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The hit / Not merely revenge
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Tags: Mughniyah, israel, hezbollah

The establishment has been embroiled for several days in a heated debate over killing Hamas leaders in the Gaza Strip, but when the first lethal blow fell, it was in Damascus. The victim of Tuesday night's assassination was Hezbollah's deputy secretary general, Imad Mughniyah. Despite Hamas recent successes, he is a considerably more deadly and sophisticated terrorist than anything the Palestinian sister-movement has ever produced.

Like numerous assassinations of Lebanon- and Syria-based terrorists, from Islamic Jihad leader Fathi Shikaki (who was killed in Malta) to Hamas and Hezbollah members, Mughniyah's killing will remain, officially at least, a mystery.

This is not the kind of operation for which states tend to take public credit. The prime minister's bureau's comment yesterday was more an evasion than a denial.
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What matters more is what Hezbollah believes. The organization accused Israel of the assassination, and threatened immediate revenge. The Israeli leadership - prime minister, defense minister and chief of staff - kept mum in front of the cameras, just like they did after the air force attack in Syria on September 6.

The foreign reports - what would we do without them? - also gave credit to the Mossad. If that is true, it further corroborates the high regard Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has for Mossad chief Meir Dagan.

The Mossad also received credit abroad for September's attack. No wonder Olmert chose to extend Dagan's term by one more, sixth year.

In his life, Mughniyah spilled no less American blood than Israeli and Jewish blood. The Bush administration commended the assassination ("The world has become a better place") but as far as the United States was concerned, Mughniyah was more a terror celebrity than a real threat.

For Israel he was a different story. Such an assassination, it may be assumed, is not merely a matter of revenge but also foiling future attacks.

A person who was involved in a long list of terror attacks, including the abduction of the two reservists in July 2006, has most certainly been working on other plans. He died on Syrian land, contradicting Syria's denials of being in contact with him. Syria still has an open account with Israel over the attack on its nuclear facility.

Mughniyah's assassination - if it was carried out by Israel - strengthens the impression that Olmert is unafraid of making complex defense decisions that involve considerable risks.

The decision to enter the Second Lebanon War turned out to be a mistake that Israel is continuing to pay for. But the decisions that followed it apear balanced and justified. In view of Mughniyah's status and the future risk he posed, it was absolutely justified to attack him. The failure of Israel to strike at Hezbollah leaders, despite its efforts, had been seen as one of the war's greatest failures.

A previous assassination - of Hezbollah secretary general Abbas Musawi in February 1992 - was labeled in retrospect as a mistake, because it led to Hassan Nasrallah's rise to power. But Mughniyah is better compared to Shikaki, whose assassination paralyzed Islamic Jihad for several years.

The killing should worry mainly Nasrallah himself. Mughniyah helped maintain his personal security. He must be asking himself whether his enemies could reach him, too. No such success is possible without the target committing negligence, complacency or falling into a routine.

The black flags hoisted yesterday in Beirut's Shi'ite neighborhoods and in some southern Lebanon villages also reflect a severe blow to Hezbollah's prestige. One Lebanese commentator described Mughniyah's assassination as the harshest blow in the organization's history - even more so than Musawi's assassination.

This is precisely why Hezbollah is expected to seek vengeance as soon as possible. Hezbollah yesterday pledged "an eye for an eye, a man for a man, a leader for a leader." Such operations take time. Until then, Hezbollah may pressure his proteges - Palestinian groups in the territories - to carry out swift suicide bombings in Israel, as a prelude to revenge.
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  1.   greater terror 13:41  |  Truth 14/02/08
  2.   Truth 14:29  |  Ehud 14/02/08
  3.   Murder 14:54  |  Sean 14/02/08
  4.   You are not getting it. Nasrallah is NOT afraid of martyrdom. 15:56  |  Fed Up American 14/02/08
  5.   #1,2,3 hear hear israel hate fest 16:09  |  Bob 14/02/08
  6.   #1 & #3; Truth and Sean, the reality of the situation 16:25  |  Doc Holliday 14/02/08
  7.   The Usual Rats - The Usual Sewers 16:59  |  Kurt 14/02/08
  8.   Murder? 17:17  |  David 14/02/08
  9.   gasping for air? 17:19  |  David 14/02/08
  10.   #Sean 17:21  |  Eugene 14/02/08
  11.   Fed up (American?) 17:59  |  Ehud 14/02/08
  12.   How far anti Israel people go to poison the world 18:07  |  Massoud Levy 14/02/08
  13.   Thank you 18:12  |  Amir 14/02/08
  14.   just rememmber how long that sweetness will last 18:16  |  son of yaffa 14/02/08
  15.   #1 illusions 18:23  |  RK 14/02/08
  16.   1 & 3: Killing combatants is no war crime 20:05  |  Itzik 14/02/08
  17.   #3 20:28  |  B 14/02/08
  18.   martyrdom 20:35  |  steve dill 14/02/08
  19.   sean 20:39  |  A.M. 14/02/08
  20.   to Fed UP american 21:06  |  mike 14/02/08
  21.   Typical Isreali propaganda 23:09  |  Jake 14/02/08
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