Hezbollah and Israel / What Hezbollah could lose in a reprisal - Haaretz

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Last update - 19:38 17/02/2008

Hezbollah and Israel / What Hezbollah could lose in a reprisal

By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel

Tags: Hezbollah, Imad Mughniyah

The German weekly Der Spiegel reported yesterday that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert plans to declare the two soldiers kidnapped by Hezbollah, Eldad Regev and Udi Goldwasser, dead. Olmert was in Germany last week, and the Germans are the chief mediators between Israel and Hezbollah on this issue. The likelihood that they are dead increases with every day that goes by with no sign of life from them. Israeli security sources confirmed last night that the intelligence community is reassessing the kidnapped soldiers' situation and is likely to make "difficult decisions" on the matter in the coming weeks.

But Israel is not the only one facing "difficult decisions." Exactly 16 years ago today, Israel's assassination of then-Hezbollah secretary-general Abbas Mussawi led to the surprise appointment of Hassan Nasrallah, then only 32, as his successor. This week, Nasrallah must decide how to respond to another assassination of a senior Hezbollah official for which he blames Israel: that of Imad Mughniyah.

For years, Nasrallah has been working on two parallel tracks: consolidating Hezbollah's position as a legitimate Lebanese political party and the leader of the country's Shi'ites, and conducting a violent "resistance" against Israel. For the sake of the former, Nasrallah has abjured certain terrorist tactics used by his predecessor, such as kidnapping Westerners. Hezbollah also has not committed an attack overseas since 1994. However, in his speech Thursday, Nasrallah promised to avenge Mughniyah's death and hinted that his reprisal might occur overseas. If it does, this might cost him assets that he has spent years acquiring.

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Senior Israel Defense Forces officers said they have "no doubt" that Hezbollah will carry out a "harsh and painful" reprisal, but admitted that they have no clue where it might take place. For Israel, the worst-case scenario would be a totally unexpected response, like the bombing of the Jewish community center in Argentina in 1994 or the launch of an Iranian cruise missile at an Israeli naval ship during the Lebanon war in 2006. But even if Nasrallah sticks to the known options, it is hard to predict what he will choose, since all have significant downsides for him.

Not responding is not an option: It would damage his credibility and broadcast weakness to the rest of the Arab world. But attacking Israeli or Jewish targets overseas would get Hezbollah in trouble with other countries and return it to the status of an anti-Western terrorist organization like Al-Qaida. If he nevertheless chooses this route, South America or Southeast Asia are considered more likely targets than Europe.

A comparatively modest response, like firing Katyusha rockets at northern Israel, would not meet the high expectations Nasrallah created with his speech. But a mass-casualty attack in Israel would certainly spark a massive Israeli response and could even embroil Lebanon and Israel in another full-scale war, which Nasrallah does not currently appear to want.

Nevertheless, the bottom line is that Israel expects a harsh response, but does not know where or how it will happen. Therefore, it has declared a general alert and taken various precautions, from beefing up its forces along the northern border to issuing travel advisories to Israelis overseas.

At such times, psychological warfare, including disinformation, also plays a key role. A good example is Nasrallah's statement that "50,000 Hezbollah fighters are on high alert in South Lebanon." In fact, the organization does not even have 50,000 fighters.

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