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Crisis in the options market By Amos Harel Tags: Israel, Hamas, Qassam Israel has been mulling three possible courses of action in the face of the growing Hamas threat in the Gaza Strip. The first is an extensive military operation, in which the Israel Defense Forces would take control of parts of the Strip. The second involves reaching an indirect agreement with the Hamas government on an extended truce that would include the release of abducted soldier Gilad Shalit in return for 450 Palestinian prisoners. The last is a continuation of the current situation - fighting in varying degrees of intensity, entailing heavy losses for the terror organizations but also the frequent bombardment of Sderot and its environs. Days of heavy fighting, like Wednesday, bring the moment of decision closer and could well eliminate the third option. The catch is that forgoing it would not make the other two options any more promising. The pace of events in the South this week was nothing less than dizzying. On Sunday, the media were busy with the IDF's intensive preparations for the possibility that Hamas would march thousands of Gazan Palestinians into Israel. Furloughs were canceled, units were sent forward from training bases and senior commanders stayed in the field to supervise the preparations. By Monday, it became clear that Hamas had chosen to avoid a confrontation. Only a few thousand people attended the rally in Gaza and only a few dozen bothered showing up at the Erez crossing. Hamas made up for its disappointment with the poor turnout by firing rockets at Sderot, injuring Yossi Haimov, 10, in an incident that was chillingly televised. On Wednesday, the IDF and the Shin Bet security service killed five Hamas activists who had returned to the Gaza Strip from training in Iran and Syria. Hamas retaliated with almost 50 rockets, one of which killed Roni Yihye at Sapir College, adjacent to Sderot. Ashkelon was also hit. Little attention was paid to the fact that one rocket landed near a kindergarten (which was empty) in one of the kibbutzim. The scenario of the "strategic Qassam" that pushes Israel into a major operation has not looked more tangible for a long time. Advertisement In a week in which one Israeli was killed, nearly 20 Palestinians were also killed, among them civilians and children. The military arms of the terror organizations in the Gaza Strip have been badly hit. A generous estimate gives them no more than 20,000 militants. In an average week, they lose about 20 to death or serious injury. The Strip, despite its appalling living conditions, does not provide unlimited reserves of new gunmen. Suicide terrorists barely need training. But Hamas is trying to produce skilled fighters, who can cause losses and damage to the IDF. For now, it seems to be losing fighters more quickly than it can train their replacements. This blunt analysis is not enough to prevent a large Israeli operation. The dead of Sderot, and the depression evident in every television report from the town, are gradually nudging the government toward a decision. The IDF has been making preparations for quite a while, but the political leadership has not yet given the final authorization. The prime minister, the defense and foreign ministers and the chief of staff are not keen on a major ground operation. This week they were shown, in great detail, the potential cost: hundreds of IDF casualties in an incursion into the Gaza Strip, and especially in holding parts of it subsequently; a very real possibility of having to restore the military government; high losses among Palestinian civilians, which would be fully exploited by the well-oiled Hamas propaganda machine; and an acute threat to the standing of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Lessons learned The army, implementing a lesson learned from the extensive chatter in the Second Lebanon War, is not detailing its operational plans this time. But it would be a mistake to assume that even in the most extreme scenario Israel would want to occupy the entire Strip. It can be assumed that if it can avoid doing so, the IDF will not enter the most densely populated areas: the Jabalya and Shati refugee camps in the north as well as Gaza City and the camps in the center. The IDF is mainly interested in the Qassam launching areas (Beit Hanun and Beit Lahia, in the north) and in weapons smuggling (Rafah, in the south). The possibility must be considered that Israel might well confine itself to a retaliatory ground operation several weeks in length, without aspiring to stop the Qassams or the smuggling completely. The aim, in this case, would be to "exact a price" for purposes of deterrence - to apply pressure, both military and economic, that is so intolerable as to force Hamas to agree to prolonged calm under conditions more comfortable for Israel. A similar operation is currently underway in another corner of the Middle East: the invasion by the Turkish army of PKK strongholds in the Kurdish area of northern Iraq. The volleys of violence between Israel and Hamas have been occurring more often of late, taking more lives. The tension is also increasing the motivation of the various mediators and peace-seekers to find a solution that will neutralize the Big Bang. On Tuesday Egypt's intelligence minister, Omar Suleiman, is scheduled to arrive for an unusual and