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Last update - 13:46 14/02/2008
ANALYSIS: Question now is not whether Hezbollah will respond, but how
By Yossi Melman
Tags: hezbollah, assassination 

Whoever carried out the operation demonstrated very impressive capabilities, in particular in collecting intelligence.

Such an operation requires the most exact planning for months in advance. Precise information is needed, which must come from the target's inner circle. They must have provided details on his daily routine, movements, hiding places and security arrangements.

Planning such an operation also requires precision in getting the operators where they need to be, and even more important, they must know how to get away. And all this must be done without leaving a trace.
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Such information is needed for almost every specific killing, but the mission of killing Mughniyah was much harder. For many years he was in the sights of Israeli intelligence and the CIA, as well as other Western intelligence agencies such as Britain's. But because Mughniyah knew all this, he was doubly cautious.

He was considered a grandmaster at evasion and keeping to the rules concerning his personal safety. He was always surrounded by a ring of bodyguards. He switched identities and passports, and he trusted no one - not even the people closest to him. He kept each of them isolated so none of them could betray him. Every time there is an assassination the question arises on whether it was worth it, and whether it will reduce terror.

There is no clear answer to this question - it is complicated. In those very few cases where the terror organization is an extension of its leader and operates as an "organization of one," then killing the leader is of the highest importance. This is what happened, for example, when the head of Islamic Jihad, Dr. Fathi Shikaki, was killed in 1995 in an attack in Malta ascribed to the Mossad.

In other cases, the target organization is large and the killing of one terrorist has no major significance. And the organization usually succeeds in finding an appropriate replacement; sometimes even one who outdoes his predecessor. A clear example of this is the Israel Defense Forces' killing in 1992 of Abbas Musawi, the Hezbollah secretary general, using attack helicopters. Hassan Nasrallah replaced Musawi, whose death Israel has regretted ever since. We were clearly on the losing side of the trade.

In the case of the killing of Mughniyah we can draw two opposing conclusions. One is that the killing created shock and awe in Hezbollah and damaged its self-confidence. There is no doubt that the killing sent an unequivocal message to Nasrallah that maybe he should lower his profile of arrogance and self-confidence.

In addition, the killing rocks the organization's stability and makes it raise its suspicions about traitors from the inside. Without any doubt, the killing will also harm Hezbollah's operational capabilities.

This is particularly true in light of Mughniyah's quarter-century display of impressive planning, control and implementation of terror operations, as well as his organizational abilities. These helped build Hezbollah's military arm and turned it into a well-oiled war machine and excellent guerrilla force - of course with help and training from Iran.

Hezbollah will clearly recover

The second conclusion is that in the long run Hezbollah will clearly recover from the killing and return to functioning normally as a political movement with its own militia that has an organization for carrying out terror attacks.

It seems that Mughniyah's replacement as a sort of defense minister or super chief of staff will be his deputy, Talal Hamiyah. Hamiyah was his faithful deputy and confidante for years, and in recent years he frequently visited Iraq to aid in establishing the Shi'ite militias there.

The big and more important question arising from the killing in Damascus is not whether Hezbollah will respond, but how and when.

There is no doubt Hezbollah and its Iranian masters, who had excellent relations with Mughniyah, have long memories and will demand revenge. It will not necessarily come immediately in a reflex action.

Their response will also not be along the border, because it seems they have no evidence to tie Israel directly to the killing. And the internal situation in Lebanon and the Middle East will keep them from acting against Israel; for example, by firing Katyusha rockets or attempts to heat up the border by infiltrations or kidnapping soldiers.

We can also estimate that they will not attempt a mass terror attack in Israel, such as by sending in a group of terrorists, because this is particularly hard to do. They have tried this in the past by sending terrorists who look like Europeans and carry European passports.

The more reasonable and likeliest possibility is that Hezbollah, with Iranian approval, will try to make a revenge attack against Israel overseas, in particular against an embassy.

In this case it seems they will look for areas that are Israel's "soft underbelly" such as the Israeli Embassy in Jordan, Egypt or certain African capitals - where it will be easier for them to act surreptitiously.

