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Last update - 03:37 15/02/2008 ANALYSIS: Roiled Hezbollah chief throws down the gauntlet By Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz Correspondent Tags: Walid Jumblatt, Hezbollah  When Hassan Nasrallah quotes David Ben-Gurion to emphasize to Israel that "if it loses one war, it will collapse," or the Winograd report to impress his supporters with the fact that Israel lost the fight against several thousand Hezbollah fighters, we can once more be impressed that he and his advisers follow what is going on in Israeli society far more closely than Israel follows developments in Lebanon. But Nasrallah also knows that sharp rhetoric and expert usage of language are no substitute for a plan of action. He presented his plan Thursday in his speech by setting the rules for war against Israel: "If you want an open-ended war, it will be an open-ended war," and he also explained what this would entail. Because Hezbollah blames Israel for the assassination of Imad Mughniyah, which it claims occured "outside the natural arena of the war" (in other words Syria and not in Lebanon), the organization considers it legitimate to use the same method and target Israel outside the "natural arena": not directly on Israeli territory but against Israeli targets abroad. Thus, Nasrallah absolved himself of the rules he followed for years, according to which he was conducting a war of Lebanese liberation against Israeli occupation. Henceforth, he is adopting a war on behalf of the organization, not in the name of Lebanon, against Israel's existence. In this new equation, where Nasrallah opened a new a "personal account" for himself and Hezbollah versus Israel, lies the novelty of his speech. Advertisement Nasrallah also diverged from the way he had characterized the Lebanon war to date - as a Lebanese war against Israel, and every Hezbollah victory as a Lebanese one. On Thursday, he said that his fighters were ready for the next war, that they had equipped themselves with weapons, and that they have conscripted thousands so in the next war, Israel will face tens of thousands of Hezbollah fighters. Not a word on the Lebanese army, certainly not about the government of Lebanon, which he does not consider to be a legitimate body. This was a speech that was directed at the Lebanese government and its supporters, no less than it was for Israel's consumption. Nasrallah did not spare his rivals any ridicule, especially Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who called on him earlier this week "to stop the war against Israel under false slogans, which only serve the ambitions of the Syrian regime and the Iranian empire." Nasrallah described the leaders of the Lebanese majority "dwarfs" who are unable to fight for themselves and therefore call in other countries, like Israel and the United States to fight their battles for them. If Lebanese analysts expected Wednesday that the assassination of Mughniyah would result in positive gestures of political reconciliation on the part of Nasrallah, especially after Sa'ad Hariri called for "national unity," it would seem that Thursday's competing rallies and speeches have brought Lebanon one step closer to a violent confrontation. It is not the ridicule of his rivals that is now threatening Lebanon, but Nasrallah's ability to determine, at any given moment, whether the country goes to war or keeps the peace. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Seeking refuge 123 Sudanese refugees infiltrate Israel from Egypt overnight. Bracing for terror Israel, U.S. fear retaliatory strikes after killing of Mughniyah.   