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Last update - 10:07 17/02/2008 ANALYSIS: What Hezbollah could lose in avenging Mughniyah By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondents Tags: Imad Mughniyah, Hezbollah  The German weekly Der Spiegel reported Saturday that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert plans to declare the two soldiers kidnapped by Hezbollah, Eldad Regev and Udi Goldwasser, dead. Olmert was in Germany last week, and the Germans are the chief mediators between Israel and Hezbollah on this issue. The likelihood that they are dead increases with every day that goes by with no sign of life from them. Israeli security sources confirmed last night that the intelligence community is reassessing the kidnapped soldiers' situation and is likely to make "difficult decisions" on the matter in the coming weeks. But Israel is not the only one facing "difficult decisions." Exactly 16 years ago today, Israel's assassination of then-Hezbollah secretary-general Abbas Mussawi led to the surprise appointment of Hassan Nasrallah, then only 32, as his successor. This week, Nasrallah must decide how to respond to another assassination of a senior Hezbollah official for which he blames Israel: that of Imad Mughniyah. For years, Nasrallah has been working on two parallel tracks: consolidating Hezbollah's position as a legitimate Lebanese political party and the leader of the country's Shi'ites, and conducting a violent "resistance" against Israel. For the sake of the former, Nasrallah has abjured certain terrorist tactics used by his predecessor, such as kidnapping Westerners. Advertisement Hezbollah also has not committed an attack overseas since 1994. However, in his speech Thursday, Nasrallah promised to avenge Mughniyah's death and hinted that his reprisal might occur overseas. If it does, this might cost him assets that he has spent years acquiring. Senior Israel Defense Forces officers said they have "no doubt" that Hezbollah will carry out a "harsh and painful" reprisal, but admitted that they have no clue where it might take place. For Israel, the worst-case scenario would be a totally unexpected response, like the bombing of the Jewish community center in Argentina in 1994 or the launch of an Iranian cruise missile at an Israeli naval ship during the Lebanon war in 2006. But even if Nasrallah sticks to the known options, it is hard to predict what he will choose, since all have significant downsides for him. Not responding is not an option: It would damage his credibility and broadcast weakness to the rest of the Arab world. But attacking Israeli or Jewish targets overseas would get Hezbollah in trouble with other countries and return it to the status of an anti-Western terrorist organization like Al-Qaida. If he nevertheless chooses this route, South America or Southeast Asia are considered more likely targets than Europe. A comparatively modest response, like firing Katyusha rockets at northern Israel, would not meet the high expectations Nasrallah created with his speech. But a mass-casualty attack in Israel would certainly spark a massive Israeli response and could even embroil Lebanon and Israel in another full-scale war, which Nasrallah does not currently appear to want. Nevertheless, the bottom line is that Israel expects a harsh response, but does not know where or how it will happen. Therefore, it has declared a general alert and taken various precautions, from beefing up its forces along the northern border to issuing travel advisories to Israelis overseas. At such times, psychological warfare, including disinformation, also plays a key role. A good example is Nasrallah's statement that "50,000 Hezbollah fighters are on high alert in South Lebanon." In fact, the organization does not even have 50,000 fighters Bookmark to del.icio.us   Independence day Kosovars rejoice as Kosovo declares itself an independent and sovereign state. Settling the score 1/3 of W. Bank settlements are on Palestinian land seized for 'security purposes.'   