Related articles:
  • Israel embassies on high alert following Mughniyah killing
  • ANALYSIS: Mughniyah death could spark Lebanese civil war
  • ANALYSIS: U.S. involvement in Mughniyah killing still uncertain
  • Hariri memorial, Mughniyah funeral set to divide Beirut residents
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      1.   excellent work 05:06  |  Al 14/02/08
      2.   Correction for Haaretz 05:17  |  Clickfool 14/02/08
      3.   Hezbollah and Iran should be very carefull about "retaliaition" 05:25  |  Devin Leonard 14/02/08
      4.   Killers of Mughniyah & Hariri had the same MO 05:34  |  lydia 14/02/08
      5.   The real murderer is ... 05:40  |  anon 14/02/08
      6.   Unlikely 05:41  |  Baz Mann 14/02/08
      7.   Mugniyeh The Untouchable 05:46  |  George W. Bush 14/02/08
      8.   to #1 05:46  |  Absolute Truth 14/02/08
      9.   Another one bites the dust! 05:49  |  B 14/02/08
      10.   # 2 clickful. For once in your life you have got it right 06:46  |  dan 14/02/08
      11.   he was given to israel as a token of good will 07:43  |  eric 14/02/08
      12.   his photograph 08:09  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 14/02/08
      13.   Just opportune...? 08:14  |  Esther 14/02/08
      14.   Re lydia #4 08:20  |  Esther 14/02/08
      15.   UNLESS THIS 08:57  |  indrajaya 14/02/08
      16.   The question is 09:38  |  Natallie Durson 14/02/08
      17.   GOOD RIDDANCE!!!!! 09:40  |  trumpeldor 14/02/08
      18.   This empty PR stunt will cost Israeli dearly 09:52  |  Clickfool 14/02/08
      19.   Mugniyeh,is he realy dead? 09:58  |  David Nigel Braham 14/02/08
      20.   Who did it? 10:41  |  northern wind 14/02/08
      21.   clickfool "empty pr stunt" 10:51  |  brighton rock 14/02/08
      22.   Re David #19 11:20  |  Esther 14/02/08
      23.   a classic who done it? 11:50  |  M 14/02/08
      24.   Hizballah cannot do much immediately but 11:53  |  mehmet 14/02/08
      25.   #15 11:56  |  Sheikh Rattle & Roll 14/02/08
      26.   Shock and Awe 12:12  |  Tzfonit 14/02/08
      27.   What can you expect when you hurt someone? 12:15  |  Edith 14/02/08
      28.   #27 Edith in Belgium 12:48  |  Hastaroth 14/02/08
      29.   For MarkC # 28 13:20  |  Clickfool 14/02/08
      30.   #1 al 13:25  |  Harald 14/02/08
      31.   Too neat an operation! mughniyah is known to be careful about not 14:13  |  lakshmi 14/02/08
      32.   #28 Hastaroth 14:35  |  North American 14/02/08
      33.   If it was CIA would Barak or Hillary approve? 14:37  |  r 14/02/08
      34.   Clickfool # 18 PR Stunt? 14:43  |  Jeff Northridge 14/02/08
      35.   It`s called blowback 15:00  |  Chris Linthwaite 14/02/08
      36.   #34 Jeff Northridge 15:03  |  Chris Linthwaite 14/02/08
      37.   Yes Natallie, surprises surprises: Perhaps Nasrullah did it 15:30  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 14/02/08
      38.   #7. should pack and vacate Palestine 15:34  |  Fed Up American 14/02/08
      39.   Hezbollah chief at Mugniyah funeral 15:40  |  Chris Linthwaite 14/02/08
      40.   Iakshmi # 31 Habeas Corpus 15:52  |  Jeff Northridge 14/02/08
      41.   One thing I know for sure 16:07  |  Peter 14/02/08
      42.   Durson wrong again. Surprise yes, but bad new for Lebanon 16:12  |  Joe Sittizen 14/02/08
      43.   Clickfool 16:35  |  Ram 14/02/08
      44.   Tzfonit 16:35  |  Danite 14/02/08
      45.   La Cage aux Moogie 16:35  |  Gideon Reader 14/02/08
      46.   Danite #42 Hezballah Trembles 17:19  |  Tzfonit 14/02/08
      47.   israel is moving from one blunder to another!Nasrallah has 17:46  |  lakshmi 14/02/08
      48.   Clickfool - why do you assume it was Israel? 17:48  |  Mark Lincoln 14/02/08
      49.   Mossad, Congratulations for the Great Job 17:54  |  Tod Zuckerman 14/02/08
      50.   Did he deserve it? 17:55  |  John 14/02/08
      51.   Mehmet - everyone needs to keep their guard up 17:56  |  Mark Lincoln 14/02/08
      52.   Clickfool 18:00  |  Tom 14/02/08
      53.   Keystone Cops Mossad could not have done this 18:02  |  Clickfool 14/02/08
      54.   alien 18:06  |  mohamed kochen 14/02/08
      55.   I AM A JEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 18:12  |  smart jew 14/02/08
      56.   Danite, and the goal is ? 18:13  |  Ibrahim 14/02/08
      57.   There are millions of Imad`s out there, Israel is still losing... 18:31  |  Proud Palestinian 14/02/08
      58.   Chris Linthwaite 18:55  |  rich 14/02/08
      59.   #47 John 18:57  |  Sarah 14/02/08
      60.   Horrible time for Diaspora 18:57  |  Martijn Cohen 14/02/08
      61.   #52 Rich 19:28  |  Chris Linthwaite 14/02/08
      62.   "Horrible time for the Diaspora" # 57 19:34  |  Clickfool 14/02/08
      63.   Israeli Debka.com site reports: IDF masses to... 19:37  |  Dutch Dirk 14/02/08
      64.   Cut and Paste Fake Clickfool is about # 50 19:38  |  Clickfool 14/02/08
      65.   Answering Tom # 49 19:43  |  Clickfool 14/02/08
      66.   Putting one and one together 19:50  |  Tosefta 14/02/08
      67.   # 57 Martijn Cohen 19:51  |  Dutch Dirk 14/02/08
      68.   To smart jew 20:01  |  CHGODMK 14/02/08
      69.   A SAD DAY FOR ISRAEL THIS IS 20:01  |  TripleJump 14/02/08
      70.   Tzfonit "what I like about you" 20:12  |  danite 14/02/08