1.   More Impotent Rage From Nasrallah 04:11  |  dyinglikeflies 15/02/08   2.   Has some one upset nasalnada 04:35  |  Adrian de Klerk 15/02/08   3.   JUSTICE !!!!!!!! 04:39  |  Adrian de Klerk 15/02/08   4.   ABSOLUTE DETERRENCE IS NEEDED 04:44  |  Jorge 15/02/08   5.   Precise hit, nice work 04:48  |  Al 15/02/08   6.   You Israelis Are Really Dumb ! 04:50  |  MIKE 15/02/08   7.   they have conscripted thousands 04:56  |  Realist 15/02/08   8.   Arena shmerena 04:58  |  David K 15/02/08   9.   #6 I doubt your accomplishing anything 05:07  |  Empresaria 15/02/08   10.   Mike in NYC 05:10  |  Uzi 15/02/08   11.   #4 Jorge, you better think about what you advocate 05:16  |  Johnboy 15/02/08   12.   Roiled 05:45  |  Ed 15/02/08   13.   #8 Rather depends upon Nasrallah`s involvement, David K 05:46  |  Johnboy 15/02/08   14.   Nasrallah is a COWARD! 05:52  |  US Citizen 15/02/08   15.   nothing new they attacked in other parts before vermin to be dest 05:52  |  ralph 15/02/08   16.   he is running out of night times stories to tell never respected 05:53  |  ralph 15/02/08   17.   if he is soi sure of himself why broadcasting from 5 miles under 05:54  |  ralph 15/02/08   18.   Jorge - 1st try 05:55 HT 05:55  |  BBSNews 15/02/08   19.   Lebanon is Hizbollah, Hizbollah is Lebanon 06:09  |  William 15/02/08   20.   Last Tango in Damascus 06:26  |  Ciriaco Cuitino 15/02/08   21.   # 11, IF MISSION CLEAR; RESULTS ARE MET FAST 06:29  |  Jorge 15/02/08   22.   haaretz when will you learn from history? recognize a terrorist 06:30  |  ralph 15/02/08   23.   NASRALLAH, BABY FACED TERRORIST 06:58  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 15/02/08   24.   # 18, Israels sin is not wanting to be destroyed 07:06  |  Jorge 15/02/08   25.   Roiled Hezbollah chief throws down the gauntlet 07:10  |  Walt 15/02/08   26.   Nasrallah says BOO! Israel jumps .. 07:12  |  Natallie Durson 15/02/08   27.   what an Idiot 07:15  |  fadi 15/02/08   28.   BBS-scenario for world imposed solution? 07:18  |  Stephen in New York 15/02/08   29.   No Rules 07:19  |  Karma Chameleon 15/02/08   30.   Rage isn`t a Plan 07:21  |  B (The other one) 15/02/08   31.   More BBS hypocrisy 07:24  |  Stephen in New York 15/02/08   32.   Cipora-one interesting thing 07:28  |  Stephen in New York 15/02/08   33.   #18 - BBS News 07:33  |  Michael 15/02/08   34.   William - 1st try 07:35 HT 07:35  |  BBSNews 15/02/08   35.   Nasrallah, f*cked by his own "ambition"! 07:39  |  akiva (zionist) 15/02/08   36.   WHO RUNS LEBANON? 07:50  |  NEIL GOLAN 15/02/08   37.   Nasrallah is just scared that he`s next 07:59  |  RA 15/02/08   38.   missed opportunity 08:29  |  tony harris 15/02/08   39.   Faulty Israel Analysis 08:30  |  EL 15/02/08   40.   Cipora -- 1st try 08:53 HT 08:53  |  BBSNews 15/02/08   41.   Sewer rat`s turn 08:59  |  Nora 15/02/08   42.   Drop the hiding argument! 08:59  |  qristian Levanon 15/02/08   43.   johnboy "the lebanon war became unbearable to isreal" 09:10  |  zevulun 15/02/08   44.   Hassan N. now understands, for the first time, the political 09:14  |  avigdor 15/02/08   45.   johnboy"suicide for israel" 09:14  |  zevulun 15/02/08   46.   Nasrallah 09:15  |  Mah Nishmah 15/02/08   47.   Beware of BBSNews 09:19  |  Mah Nishmah ? 15/02/08   48.   johnboy gloats"there is a risk for the jewish diaspora" 09:19  |  zevulun 15/02/08   49.   Beware of BBSNews 09:22  |  Mah Nishmah 15/02/08   50.   #21 and the rest 09:32  |  Sami 15/02/08   51.   