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ANALYSIS: In the end blood was shed in Sderot, not Gaza
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: gaza, hamas, sderot

It should not have come as a surprise that the Qassam rockets struck Sderot several moments after the Palestinian demonstration south of the Erez crossing died out. The small number of protesters the organizers managed to rally did not meet the expectations or the preparations of the Israeli security forces, and certainly not those of the media.

But the lack of a story at Erez quickly changed with the horrifying scenes from Sderot - and with it so did the media's attention: The desperate situation of Gazan children under an economic siege moved to the immediate suffering of Sderot children, after one of them, Yossi Haimov, suffered injuries from Qassam rocket fragments to his shoulder.

In interviews in the Palestinian press on Sunday, the organizers of the protest discussed their plans to bring tens of thousands of Gaza Strip residents out on the streets. In practice, only several thousand came - most of them school teachers - and only a few hundred actually came close to the Erez crossing.
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Why did Hamas not bring the masses it promised to protest near the fence bordering Israel? There are a number of possible explanations. It is possible that Hamas, as some Palestinian journalists in the Gaza Strip argue, was not really planning to bring a mass of protesters to the fence. The protest was only one in a series of actions that the group is planning in the coming weeks aimed at undermining the Israeli siege of the territory.

The fact that the IDF and the police deployed large forces, was an achievement for the Palestinians. It served a twin purpose: drawing media attention to the difficulties of the Gazans, while at the same time draining the Israeli security forces by drawing thousands of troops and policemen to safeguard against a breach that never came. The moment it was clear to the Palestinians that the IDF is well prepared to meet the threat, they opted not to create a real confrontation near the fence.

And this is the point that the IDF - for obvious reasons - likes to stress. "The other side," army officers argued last night, "understood that this time we are serious: We are well prepared and we will not play any games. They know that we will use all means in order to block a march into Israeli territory and they opted not to clash with us."

The same sources note that Palestinian civilians were not excited about serving as cannon fodder for Hamas propaganda. The people voted with their feet - and did not risk getting shot in the legs by sniper fire, if they came close to the fence. Maybe.

Clearly the success of such demonstration depends, at least in part, on the element of surprise. If Israel is ready for it, it is much harder to achieve anything. And one should not forget the bad weather. The rain that fell on Gaza on Monday certainly did not add to the demonstrators' enthusiasm.

Still, one should not exaggerate the scale of Hamas' failure. Rather than organize the rally itself, Hamas co-operated with the organizer, an independent parliamentarian. The Hamas media barely made the effort to call on the masses to participate in the rally. It is possible that from Hamas's point of view, photographs of school children holding hands against the siege were enough at this point, particularly if at the end they also include photographs of youths throwing stones at the Erez crossing. More stormy marches will be reserved as ammunition for the latter stages of the struggle.

In recent days Hamas has mostly focused on a different arena: against Fatah in the West Bank. The death of Majd al-Barghouti, a Hamas imam, in a Palestinian Authority prison, offered Hamas an easy chance to attack the PA in the Arab media.

The PA's security organizations were portrayed once more as collaborators with Israel and the United States who do not hesitate to torture and kill, even when their victim is a religious figure. The thousands of Palestinians who participated in the imam's funeral on Sunday highlighted the fact that the PA is trying hard to forget: Hamas is still popular in the West Bank.

From Israel's point of view, the promised confrontation at Erez appeared to be farcical. Dozens of photographers on a knoll at the southern side of Moshav Nativ HaAsara, and across from them, on the horizon, smoke rising from burning tires that Palestinian demonstrators set ablaze. Later, youths moved toward the Erez crossing, throwing stones, and destroying equipment. A group of demonstrators entered the area that Palestinian workers used to cross on their way to jobs in Israel. Security forces blocked both sides and arrested those inside. Some were released a little later, when it turned out they were just children.

In the fracas, one IDF officer was lightly injured from a rubber bullet accidentally shot by a Border Policeman. This seems to have been the peak of the confrontation.

The terrifying images were caught by the media several kilometers to the east, in Sderot, and this time they were shocking. A television camera showed a 10-year old boy, Yossi Haimov, seriously injured in his shoulder, while his younger sister was in agony due to her concern for him.

Did the scenes from Sderot, captured in real time, bring a military operation in the Gaza Strip closer? This is by now the standard question. The answer, for now, is no, but the continued threat to the communities bordering the Gaza Strip is bringing a major operation closer, even if it is moving very slowly.

Related articles:
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  • ANALYSIS: Mass Gaza march puts Hamas in a win-win situation
  • Gaza protest of Israeli blockade yields disappointing turnout
  • News / Woman, two children hurt in Qassam attack on Sderot
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