1.   Nasrallah`s Revenge 01:36  |  Yosef 17/02/08   2.   "Response"??? 01:43  |  Confused Citizen 17/02/08   3.   Israel must offer an ultimatum to HIzbollah 01:56  |  ME Analyst 17/02/08   4.   The options of 1994 are not available to Hez today 02:09  |  Alan 17/02/08   5.   Nas the coward- make threat and hide 02:21  |  waste of sand 17/02/08   6.   50 000 fighters... 02:21  |  sandra chitayat 17/02/08   7.   Mughniyah 02:22  |  Paul 17/02/08   8.   Nasrallah`s power 02:29  |  Paul 17/02/08   9.   nasalrallah killed Mughniyah 02:39  |  jewish doctor 17/02/08   10.   Israel wants the next war right now! 02:45  |  Dutch Dirk 17/02/08   11.   Its Time To Send Hezbollah A Message First 02:58  |  Norman F Birnberg 17/02/08   12.   Israel Has the Means But Not the Will 03:18  |  Dave Levy 17/02/08   13.   to israelis.. 03:33  |  bashar 17/02/08   14.   #10 Dirk, you humored me, thanks! 03:45  |  Bob 17/02/08   15.   10 Dutch Dirk,correct in your assessment,and it will be 03:52  |  lakshmi 17/02/08   16.   Smartest move in a long time 04:00  |  Montrealer 17/02/08   17.   They already avenge since 7th century 04:13  |  Cristo 17/02/08   18.   50,000 Hezbollah "fighters" assumed positions behind women and 04:23  |  Marwan مروان خوري 17/02/08   19.   Famous Amos 04:23  |  M.O. 17/02/08   20.   Lakshmi no. 15 04:34  |  John Millman 17/02/08   21.   as long as olmert is p.m,israel will not win in any war 05:09  |  chaim 17/02/08   22.   hezbo "avenging" 05:25  |  ljf-canada 17/02/08   23.   How much is all this extra precaution cost? 05:30  |  Ben 17/02/08   24.   wishful thinking lakshmi 05:36  |  Avi 17/02/08   25.   waiting for it is more stressful 05:40  |  Ben 17/02/08   26.   # 3 M E Analyst 05:41  |  Josh 17/02/08   27.   lakshmi`s threatening message to civilization itself 05:53  |  Avi 17/02/08   28.   Why not allow Ron Arad`s wife to remarry? 06:36  |  Mirqa 17/02/08   29.   lakshmi, you are slacking! Israel with a capital I!? 07:39  |  Figaro 17/02/08   30.   Unfortunatly, the israeal army is weaken 08:10  |  Mohammad 17/02/08   31.   To Lakshimi & Dutch Jirk - Get ready 08:54  |  Yossi 17/02/08   32.   time for hassan to show up in Damas under assumed id like imad. 09:30  |  nobel 17/02/08   33.   #15 - Lakshmi - rogue States 09:36  |  William 17/02/08   34.   #30, Yossi... 09:45  |  Silvienne 17/02/08   35.   #24, Avi..lakshmi is right about one thing at least... 09:47  |  Silvienne 17/02/08   36.   I am enjoying every minute 09:53  |  Saladin 17/02/08   37.   I am enjoying every minute 09:58  |  Saladin 17/02/08   38.   Confused citizen no 2 10:27  |  Allon 17/02/08   39.   i am not exactly sure why people reply lakshmi 10:54  |  kashmirman 17/02/08   40.   To #34 Silvienne - Get real - another foolish posting 10:55  |  Yossi 17/02/08   41.   37 Saladin dot mess your pants 10:55  |  Sabra 17/02/08   42.   To #35 - Silvienne - US support at an all time high 11:00  |  OHI 17/02/08   43.   Dutch Dirk 11:01  |  Sabra 17/02/08   44.   The most plausible option for Hezbollah is to abduct..... 11:01  |  Swiss (Dino) 17/02/08   45.   THEY could GAIN intimate knowledge about Israeli drones,cruise - 11:02  |  PETER SM 17/02/08   46.   the polite and vicious poster nick ferriman 11:04  |  mishal 17/02/08   47.   If I were Assad, nasrallah or Ahmedinanut job 11:04  |  Sabra 17/02/08   48.   # 31Yossi 11:12  |  Dutch Dirk 17/02/08   49.   That`s right - Hezbollah are regarded as nice guys in the West 11:12  |  Clickfool 17/02/08   50.   swiss dino"kidnap israeli soldiers" 11:22  |  nasrallah 17/02/08   51.   #44, Dino, keep your vicious advice to yourself 11:40  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 17/02/08   52.   clickfool "i love hizballah to bits" 11:46  |  natke nir 17/02/08   53.   WALID JUMBLAT IS A COLLABORATOR 11:50  |  indrajaya 17/02/08   54.   To #48 - Dutch Jirk - The facts of my posting have upset you? 12:04  |  Yossi 17/02/08   55.   nasrallah 12:06  |  mark 17/02/08   56.   