zvi barel "far more then israel follows what is going on 09:38  |  zorik dayan 15/02/08   52.   zvi bar`el tries to be too clever by half 09:42  |  zorik dayan 15/02/08   53.   #32, Stephen, NY 09:53  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 15/02/08   54.   Nasrallah 09:59  |  Bill 15/02/08   55.   #40, BBS 10:00  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 15/02/08   56.   # 18 BBS News - Foolish One 10:22  |  Alan 15/02/08   57.   WAS IT SMART? 10:22  |  BEN 15/02/08   58.   BEN from PA: the war on terror is a success story when all 11:16  |  semper fidelis 15/02/08   59.   Do the Israeli leaders understand the gravity of the Islamic dang 11:16  |  Jean Van Daem 15/02/08   60.   Nasrallah threw down more than the gauntlet 11:27  |  Tzfonit 15/02/08   61.   STATE TERRORISM... 11:29  |  Tribunal Militaire 15/02/08   62.   Nasrallah 12:08  |  alan 15/02/08   63.   AT BEST OF KNOWLEDGE 12:35  |  indrajaya 15/02/08   64.   indrajaya what is wrong with the javanese people 13:08  |  tommy soekarno 15/02/08   65.   The man is a prophet 13:15  |  Abu Arab AL Ansari 15/02/08   66.   Very good analysis 13:53  |  Jer 15/02/08   67.   Tzfonit: Hezbullah: Lebanon`s false saviour 14:18  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 15/02/08   68.   Durson 14:25  |  Jeff 15/02/08   69.   Nasrallah such a coward !! 14:29  |  John Fellows 15/02/08   70.   # 18 BBS.....West has had it with jihadists 14:34  |  Lynn 15/02/08   71.   # 50 Sami that was already debunked 14:39  |  Lynn 15/02/08   72.   # 63 Indy...Not one Arab country 14:47  |  Lynn 15/02/08   73.   # 61 Tribunal Militaire...speaking of Tribunals 14:53  |  Lynn 15/02/08   74.   Stay To Home, Nasrallah 14:59  |  Jeff Northridge 15/02/08   75.   Indrawhatever`s Rant 15:36  |  Mark 15/02/08   76.   Staged KILLING, Dirty battleground 15:37  |  Salem 15/02/08   77.   fatboy getting nervous 15:59  |  don 15/02/08   78.   Tribunal Militaire: Stuff Plus Mughniyah Dies of Natural Causes 17:03  |  Brad 15/02/08   79.   Are there no men in Lebanon 17:19  |  psi 15/02/08   80.   #26, you`re not fooling anyone 17:34  |  John 15/02/08   81.   nasrallah 17:37  |  David 15/02/08   82.   #18, trying to recall 1930`s Germany 17:42  |  John 15/02/08   83.   Gnatallie Posts; World Jewry Laughs 17:45  |  Tex 15/02/08   84.   What`ll he do now, Syria arrested 3 Palestinians for the killing 18:27  |  Dr. L. Brnd 15/02/08   85.   nasrallah knows he`s fighting for his own & hezbollah`s survival 18:32  |  ivo 15/02/08   86.   Cipora on knowledge - 1st try 18:43 HT 18:43  |  BBSNews 15/02/08   87.   Alan - 1st try 19:00 HT 19:00  |  BBSNews 15/02/08   88.   Reuters Reports 19:08  |  Jeff Northridge 15/02/08   89.   BBS 78:Israel is trying to force an Iran confrontation. 19:28  |  Stephen in New York 15/02/08   90.   #76 Dr L Brnd 19:30  |  Chris Linthwaite 15/02/08   91.   John - 1st try 20:14 HT 20:14  |  BBSNews 15/02/08   92.   Natalie Nasrallah 20:25  |  Marc 15/02/08   93.   True abilities vs. periodic cowardly sucker punches 20:30  |  TonyL 15/02/08   94.   Jeff Northridge #80 20:53  |  TonyL 15/02/08   95.   #76 21:11  |  Dr. A Beyd 15/02/08   96.   zvi were you born yesterday by your article that would seem so 21:14  |  ralph 15/02/08   97.   ivo # 77 Hezbollah`s Raison d`Etre 23:44  |  Jeff Northridge 15/02/08   98.   Lynn. #65 Do you also know 23:56  |  encore 15/02/08   99.   PPS News floundering 00:27  |  peter 16/02/08   100.   They might even be guilty - L. Brnd 05:16  |  Mark Lincoln 16/02/08   101.   The end of Hizbollah 05:29  |  Danite 16/02/08   102.   Tzfonit 05:31  |  Danite 16/02/08   103.   