  |  Knott Bushman 29/02/08
  13.   If this happens, only Israel will suffer 14:21  |  POP 29/02/08
  14.   who is afraid of Barak Obama? 14:41  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 29/02/08
  15.   Who Are McCain`s Advisors 14:59  |  Yosemite 29/02/08
  16.   Mistaken about WHO will be in Iraq 15:13  |  Gayle 29/02/08
  17.   silence for three days? 15:25  |  Mark 29/02/08
  18.   US is like Hitler in WW2 15:34  |  Mark 29/02/08
  19.   McCain wants to make it $5 Trillion for Israel 15:58  |  TimothyL 29/02/08
  20.   President McCain 16:12  |  Samaritan 29/02/08
  21.   2 Naim S nahlab,what on earth are you talking about?The invasion 16:13  |  lakshmi 29/02/08
  22.   As a Jew, a liberal Jew at that, I suspect Obama is not going to 16:21  |  Dan 29/02/08
  23.   MCCain vs Obama 16:24  |  Alphonso Whitfield 29/02/08
  24.   Iraq and not Israel will be the focus 16:25  |  David Hoffman 29/02/08
  25.   Al Quida and Iraq 16:31  |  ari 29/02/08
  26.   McCain vs Obama 16:34  |  Alan Charles 29/02/08
  27.   Our stupid invasion 16:35  |  Mark 29/02/08
  28.   Cause to Al-Qaeda? 16:38  |  Tyler Humpton 29/02/08
  29.   I REMIND INDAJAYA 16:38  |  ARI 29/02/08
  30.   Impeachment 16:41  |  Mark 29/02/08
  31.   Hey Lefties .. we`re here now and not there 16:53  |  GZLives 29/02/08
  32.   Dan # 10 16:54  |  American in NY 29/02/08
  33.   McCain: Better we go bankrupt over Iraq? 16:55  |  MARK KLEIN, M.D. 29/02/08
  34.   ANTI-BALLISTIC SHIELD 16:59  |  Patrick Warner 29/02/08
  35.   Obama 17:04  |  Yariv 29/02/08
  36.   If Not Clinton , Then McCain 17:12  |  Gad ben Rosen 29/02/08
  37.   AIPAC running the US elections 17:14  |  Chanalau, Tova 29/02/08
  38.   As #10 confirms, for Jews, Israel comes first, after the USA 17:17  |  Chanalau, Tova 29/02/08
  39.   # 6 Axel......Al Qaeda was in Iraq in 2002 17:21  |  Lynn 29/02/08
  40.   Win-Lose, McCain-Obama. CRUDE FRAME! 17:22  |  John Mackie 29/02/08
  41.   # 8 Julie of Montreal 17:23  |  Lynn 29/02/08
  42.   # 9 lakshmi....Al Qaeda was in Iraq in 2002 17:24  |  Lynn 29/02/08
  43.   McCain Destroys more! 17:24  |  Atoo 29/02/08
  44.   #2 - Naim S. Mahlab 17:38  |  MichaelF 29/02/08
  45.   #10 - Dan 17:41  |  MichaelF 29/02/08
  46.   War McCain 17:42  |  empyrius 29/02/08
  47.   #7 - indrajaya 17:43  |  MichaelF 29/02/08
  48.   Israel and US elections 17:49  |  El-Birawi 29/02/08
  49.   10 Dan,so much for liberal jews&their blind support of the brutal 17:52  |  lakshmi 29/02/08
  50.   Stupid foreigners discus American politics. 17:55  |  Hilda 29/02/08
  51.   To Lynn 18:00  |  MichaelF 29/02/08
  52.   Americans Hate to Lose? 18:02  |  Donna 29/02/08
  53.   Conspiracy theory regarding Slowman 18:05  |  Shmuel Rosner 29/02/08
  54.   Obama, Clinton, McCain 18:08  |  Bill 29/02/08
  55.   Obama 18:11  |  Bill 29/02/08
  56.   Al Qaeda should erect monument to Bush 18:22  |  Jon 29/02/08
  57.   #12 Lynn 18:29  |  George 29/02/08
  58.   #10 Dan 18:35  |  george 29/02/08
  59.   LYNN (EXCELLENT INTELLIGENT) 18:38  |  indrajaya 29/02/08
  60.   To Ariel - Maureen is not jesting... 18:39  |  Lee 29/02/08
  61.   # 18, MICHAEL IF 18:47  |  indrajaya 29/02/08
  62.   Obama is like a Barbie Doll, "Pure Plastic." 19:20  |  Stephen. 29/02/08
  63.   Surrender what????? 19:35  |  Jane 29/02/08
  64.   On the issue of Israel 19:39  |  Mark Lincoln 29/02/08
  65.   I am sick of talking about this non-existent war 20:15  |  Greg 29/02/08
  66.   Rosner 20:17  |  RM 29/02/08
  67.   FINALLY 20:18  |  TOBIA 29/02/08
  68.   EL_BRAWI IS RIGHT 20:37  |  TOBIA 29/02/08
  69.   Hoping McCain would make Israel the main topic 20:41  |  Candida 29/02/08
  70.   Winning is Knowing How to Lose When You Have Lost 20:42  |  Dorothy 29/02/08
  71.