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Last update - 11:18 25/02/2008 Looking for an exit By Moshe Arens Tags: Gaza, IDF, Hamas The Olmert government by now has run out of all conceivable excuses for not taking the only action that will remove the threat of Qassam rockets and mortar shells from the Israelis living in Sderot and the communities in the vicinity of the Gaza Strip. That action, as everybody knows, is sending IDF ground forces deep enough into the Gaza Strip so as to put the rockets and mortar shells out of range of these communities. The foolish argument that Palestinian terrorists might then start using longer-range rockets dates back to the argument made during the Second Lebanon War: that a ground force action that would move the Katyushas out of range of the settlements in northern Israel would still leave them exposed to longer-range rockets. The result was that the ground forces were not ordered to move in and that the short-range rockets, the ones that are so easy to move and conceal, and so hard to locate and attack from the air, kept raining down on Israel until the very last day of the war. Advertisement Is there really anybody who has not learned the lesson that it is easier to deal with long-range rockets than with the small, short-range rockets? This is certainly the case in the Gaza Strip. So now the excuse for letting Israeli civilians to remain under rocket fire is that we do not have an exit strategy. Or, in other words, how are we going to get out after we have gone in? "Exits" are the name of the game in the business of venture capitalism. Make an investment in a start-up enterprise and get out as soon as you can make a sizable profit. Of course, nowadays everybody in our government is very business-minded, but one should hope that our ministers nevertheless realize that the fate of Sderot's children, whom the government is obliged to protect, bears no resemblance to the kind of risks that venture capitalists take upon themselves. A cost-benefit analysis may be relevant when considering alternatives that all achieve the desired objective, but are totally irrelevant when only a single move will achieve this goal; which in this case is providing safety for the Israelis living in the vicinity of the Gaza Strip. So for those foolish enough to believe that they can foretell the course of future events, and think that they can know under what circumstances the IDF, once having entered the Gaza Strip, will or will not be able to withdraw, I would suggest considering some possible scenarios. In one, the optimistic scenario, the IDF is sent into the Gaza Strip, and is successful in preventing the recurrence of rocket attacks after it has withdrawn. This scenario is not certain, but also not impossible. In another, the worst-case scenario, upon the withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip, rocketing recurs. This also is not certain, but possible. Obviously, there are any number of possible intermediate scenarios. Now, even in the worst-case scenario, the residents of Sderot and the communities in the vicinity of the Gaza Strip will have had a respite from daily danger and lives will have been saved and property damage avoided during the period that the IDF is in the Gaza Strip. There will then be time to consider other options, take other initiatives, and the government will be free to decide if and when to withdraw. In the optimistic scenario, the objective of providing safety for the civilians living and working in the vicinity of the Gaza Strip will have been achieved over the long run. Both scenarios, as well as the intermediate scenarios, are better than the status quo, which threatens daily danger to the lives of Israeli civilians in the vicinity of the Gaza Strip. How difficult is sending ground troops into the Gaza Strip going to be? Considering the months that have been available to the IDF for planning, preparation, and training for this mission, the intimate knowledge of the terrain, and the great superiority in numbers and equipment, this is certainly not the most difficult mission that the IDF has had to perform. However, one thing should be clear: it is not going get easier as time goes by. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are bringing in weapons and ammunition, are training and preparing, and getting stronger. So better sooner rather than later. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Personalized workout Boutique gyms is the next big thing - for those who can pay. No to non-violence 'Human chain' against the blockade on gaza yields disappointing turnout.   1.   Why did not they do it yesterday ? 12:14  |  Vitaly 25/02/08   2.   What are the politiciens waiting for ? 12:21  |  Jean Van Daem 25/02/08   3.   DISENGAGEMENT FAILED,SHARON REST IN PEACE,RETAKE GAZA! TOLD U SO! 13:02  |  VOICE of MOSHIACH))) 25/02/08   4.   gaza invasion 14:39  |  geroge 25/02/08   5.   Run that best-case by me again, Arens.... 15:10  |  Johnboy 25/02/08   6.   Looking For An Exit 15:13  |  Yosef Goldberg 25/02/08   7.   GAZA WILL BE IDF LARGEST CEMETERY 16:58  |  Mark 25/02/08   8.   It`s Yoel Marcus,an Osloist who talks about an "exit strategy" 17:18  |  Absolute Sweden 25/02/08   9.   It comes down to one thing Olmert is incapable as a PM 17:42  |  Kipperraes 25/02/08   10.   And the third option 18:16  |  Chas. 25/02/08   11.   The only real exit is to defeat Hamas 18:24  |  B (The other one) 25/02/08   12.   And the third option 18:27  |  Chas. 25/02/08   13.   just raze the portion you`d invade, declare a no man`s land. 20:06  |  frenz 25/02/08   14.   Stay away from Gaza! 21:45  |  Jason M. Nader 25/02/08   15.   Israel has the right and obligation to defend its citizens 21:58  |  Jay Draiman 25/02/08   16.   Gaza 22:01  |  Mickey Roland 25/02/08

Today Online Gaza protest of Israeli siege yields disappointing turnout Responses: 447 Bradley Burston: Palestine's doomsday weapon - non-violence - fails its test Responses: 203 Canadian Jew loses bid to have 'Jerusalem, Israel' in passport Responses: 134 Obama`s top adviser: Israel and Arabs must negotiate own peace Responses: 160 Akiva Eldar: AIPAC does not even bother to rally for two-state solution Responses: 86 More Headlines 09:25 High Court upholds Katsav sex crimes plea bargain 07:55 Iran ordered to pay $33 million to murdered Israeli diplomat's family 07:39 ANALYSIS: In the end blood was shed in Sderot, not Gaza 02:13 Report: Widow of slain Hezbollah terrorist blames Syria for killing 06:46 Store manager fined for employing Jewish workers on Shabbat 07:26 Israeli diplomat postpones meeting after Costa Rica recognizes Palestinian state 06:22 Iran UN envoy: Exiled group feeding U.S. lies on weapons plan 03:08 Olmert aides: Demonstration in Gaza 'much ado about nothing' 01:39 Will Obama be supportive of an Israel controlled by a Likud government? 06:06 Australian soccer player to be disciplined for dressing as Hitler 08:35 Vets mend sea turtle's limb in first operation of its kind in Israel Previous Editions Select Day 25 feb 24 feb 22 feb 21 feb 20 feb 19 feb 18 feb 17 feb 15 feb 14 feb 13 feb 12 feb

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