important visit. Cairo has been increasing its involvement in Gaza since the Hamas breach of the wall at Rafah in late January. Egypt has also shown greater willingness recently, in its talks with Israel, to stop the weapons smuggling from its territory. A committee composed of senior officers from both sides is under consideration. In addition, Cairo supports the presence of an international force in the Strip. There had been talk of bringing the European inspectors back to the Rafah border crossing, in the hope that it would reopen, but Egypt is apparently also toying with the idea of having soldiers from several Arab states in the Strip. Perhaps a pan-Arab umbrella would extricate Cairo from its Gaza entanglement. At the same time, various Israeli figures, including retired generals, have been holding indirect talks with Hamas, largely through European mediation. In the context of one of these channels, a document containing a proposal for a temporary truce was reportedly issued by Hamas. The major stumbling block for the Palestinians and the Israelis is not in fact in the Gaza Strip, but rather in the West Bank. Israel could decide that it is prepared to live with the strengthening of the Hamas military in Gaza, but the threat from the West Bank is more urgent and more dangerous. In all previous hudnas (truces), Hamas sought immunity from arrest by Israel of its men in the West Bank. The IDF and the Shin Bet view the power of arrest as an absolute, inviolable necessity, the only barrier to an extensive wave of terror in the center of Israel. This week, GOC Central Command Gadi Shamni told President Shimon Peres that if the IDF presence in West Bank towns is ended, Hamas will take them over "within two or three days." Siniora, Abbas In the background (in light of the media silence, it is sometimes easy to forget), are the ongoing contacts between Israel and the Palestinian Authority over the permanent-status agreement. How would Abbas respond to a major IDF operation in the Gaza Strip, if all of the mediation attempts fail? As usual, this is a question of degree and proportion. The PA fears a bloodbath in Gaza. It will certainly pay lip service to the condemnation of the tyranny of the Israeli occupation, but top Israeli government and military officials believe that Abbas would not shed a tear if Hamas were to take a bit of a beating from the IDF. To a certain extent, this would be a rerun of the situation in Lebanon, where the people around Prime Minister Fouad Siniora supported Israel's attack on Hezbollah until Israel, in their opinion, went too far. For now, and until it chooses one of the two main options (or, more likely, is dragged into a choice), Israel is trying nearly every imaginable means and has not reached the tipping point on an extensive ground operation. After the death at Sapir College, the rate of air attacks was increased. Attacks on Hamas political leaders are also receiving serious consideration. And the idea of causing a series of sonic booms over the Gaza Strip after every Qassam firing, as a collective scare technique, was recently reintroduced. In the meantime, the economic situation among Gaza's residents is worsening. Many families have used up the supplies they purchased in the Egyptian towns of Rafah and El Arish after the wall was breached, which lasted them for the past month. Israel is letting a minimal amount of gasoline into the Strip: 75,000 liters a week, or less than a liter per week for each car. The Palestinians find solutions: A cab ride in town costs just NIS 1, and if necessary they walk long distances. Public transportation, as well as diesel-fueled emergency vehicles, is less affected. Basic foodstuffs and other items are still being transported from Israel into the Gaza Strip, inter alia at the Sufa crossing point during Monday's protest march. "Luxuries" like cigarettes or soft drinks are out of the question, however. Those who can afford to, smoke Egyptian cigarettes, smuggled from Rafah, and complain about the flavor. In the war of attrition in the South, the fact that the other side is suffering more does not change the difficult atmosphere in Sderot one whit. Channel 10 scored a coup this week when it broadcast footage of Yossi Haimov and his sister Maria, 8, seconds after Yossi was hit by a Qassam. The images rattled every parent who saw them. But the next day the channel raised the stakes and went too far; its reporter went to the hospital to interview the pair "about the situation." Ten-year-old Yossi said he was fed up and doesn't want to return to Sderot. Maria complained that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert doesn't care because "he isn't doing anything." Olmert's problem is the impression taken away by viewers after this tempestuous week: Maria is crying and Olmert, who was on a state visit to Japan, is far away, "not doing anything." Despite having been severely burned in Lebanon, these scenes and voices are gradually bringing the IDF closer to a ground operation in the Gaza Strip. No politician who wants to be reelected can ignore them for long. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Girl power Female MKs learn martial arts in order to defend themselves against sexual assault. Not Jewish enough U.K. Jewish school gets sued for barring pupil over mother's non-Orthodox conversion.

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