indrajaya and walid jumblat`s days being numbered 12:14  |  tommy soekarno 17/02/08   57.   Take out all Mossad operatives 12:17  |  Fatin 17/02/08   58.   Dino 44 - what an evil suggestion... 12:18  |  ChanahS 17/02/08   59.   Sylvienne # 34 12:21  |  ChanahS 17/02/08   60.   Silvienne 35 12:22  |  ChanahS 17/02/08   61.   considering his options tendered here 12:41  |  eric 17/02/08   62.   loose something 12:49  |  zeew 17/02/08   63.   shame 12:51  |  Jw 17/02/08   64.   # 44 to swiss (dino) 12:52  |  eric 17/02/08   65.   Haaretz if he plays his cards right 12:53  |  Kris 17/02/08   66.   Don`t wait for a response 13:14  |  moshe 17/02/08   67.   #35 silvienne and the interests of most americans ? 13:28  |  v hardman 17/02/08   68.   ISRAELI STATE TERRORISM 14:39  |  Lennart 17/02/08   69.   To Dino #\ 44 - Hezbollah to abduct a few more Israeli 14:54  |  Dolly 17/02/08   70.   well hello dolly 15:10  |  whereyoubelong 17/02/08   71.   Hezbollah will certainly lose a lot more Credibility 15:10  |  Dagma 17/02/08   72.   #4 Alan of South Africa 15:13  |  Paul Wood 17/02/08   73.   Victimize Lebanon Again and Again? 15:26  |  st. gorgoit 17/02/08   74.   we ar at begining of this conflict. it started 15:42  |  bozhidar balkas 17/02/08   75.   # 9 Jewish Dr. YOU COULD BE RIGHT 16:09  |  Petra 17/02/08   76.   Sabra 16:33  |  Sabra 2 17/02/08   77.   Lakshmi, Re A serious error 17:10  |  Dutch 17/02/08   78.   Obviously the price for retaliation is too low 17:15  |  Jason 17/02/08   79.   To Sabra # 76 - When you are strong..... 17:37  |  Dagma 17/02/08   80.   no immediate revenge, they will think it through 17:41  |  mehmet 17/02/08   81.   eric #61 18:04  |  S 17/02/08   82.   ISRAEL WILL NEVER LET ASSAD` S REGIME FALL 18:34  |  yama nikto yama 17/02/08   83.   # 15 lakshmi...just a note 20:06  |  Lynn 17/02/08   84.   # 35 Silvienne...yes, indeed it is changing 20:10  |  Lynn 17/02/08   85.   INDY ....Walid Jumblatt is one of the most beloved Druze 20:15  |  Lynn 17/02/08   86.   # 77 Dutch...how are you and the vainglorious 20:17  |  Lynn 17/02/08   87.   # 1Yosef Nasrallah`s Revenge. I say Who`s The Boss In Lebanon? 21:01  |  KATHY 17/02/08   88.   # 61 eric...Bravo on your last sentence... 21:04  |  KATHY 17/02/08   89.   # 30 Mohammed...nice practical name 21:06  |  Lynn 17/02/08   90.   # 44 Dino Swiss...Thanks a bunch Dino..I then hope some of yours 21:11  |  KATHY 17/02/08   91.   # 11 Norman F. Blimberg...SPOT ON AGREED.. 21:57  |  KATHY 17/02/08   92.   mehmet dont worry your little head over us 22:08  |  amir yoffe 17/02/08   93.   chaim # 21 i absosutely agree with you 22:15  |  shloime katz 17/02/08   94.   150 $ REWARD (all my savings) 22:23  |  samir kuntar 17/02/08   95.   Swiss Ass 22:44  |  Nemesis 17/02/08   96.   Dutch Dirk 23:47  |  Paul J 17/02/08   97.   Masochists Inc.? 23:49  |  KoSher 17/02/08   98.   #48 Dutch jew hater 00:03  |  Paul J 18/02/08   99.   # 42 OHI..re:Silvienne..Just read and you will know.. 00:35  |  KATHY 18/02/08   100.   # 40 Yossi to Silvienne..Getting Real is not one of her virtues. 00:45  |  KATHY 18/02/08   101.   To Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel.Why the Delay? 00:52  |  KATHY 18/02/08   102.   # 34 and # 35 Silvienne...You Are Anguis in Herba.. 00:54  |  KATHY 18/02/08   103.   # 88 to kathy; i doubt if you did... 01:07  |  eric 18/02/08   104.   # 81 to my friend "S" 01:23  |  eric 18/02/08   105.   Calm down guys, I did NOT give any advice to Hezbollah..... 01:40  |  Swiss (Dino) 18/02/08   106.   It depends 02:40  |  Mark Lincoln 18/02/08   107.   To chaim # 21 - As long as Olmert is PM...... 02:43  |  Dagma 18/02/08   108.   One thing Nasrallah is not concerned about is aquired assets. It 02:44  |  is Power he craves. 18/02/08   109.   and mehmet, regarding # 92, the other side of the world prays for 02:52  |  them as they do. 18/02/08   110.   Fear of Retaliation 03:43  |  STRIKE FORCE GLOBAL 18/02/08   111.   Fear of Retaliation Part 2 03:50  |  STRIKE FORCE GLOBAL 18/02/08   112.   