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Last update - 13:29 16/03/2008
ANALYSIS: Mughniyah killing happened under noses of Iran and Syria
By Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: mughniyah, hezbollah 

A nasty surprise awaited Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, who was scheduled to arrive in Damascus on Wednesday to discuss the Lebanese crisis with Bashar Assad. Syria, the Iranian minister found out, is no longer a secure state, its intelligence is penetrable, and Iran's emissaries and friends - whether the leaders of Islamic Jihad or Hamas - are now, with Imad Mughniyah's assassination, in the first line of fire. Mottaki could have surmised that in Damascus, he too could be an easy target.

If Mottaki got a surprise, Assad was hit with the full blow that under his own nose, and not in fragmented Lebanon "full of traitors," as Hezbollah says, such a complex operation could have been cooked up and carried out.

But certainly the greatest shake-up will be felt by Hezbollah, whose intelligence structure, security capabilities, and assault architecture were built by Mughniyah himself.
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This, therefore, is a strategic assassination, because of its potential repercussions beyond the removal of Hezbollah's supreme planner and operative.

Because the important question now is how the Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah axis will respond in unison, and how each component will respond singly.

The prime target from now on will be Israel itself, Israeli and Jewish institutions around the world, and even Israeli airliners or airports frequented by many Israelis. These are considered security weak points, when faced with Hezbollah's undercover cells worldwide, which Mughniyah himself set up and activated on several occasions.

American targets might also be a "suitable" object for vengeance, and an attempt to parlay Mughniyah's slaying into political leverage. If American targets or civilians in the Middle East or Middle America are harmed as a result of an Israeli assassination, Nasrallah can hope for resulting pressure from the American public against Israel.

The question is what Israeli target would count as sufficient to meet Hezbollah's needs for vengeance and prestige.

The other roiling front is Lebanon itself, where a mass rally is scheduled to be held Thursday marking the third anniversary of Rafiq Hariri's murder.

Thousands are expected to fill Beirut's plazas - unless the event is canceled - and in view of the violent rhetoric heard in Lebanon this week, and Mughniyah's assassination, this public display could spill over into mass clashes that the Lebanese army will be unable to stop.

Fears for a violent, even armed, outbreak are being fed by accusations from Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, that the Lebanese government collaborated with Israel during the Second Lebanon War.

Anger at the Lebanese government grew Wednesday when it failed to react by evening to Mughniyah's assassination, did not join those condemning the killing, nor express sorrow over it.

If the Mughniyah assassination generates a mass outbreak in Lebanon, it might develop into a new civil war and create a tough front for Israel, since Lebanese chaos would likely spell the end of agreements reached following the Second Lebanon War and on the basis of Security Council Resolution 1701.

In the most dangerous scenario, Hezbollah will respond to the assassination by deciding to go to war with Israel, and thereby place the Lebanese government in an impossible situation.

Related articles:
  • Israel embassies on high alert following Mughniyah killing
  • ANALYSIS: U.S. involvement in Mughniyah killing still uncertain
  • Hariri memorial, Mughniyah funeral set to divide Beirut residents
  • ANALYSIS: Question now is not whether Hezbollah will respond, but how
  • Hezbollah, the only party in Lebanon
  • IDF says Hezbollah Katyushas, missiles back in S. Lebanon
  • ANALYSIS: Hezbollah terror chief was more wanted than Nasrallah
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      1.   Israeli assassination? 06:01  |  Petra 14/02/08
      2.   Lebanon should have dealt with Hezbollah 06:05  |  Nechama 14/02/08
      3.   Its not the physical attack the west should fear... 06:36  |  Igor D. 14/02/08
      4.   #2 Nechama 06:43  |  Amir 14/02/08
      5.   Who did it? 06:46  |  k shamash 14/02/08
      6.   F*ck the Lebanese 07:09  |  akiva (zionist) 14/02/08
      7.   I dont think so- 07:31  |  Jo 14/02/08
      8.   Israel`s end of all wars 08:16  |  Tabska 14/02/08
      9.   Lebanon didn`t have the means to deal with Hezbollah 08:43  |  WordBeBorn 14/02/08
      10.   HEZBOLLAH WILL BE OK 08:44  |  indrajaya 14/02/08
      11.   Ignorance laden BS 08:50  |  akiva (zionist) 14/02/08
      12.   Who said Israel did anything.. Did anyone read the news from 09:06  |  mk 14/02/08
      13.   Hezbollah best think very carefully about attacking US. 10:20  |  Devin Leonard 14/02/08
      14.   Re Tabska #8 11:05  |  Esther 14/02/08
      15.   Indrajaya 11:07  |  Folgore 14/02/08
      16.   please, stop the scare mongering 11:16  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 14/02/08
      17.   Why so sure that ISRAEL assassinated Mughniyah 11:18  |  Dagma 14/02/08
      18.   Under their noses? or by their own hands? 11:50  |  Avi 14/02/08
      19.   Revenge? Nothing to fear but fear itself 11:57  |  Ehud 14/02/08
      20.   Hizbullah will pay a heavy price for retalliation? 11:59  |  Palestinian Brit 14/02/08
      21.   Olmerts crew is too afraid of International reaction... 12:13  |  Avi 14/02/08
      22.   Nazirhallah feels the heat now, like a rat 12:27  |  Jean 14/02/08
      23.   Nazirhallah hiding deeper and deeper, poor rat 12:46  |  Jean 14/02/08
      24.   #6 akiva 12:58  |  Lebanese 14/02/08
      25.   Help 13:01  |  Dany 14/02/08
      26.   Is Walid Jumblatt behind the assassination ? 13:08  |  Jean Van Daem 14/02/08
      27.   #18 ...Who killed whom ?? 13:12  |  Dany 14/02/08
      28.   Are U sure Israel is responsible? 13:29  |  Cherif 14/02/08
      29.   The Syrians Killed Mughniyah Themselves 13:43  |  Yosemite 14/02/08
      30.   Syria probably did him in to foment chaos 13:56  |  Ilan 14/02/08
      31.   Zvi simply wrong about American backlash 13:57  |  David Hoffman 14/02/08
      32.   16Cipora J Kohn,people are totally sick of the murder&mayhem 14:02  |  lakshmi 14/02/08
      33.   He is not dead Yet,,,swear 18:04  |  ALoush 14/02/08
      34.   please let us respondq 18:09  |  lol 14/02/08
      35.   Isn`t It Time to Stop Being Passive? 20:26  |  Dave Levy 14/02/08
      36.   Surprised 21:18  |  Libnani 14/02/08
      37.   It is not over yet 21:29  |  Libnani 14/02/08
      38.   I am still surprised 21:46  |  Libnani 14/02/08
      39.   israel confuses Rambo style operation with strategic value. 03:03  |  American 15/02/08
      40.   #39 American 06:18  |  Murray of Montreal 16/02/08
      41.   Nasrallah is wrong the US will back Israel all the way 18:12  |  Dish It Out 16/02/08
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