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Last update - 06:45 28/02/2008
Hamas response / Calculated escalation
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: IDF, Gaza, Israel, Hamas

Hamas responded Wednesday to the assassination of five of its operatives in Khan Yunis with an "object lesson" of some of the means at its disposal. Sderot and the Negev communities came under a murderous barrage of more than 40 Qassam rockets, killing one student at the Sapir College and injuring a number of other people. Ashkelon, a target Hamas strikes less frequently, suffered a number of rockets that managed to disrupt some of the city's electricity.

Ashkelon has been attacked at least five times in the past by long-range Katyushas and Qassams. But until now the rockets have fallen in open areas or the city's southern suburbs. Wednesday's rocket, which fell near the city's Barzilai Medical Center, was a harsh illustration of the fact that tens of thousands more Israelis are now in range of Hamas fire. A major escalation, such as a large-scale Israel Defense Forces ground operation in the Gaza Strip, could bring Hamas strikes on Ashdod, as well.

Those who decided on the targeted killing in Khan Yunis - the prime minister, the defense minister and, it is to be assumed, the foreign minister (standing in for Olmert while he was in Japan) certainly took into account the expected fierce response. Hamas has been trying for some time to create a balance of deterrence with Israel in the Gaza Strip. For every large-scale strike on its people, it has responded in recent months with massive rocket barrages.
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The organization especially wants to see targeted assassinations taken out of the equation. Hamas seems to believe that if Israel pays an impossible price for the assassinations, it will avoid them. This is critical issue for Hamas, whose senior political figures are constantly worried about being killed, as were their predecessors, Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi. The five Hamas activists who were killed were known to have returned to the Gaza Strip after the wall fell at Rafah, following training in Iran and Syria. The Shin Bet security service hinted that they had undergone intensive training for a special project. Another kidnapping? Long-range rockets? Suicide bombings? Clearly, the theat was serious enough to decide to strike them immediately, even if it meant dozens of rockets on Sderot and Ashkelon.

As in previous rounds of violence, Israel can be expected to deliver a harsh response of its own. However, such action is not immediately expected to include sending large-scale ground forces into the Gaza Strip; preparations for such an operation have not yet been completed. A major ground operation might come in the spring, and even then, Israel will probably prefer dealing with certain areas of the Strip, and to avoid as much as possible a wholesale occupation. In total contrast to Lebanon in 2006, it is impossible to identify at any level - from the cabinet to the Gaza Brigade - a desire to go to war. However every Israeli casualty, especially in Sderot, brings the IDF a little closer to a major operation.

Under the influence of the dramatic media reports, one could forget that only two weeks ago, following the wounding of the Twito brothers in Sderot, we experienced a similar escalation. The tension relaxed, or simply disappeared from the agenda, following the assassination of Hezbollah terror chief Imad Mughniyah in Damascus. This time, too, if no more Israelis are killed, the tension may slowly dissipate. Hamas, at least as it seems for now, does not want to drag Israel into all-out conflict.




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    • Bookmark to del.icio.us  
     
    Power to the people
    Egypt plans to provide all of Gaza's electricity, to wean dependency on Israel.
    Calculated escalation
    Hamas has been trying for some time to create a balance of deterrence with Israel.
      1.   how dumb no not in response to killing of rather because we exist 03:47  |  ralph 28/02/08
      2.   Hamas is Honest 04:18  |  Suliman 28/02/08
      3.   Death By a 1000 Cuts - The "Strategy" of the New Israel 04:41  |  Tod Zuckerman 28/02/08
      4.   #1 Sulliman, I agree with some of what you say 06:12  |  Johnboy 28/02/08
      5.   Olmert is committing war crimes against Israel by ... 06:26  |  Ali 28/02/08
      6.   Obvious 06:29  |  Paul 28/02/08
      7.   Honest terror? 06:31  |  Paul 28/02/08
      8.   there is no grand scheme here 06:36  |  Charles Morgan 28/02/08
      9.   Stop playing their game 06:42  |  Al 28/02/08
      10.   Jeez what happened ? 06:52  |  GZLives 28/02/08
      11.   Where is the Phalanx anti-missiles instead of Dome Heads? 07:29  |  The Archives 28/02/08
      12.   IDF keep up the good work of hitting the terrrorists hard 07:58  |  Voice of Reason 28/02/08
      13.   Democracy in the Arab countries. 08:23  |  Jean Van Daem 28/02/08
      14.   #1-Hamas is Honest 09:59  |  Friend 28/02/08
      15.   Isn`t it Israel that`s escalating, not Hamas? 10:16  |  Michael 28/02/08
      16.   #4 10:44  |  funkyyaya 28/02/08
      17.   Michael and the garden path 11:39  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 28/02/08
      18.   One "murderous barrage" begets another 12:04  |  dana 28/02/08
      19.   JOHNBOY 12:26  |  danny 28/02/08
      20.   ARE THEY BUYING ROCKETS WHOLESALE? 13:39  |  petra 28/02/08
      21.   Michael doesn`t understand Hudna 18:06  |  john 28/02/08
      22.   the `escalation` is miscalculated 19:07  |  frenz 28/02/08
      23.   18 dana,as one of the posters on the other thread said: precision 23:55  |  lakshmi 28/02/08
      24.   stupid writing which is totally out of touch with reality you dir 01:10  |  ralph 29/02/08
      25.   #19 Danny needs to read more widely 02:02  |  Johnboy 29/02/08
      26.   #22 - Johnboy 07:29  |  Michael 29/02/08
      27.   #19 14:16  |  Harri 29/02/08
      28.   Israel held to occupied territories on ground 14:44  |  American 29/02/08
      29.   Poor poor Israel 16:54  |  Jiminy 29/02/08
      30.   #25 Michael is another who needs to read more widely 05:22  |  Johnboy 01/03/08
      31.   NUCLEAR HISTORY 18:46  |  Zen 01/03/08
      32.   NUCLEAR FUTURE 18:51  |  Zen 01/03/08
      33.   #32 zen in fools paradise 01:32  |  sev 02/03/08
      34.   28 american 10:04  |  No fool 02/03/08
      35.   Johnboy 11:08  |  TelAviv 02/03/08
      36.   Johnboy you know wrong 11:16  |  Aby 02/03/08
      37.   johnboy`s message 19:34  |  jon 02/03/08
      38.   Sev #33 19:41  |  Zen 02/03/08
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