Would Obama be supportive of an Israel governed by Likud?

No, the candidate did not say that he will not support Israel in such a case. Not even close. But he did make a questionable comment that can be seen as meddling in the internal politics of Israel

1.

Imagine Benjamin Netanyahu - the chairman of the Likud Party and according to all recent polls the leading candidate to become the next Israeli prime minister - saying something along the lines of: There are people who claim that I need to accept a Democratic nominee as friendly toward Israel - but this is not necessarily true, as I think the policies of the Republican Party are much wiser.

Imagine him saying this - and the outrage that would follow such statement.

It is really not hard to do.

And now look at what candidate Barack Obama - according to most polls the next American president - was saying about Netanyahu's party, the Likud, the other day, as he was trying to woo the Jewish vote in Cleveland, Ohio.

2.

First the quote: "I think there is a strain within the pro-Israel community that says unless you adopt a unwavering pro-Likud approach to Israel that you're anti-Israel and that can't be the measure of our friendship with Israel."

Now my interpretation - and one must admit, the candidate himself made his statement in a nuanced way and will probably argue that my interpretation is going much too far. Anyways, here's what I think he was saying:

I do not agree with the policies of the Likud Party. I also don't think it is mandatory for someone to accept the policies of the Likud as to be considered a friend of Israel. That's why you can still count me as a friend.

3.

The thing worthy of attention here: Obama was not shy about expressing political preferences regarding Israel. The fact that Obama does not agree with the policies of the Likud Party should not be an astounding surprise. And of course he is right: Supporting Likud and supporting Israel is not the same thing. However, the fact that Obama mentions a party by name - singling it out as an example - can be seen as more problematic. By doing so, he is basically telling both American and future Israeli voters this: If Israel elects Netanyahu and Americans elect Obama - we might have a problem.

4.

The irony here is quite entertaining. I've been hearing numerous Obama supporters warning from the tendency of Israelis to meddle in American politics. They were furious when anonymous sources in the Israeli government expressed "concern" regarding an Obama administration. They were outraged when former Israeli ambassador to Washington Danny Ayalon expressed "doubt" regarding Obama's positions and honesty when it comes to views regarding Israel.

I don't hear these voices of protest now. They probably think Obama is right to distance himself from the views associated with the Likud Party. As I wrote not long ago Israeli interference in American politics is not a new phenomenon. And I also wrote that by doing it Israelis are merely copying American behavior.

5.

And just to make it clear: I'm not naïve. We all know that Obama and Netanyahu will not be the perfect match. Obama will probably prefer a left wing Israeli coalition; Netanyahu will probably prefer a Republican like Bush (but not like Bush senior) in the Oval Office.

And something else also needs to be clarified: I'd assume that all American candidates would rather have an Ehud - Olmert or Barak - as Prime Minister of Israel rather than a Netanyahu.

Netanyahu had rocky relations with the first Clinton administration (when he was prime minister), and there's no reason to expect that he'll have better relations with the second Clinton (With McCain it is less obvious, but the fact that McCain's best Israeli friend is Barak is somewhat telling).

6.

Yet again, preferring Kadima or Labor over Likud is one thing, saying so is quite another. Especially for a candidate that is constantly barraged with questions reflecting doubt regarding his positions toward Israel. I'd guess he probably knows this was a mistake - and if not him, than his advisors.

And you might not remember, but Obama and Netanyahu had a cordial meeting a while ago that went quite well. They were discussing Iran and Netanyahu is now claiming some of the credit for convincing Obama to take some action on this pressing matter.

7.

If you want a conspiracy theory explaining this quote by Obama, I have it for you.

Obama is now under attack from the left. Ralph Nader was accusing him Sunday of being too pro-Israel. This is Obama's way of calming the other constituency he is trying to woo (the radical left): Don't worry, I'm still the liberal you all expect me to be.

Do I buy this theory? No way.

Will other people buy it? You bet.

8.

One last thing - and let's try another mind game here. Imagine Obama saying not what he said, but something like this: "I think there is a strain within the pro-peace community that says unless you adopt a unwavering anti-Likud approach to Israel that you're anti-peace and that can't be the measure of our pursuit of peace".

Now imagine the liberal Jewish left tearing him apart.

Again, it's easy.

See what I mean?