you well be destroyd 04:01  |  issa 18/02/08   113.   Nasrallah,position 04:47  |  Michael 18/02/08   114.   Swiss Dino - Hezbollah in Trouble 04:50  |  Reid 18/02/08   115.   Swiss Dino - Hezbollah in Trouble 2 04:58  |  Reid 18/02/08   116.   I`ve never seen so many blind ignorants as I see here today 05:14  |  Shouting at the wall 18/02/08   117.   Why do you all blame Israel, when Lebanese blame Syria? 05:17  |  William 18/02/08   118.   V Is For... 07:18  |  Leslie-Ann 18/02/08   119.   # 88 to kathy; i doubt if you did...(2nd try) 07:33  |  eric 18/02/08   120.   # 81 to my friend "S" (2nd try) 07:34  |  eric 18/02/08   121.   Israeli officials shouldn`t have provoked this situation.. 07:44  |  Dutch 18/02/08   122.   Mughniyah`s Assassination 08:18  |  Ron Baker 18/02/08   123.   SO SHALL PERISH ALL THY ENEMIES, O GOD OF VENGEANCE!!!))))))) 08:50  |  VOICE of MOSHIACH))) 18/02/08   124.   To Cipora, Chanah, eric, Kathy, Nemesis etc...: RELAX guys....... 09:02  |  Swiss (Dino) 18/02/08   125.   # 101 / # 102 Reid 09:13  |  Swiss (Dino) 18/02/08   126.   50 000 fighter 09:44  |  Arze 18/02/08   127.   #84, Lynn.... 09:47  |  Silvienne 18/02/08   128.   #86, Lynn...to Dutch... 09:50  |  Silvienne 18/02/08   129.   #67, V Hardman.... 09:52  |  Silvienne 18/02/08   130.   #40, Yossi, using the well-worn fallback names... 09:55  |  Silvienne 18/02/08   131.   #42, OHI...another one using the "racecard"... 09:59  |  Silvienne 18/02/08   132.   #59, ChanahS, no, you are wrong... 10:04  |  Silvienne 18/02/08   133.   #60, ChanahS... 10:06  |  Silvienne 18/02/08   134.   #111 silvienne and avoiding the question 10:18  |  v hardman 18/02/08   135.   #113 silvienn are they sick of the constant threat the usa poses 10:21  |  v hardman 18/02/08   136.   #113 silvienn are they sick of the constant threat the usa poses 10:21  |  v hardman 18/02/08   137.   # 103 no "bubble" for me, swiss(dino)... 10:24  |  eric 18/02/08   138.   A more pointed question --what is the gain? 10:30  |  Dutch 18/02/08   139.   A more pointed question --what is the gain? 10:31  |  Dutch 18/02/08   140.   # 137 eric 10:54  |  Swiss (Dino) 18/02/08   141.   # 140 to swiss (dino) 20:20  |  eric 18/02/08

Today Online Bradley Burston: Anti-Zionism as a form of racism Responses: 246 Iran Revolutionary Guard chief: Hezbollah will destroy Israel Responses: 217 Top diplomat: Calling Sderot-Gaza violence 'cycle' may breed terror Responses: 105 Anshel Pfeffer: Are Israeli policies risking the lives of Diaspora Jews? Responses: 56 Abbas rejects PM call to defer talks on Jerusalem Responses: 83 Report: Progress made in Shalit prisoner swap deal Responses: 33 Rosner's Domain Brzezinski didn't show up (WTR) How would Obama handle Israel? Ex-advisors offer clues Clinton's peace team: the attacks on Rob Malley "vicious" (WTR) Most blatant example of Israeli interference in American election The U.S. and Mughniyah / Not just 'who' but also 'where' More Headlines 20:17 Abbas rejects PM call to defer talks on Jerusalem 19:18 Sources: Israel deploys Patriot missiles fearing Hezbollah strike 17:25 Four Qassams hit west Negev, residents treated for shock 19:59 Report: U.S. evidence shows N. Korea gave Syria nuclear aid 20:12 Top diplomat: Calling violence in south a 'cycle' may breed terror 14:42 French gov't softens Sarkozy plan to honor Holocaust victims 20:18 U.S. recognizes Kosovo independence as Israel delays taking stance 17:06 Egypt to deport 500 Palestinians who crossed in border breach 19:24 Interior Minister says will freeze merger plan for municipalities 19:36 Israel Museum exhibits art looted by Nazis and unclaimed 18:48 Statistics bureau notes record high tourism rates in January 2008 13:25 Report: Progress made in deal to free abducted soldier Shalit 19:59 Jerusalem girds for rare snow rerun as storm makes landfall Previous Editions Select Day 17 feb 15 feb 14 feb 13 feb 12 feb 11 feb 10 feb 08 feb 07 feb 06 feb 05 feb 04 feb

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