Israel doesn`t deserve the right to exist 06:06  |  sam 16/02/08   104.   # 63, LYNN 07:43  |  indrajaya 16/02/08   105.   Jeff #97: well, yes, but these people do have an ideology & do - 09:14  |  ivo 16/02/08   106.   indrajaya do not confuse the issue 09:36  |  tommy soekarno 16/02/08   107.   Nasrallah - a hero in hiding 11:31  |  Sarah 16/02/08   108.   indrajaya from the pidie district aceh 12:15  |  tommy soekarno 16/02/08   109.   johnboy 13:03  |  israel israeli 16/02/08   110.   OJALAN YESTERDAY,MAGHNIEH TO DAY ,MECHAL TO MORROW 13:51  |  NAD 16/02/08   111.   # 19 WILLIAM EXCELLENT OBSERVATION. 14:06  |  Petra 16/02/08   112.   Petra & William #111: but that`s only because hezbollah has - 14:51  |  ivo 16/02/08   113.   Tzfonit, Margie in TA and Danite on Hizbulah 15:29  |  Mark B. 16/02/08   114.   The living dead? 17:00  |  Johnson 16/02/08   115.   dear jews, some of us ar not against jews 17:41  |  bozhidar balkas 16/02/08   116.   #105, ivo 17:51  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 16/02/08   117.   bozhidar balkas"some of us are not against jews" 18:53  |  notbothered 16/02/08   118.   Cipora #116 20:08  |  ivo 16/02/08   119.   Lies 20:08  |  Paul 16/02/08   120.   Spawn of evil 20:10  |  Paul 16/02/08   121.   ISRAEL IGNITING CIVIL WAR IN LEBANON 21:57  |  JACKAL 16/02/08   122.   Since the War ended ... 00:28  |  Bernie 17/02/08   123.   HIzbullah in Distress 02:00  |  Simone 17/02/08   124.   #103; sam Israel does exist, who cares what you think. 02:08  |  Doc Holliday 17/02/08   125.   #118, ivo 02:12  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 17/02/08   126.   Hezbollah best leave the US alone. 08:27  |  Devin Leonard 17/02/08   127.   Cipora #125 09:14  |  ivo 17/02/08   128.   Let hisboliar start it all 09:42  |  Adrian de Klerk 17/02/08   129.   Adrian tearing Lebanon apart 10:31  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 17/02/08

Today Online Israel fears Hezbollah will attack with bomb-laden drone Responses: 38 Issacharoff and Harel: What Hezbollah could lose in avenging Mughniyah Responses: 38 Yossi Sarid: Where is Israel's Barack Obama? Responses: 2 Reform head says supports concessions on Jerusalem Responses: 20 Zvi Bar'el: Mugniyah assassination is no cause for celebration Responses: 3 Rosner's Domain Clinton's peace team: the attacks on Rob Malley "vicious" (WTR) Brzezinski in Israel (WTR) Most blatant example of Israeli interference in American election The U.S. and Mughniyah / Not just 'who' but also 'where' Poll: Was killing Mughniyah both justified and wise? More Headlines 09:35 Israel worried Hezbollah will attack with bomb-laden drone 09:37 PMO: Homes within 4.5 km of Gaza must be fortified against Qassams 09:13 Likud MK: Stop prisoner talks until Hezbollah provides sign of life 09:54 Jihad militant killed in clashes with IDF troops in southern Gaza 10:07 ANALYSIS: What Hezbollah could lose in avenging Mughniyah 06:13 Reform head says supports concessions on Jerusalem 22:16 Car bombings kill 39 at rally ahead of Pakistan elections 23:56 French FM Kouchner: Israel must stop settlement activity 09:29 PM: Road map obligations don't nix 'other lawful activities' in W. Bank 05:43 A third of settlements on land taken for 'security purposes' 01:11 Public warned about poisoned fish from Kinneret 01:54 Missing Israeli in India feared dead after body found with his passport Previous Editions Select Day 15 feb 14 feb 13 feb 12 feb 11 feb 10 feb 08 feb 07 feb 06 feb 05 feb 04 feb 03 feb

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