Gaza Escalation / Hamas' new policy of deterrence - Haaretz

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Tue., February 12, 2008 Adar1 6, 5768

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Gaza Escalation / Hamas' new policy of deterrence

By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff

The injuries suffered by the two Twito brothers as a result of Saturday night's Qassam rocket strike on Sderot has still not sent the Israel Defense Forces into the Gaza Strip on a major ground offensive. Israel's political leadership remains unconvinced that the military plan will necessarily bring about a positive change to the situation along the border with the Strip.

In spite of the political pressure to take action, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak would like to maximize the room they have to maneuver before they order a large-scale military operation.

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However, the direction of developments in recent weeks is clear. It is hinting more and more toward a direct confrontation, in the near future, between Hamas and the IDF. One of the main reasons for the escalation stems from the attempt by Hamas to establish a new deterrent against Israel.

Since mid-January, Hamas has operated differently in the Strip. It no longer uses short-term and irrational responses to IDF ground raids or air attacks. For each Israeli operation, especially if it involves a large number of casualties from the ranks of the organization, Hamas responds with a drawn-out rocket barrage of three to four days. At its completion, Hamas lowers the intensity, until the next round of violence.

The latest example of this occurred last week. On Tuesday, nine members of Hamas were killed in an IDF operation. Two days later, seven more Palestinians were killed, six gunmen and a civilian. Hamas fired, according to its press release, no less than 135 Qassam rockets and mortars between Tuesday and Saturday night, in addition to shooting from various smaller groups. Yesterday, Hamas stopped shooting.

The message: henceforth, every Israeli operation will result in a similar response. Hamas is hoping that Israel will agree, after repeated bombing of Sderot, to a tahdiye (calm) in the territories, and even believe they can bring about an end to the arrests that the IDF is carrying out in the West Bank.

Behind the Hamas decision lies the assumption that the Israeli leadership is wary of a large-scale ground operation. This is based on the traumatic experience of the Second Lebanon War and Israeli concern that it may suffer heavy casualties. Senior officials in the Islamic organization believe that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is too concerned with his political future to risk initiating a broad IDF operation in the Strip.

The heated statements of Israeli ministers during yesterday's cabinet meeting were seen in the Strip as empty threats. Hamas' main concern is that Israel will now choose a campaign of assassinations against senior figures in the military wing of the group, but perhaps also political leaders. This explains the Hamas threats that they will react with attacks of unprecedented nature if their leaders are targeted.

The IDF's relative failure is evident when confronted with the main Hamas weapon - the Qassam. Since the disengagement, a great deal of money and effort has been invested in the development of a doctrine and the means to quickly identify the launch of missiles and then strike at the crews launching them from the air and the ground. The results to date have been minimal, even in conditions of good visibility.

The operation by Golani soldiers in the northern Gaza Strip last week offered a glimpse into the reasons for these poor results. Hamas has begun launching rockets from crude underground silos, using timers - a method used by Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But when Hamas conducts its own internal assessment, it knows that its achievement have also been limited. Indeed, it has managed to terrorize an entire city, but it is not claiming the same kind of casualties that it did during the first three years of the intifada. And contrary to those years, its threat is not felt in the center of the country, nor has the Israeli economy suffered any significant consequences.

The main difference between the two sides now is the ability of their societies to absorb punishment and the different way they respond to casualties: the Palestinians are nearly resigned to their enormous losses, while in Israel even wounded children are a strategic problem.

At this stage, while the IDF is completing its preparations for a much more extensive operation, it seems that Israel will not divert significantly from its current approach: ground operations near the border fence, air strikes, assassinations (these will likely increase). Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi shares the view of Defense Minister Ehud Barak that there are still parts of the plan that are not yet complete, and only then will he be ready to give his full support for a broad offensive.

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