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IDF tanks operating in Gaza in December (AP)
Last update - 10:41 12/02/2008
ANALYSIS: Hamas banks on IDF invasion to deliver final blow to Abbas
By Zvi Barel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Hamas, Egypt, Israel 

Those who follow the news on Hamas' Website or hear its spokesmen will have a difficult time deciding who Hamas' real enemy is. Is it Israel? Egypt's state media, which launched a media offensive against the organization behind the breach of Egypt's border? Or is it the Palestinian Authority, depicted as an enemy in cahoots with the Zionist entity?

After all, the fire of Qassam rockets at Israel is determined by its relationship with Fatah, the Palestinian Authority and the Arab governments, just as much as it is by Israel's response. In a way, the Qassams are aimed not only against Israel but also at Ramallah and Cairo.

"Hamas will not allow anyone to undermine its military power that manifested itself in the seizure of the Gaza Strip, nor shall it allow anyone to undermine its political power that manifested itself in its near complete control of the Palestinian parliament," wrote Abdullah al-Rahim, a Palestinian supporter of Hamas. "[Hamas] is not stupid and will therefore not permit the international, Arab and Islamic sense of outrage over the suffocating siege of Gaza to dissipate.
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On the other hand, al-Rahim claims that "Fatah will not be able to concede political defeat by allowing Hamas to govern or even give it any kind of legitimacy. That is why it is demanding Hamas completely abandon its gains in what it calls a 'coup.' This goal cannot be realized because Hamas will not be easily willing to relinquish its gains that cost Palestinian blood."

Here lay the epicenter of the internecine Palestinian struggle in which Israel has become a pawn. One aspect of this struggle is control of the Rafah crossing, which has already sparked threatening clashes with Egypt. Saudia Arabia and Cairo understand Hamas will not completely relinquish control of the crossings or of its political standing to veto any diplomatic process. For a long time they have been trying to reconcile between Fatah and Hamas. At this stage, they know it will be too risky - for Egypt in particular - to sever ties with Hamas, which manipulates Arab public opinion so well. But Egyptian concessions to Hamas humiliate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

In the diplomatic arena, Hamas believes a confrontation with Israel that may shed a lot of blood will make their organization seem heroic in the eyes of the Arab public. Particularly, it will prevent Abbas from negotiating with Israel while Israel crushes neighborhoods in Gaza. At the same time, criticism against the organization by its Fatah foes will be construed as supporting Israel as it slays Palestinians.

Such a military campaign, Hamas believes, threatens Abbas just as much as it does Hamas and the citizens of Gaza. Renewing talks between Fatah and Hamas is seen as the last ditch effort to avoid confrontation with Israel, but Abbas will not allow it.

How long Abbas will be able to stand firm in his opposition in light of Syrian and Egyptian pressure to renew talks with Hamas is the question on everybody's mind. If Israel carries out a military operation in Gaza, he will have to review his stance toward Israel and Hamas, which may be the biggest beneficiary of such a scenario.

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      1.   curiouser and curiouser...Alice In Wonderland 02:12  |  Lewis Carrol 12/02/08
      2.   Yup. 02:21  |  Mark Lincoln 12/02/08
      3.   israel`s bravado concerning an invasion of Gaza is just that 02:38  |  lakshmi 12/02/08
      4.   Hamas` only wants to murder Israelis. 02:45  |  Fortuna Benmayor 12/02/08
      5.   The Price Of Past Mistakes 03:08  |  juniper 12/02/08
      6.   ALL HAMAS WANTS IS ISRAEL 03:23  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/02/08
      7.   Hamas` secret weapon - they love death 03:35  |  Earthling 12/02/08
      8.   Abbas = dead man walking 03:36  |  spyguy 12/02/08
      9.   Palestinian Blood Cost Is The Result Of Arabs Leaders War Crimes 03:42  |  Joseph . E 12/02/08
      10.   Feud & Feudalism are the two pillars of Arab Madness. 03:55  |  Akram Zekaria 12/02/08
      11.   Why invade that garbage dump? 04:13  |  ottomatik 12/02/08
      12.   so be it then we donot owe impotent incompetentabbas jewish lives 04:13  |  ralph 12/02/08
      13.   Barel Interested in Strenghtening Anyone who is against Israel 04:23  |  Joseph . E 12/02/08
      14.   Lakshmi - casualties 04:30  |  Mark Lincoln 12/02/08
      15.   Real negotiations with Abbas will strenghten him 04:49  |  Mark B. 12/02/08
      16.   Barel_If Hamas Was So Calculating and Could Move So Many Pieces 05:12  |  Eli 12/02/08
      17.   Lakshmi_These Are Some Potent Questions By Amitabh 05:37  |  Eli 12/02/08
      18.   # 14 Mark Lincoln.....thank you very much 05:38  |  Lynn 12/02/08
      19.   Hamas has absolutely no depth in defence 05:51  |  B (The other one) 12/02/08
      20.   This is just one reporter`s opinion 06:14  |  GPS 12/02/08
      21.   #16, Eli 06:18  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/02/08
      22.   #19 The aren`t going to stand up and fight, B 06:33  |  Johnboy 12/02/08
      23.   Israel doesn`t know what Hamas wants 07:13  |  Natallie Durson 12/02/08
      24.   the one "KEY" point made in this article... 07:21  |  eric 12/02/08
      25.   A FINAL BLOW IS THE RIGHT ONE 07:22  |  indrajaya 12/02/08
      26.   #23, Durson 07:56  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/02/08
      27.   #24, eric 08:02  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/02/08
      28.   there is no grand scheme here 08:05  |  Charles Morgan 12/02/08
      29.   Hamas=Hezb. Abbas=Siniora Gaza=Lebanon 08:25  |  Pablo B 12/02/08
      30.   NDURSON.What Hamas Wants."Jew eating rabbit" on Hamas` CHILD.TV 08:31  |  PETER SM 12/02/08
      31.   B - Hamas doesn`t need physical depth in defense 08:43  |  Pablo B 12/02/08
      32.   INDRAJAYA HAMAS CONVOLUTED CONSPIRACY MEETS YOUR APPROVAL 08:49  |  PETER SM 12/02/08
      33.   JOHNBOY.IDF not waiting for your military advice 08:58  |  PETER SM 12/02/08
      34.   Israel is not in fact a pawn 09:45  |  Richard Witty 12/02/08
      35.   # 27 did you "read" my post, cipora? 10:25  |  eric 12/02/08
      36.   #33 PETER SM wants the IDF to fall for the "rope a dope" 10:56  |  Johnboy 12/02/08
      37.   #35, eric 11:06  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/02/08
      38.   why Hamas is asking for an Israel invasion 11:08  |  drdanielito 12/02/08
      39.   #36, I hold my nose but have to agree with you 11:12  |  nina 12/02/08
      40.   #36 johnboy remember joe louis ? 11:16  |  v hardman 12/02/08
      41.   JOHNBOY did you actually read my post? 12:02  |  PETER SM 12/02/08
      42.   Agreed. I say don`t. Use other means 12:10  |  Jo 12/02/08
      43.   New rules. 12:21  |  Malka Ziv 12/02/08
      44.   Akram Zekaria @#10 12:47  |  akiva (zionist) 12/02/08
      45.   Real negotiations, Mark B. of Amsterdam @#15 12:52  |  akiva (zionist) 12/02/08
      46.   To the last person 13:21  |  Laurence 12/02/08
      47.   17,Eli,&14 Mark Lincoln,Eli I don`t read the fake posters posts! 15:01  |  lakshmi 12/02/08
      48.   Abbas is a looser 15:44  |  najour 12/02/08
      49.   For Israel and IDF, Not Exactly "Breaking News" 15:54  |  Alex 12/02/08
      50.   #39 16:04  |  Fabio 12/02/08
      51.   Response to akiva (zionist) 16:29  |  Mark B. 12/02/08
      52.   Lakshmi_Fake Or Not Poster, The Questions Are Legitimate 16:55  |  Eli 12/02/08
      53.   Johnboy & Pablo: No Depth in Defence 16:57  |  B (The other one) 12/02/08
      54.   52 Eli,. .contd.the social scene has changed considerably, 17:44  |  lakshmi 12/02/08
      55.   mightiest empire of all time cannot at this 23:03  |  bozhidar balkas 12/02/08
      56.   6. dear cipora. u make some valid points. 23:21  |  bozhidar balkas 12/02/08
      57.   Hamas will be the winner 00:33  |  Jim 13/02/08
      58.   Lakshmi # 54_C`Mon Now. You Are Sinking Deeper Into The Hole 05:02  |  Eli 13/02/08
      59.   #53 You expect them to fight the way you WANT them to fight, B 06:15  |  Johnboy 13/02/08
      60.   Hamas loves to bomb themselves - Jihad 06:56  |  Analysis 13/02/08
      61.   Iranian Junta in Gaza 20:22  |  st dortenik 14/02/08
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