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Last update - 00:00 04/02/2008
ANALYSIS: Terror attack was matter of time after Gaza border breach
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: Palestinian terror, Egypt 

Despite the closure of the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt on Sunday, it seemed that the next attack, kidnapping or suicide bombing carried out by a Palestinian group against Israelis, in Sinai or the southern Negev, was just a matter of time. With the border remaining completely open for 12 days, it is difficult to estimate the amount of arms and munitions that were brought into the Strip.

Hani and Rami Hamdan, the two brothers from Gaza caught on Saturday wearing explosive belts in Sinai by the Egyptian security forces, four kilometers west of Rafah, were not operating independently. Just a day earlier the Egyptians arrested 15 armed Palestinians in Sinai, 12 of whom were members of Hamas. Last week, another cell of five Palestinians was arrested near the Taba crossing, and explosive belts were found in their possession.

It is fair to assume that in spite of the Egyptian interest to cooperate with Israel in an effort to avert attacks, there are cells who have managed to evade them and hide in the broad expanses of Sinai. In Egypt, they believe that these cells are planning attacks in Sinai, but it also appears that some of them will try to penetrate into Israel along the 300 kilometers of the porous Israel-Sinai border.
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Some of the cells are linked with Hamas. Others are part of smaller Palestinian factions. What is clear is that Egypt is now dependent on the goodwill of the Islamic organization. If Hamas wishes, the border at Rafah will remain sealed. If it does not, thousands of Palestinians will be allowed once more to rush into Sinai.

Cairo now finds itself facing conflicting Palestinian pressure. Hamas is demanding to set up an orderly crossing through Rafah. If Cairo refuses, the Hamas policemen will ensure that Palestinians sneak into Sinai, like they did Sunday. Hamas wants larger supplies of fuel and electricity from Egypt. This is also something that Egypt will find it difficult to oppose, since the organization enjoys public support in Egypt, where it is regarded as the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

However, if Egypt agrees to Hamas' demands, it will come into conflict with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who is opposed to any compromises with the Islamic organization, and to tensions with the Americans. Cooperation with Hamas in opening the Rafah crossing means a perpetuation of the Hamas rule in Gaza and a deepening of the rift between Fatahland in the West Bank and Hamastan in the Gaza Strip.

On the face of it, Israel may find some satisfaction at finally seeing Egypt drawn into the Gaza quagmire. But the situation is not a zero-sum game in which a loss for Cairo is an advantage for Jerusalem. Gaza has remained an Israeli problem.

The most troubling aspect of these dramatic developments is that they occured almost by accident and not as a result of an orderly decision-making process in Israel. Defense Minister Ehud Barak decided in mid-January to tighten the economic blockade of the Gaza Strip and close the crossings completely following a barrage of rocket attacks against Sderot.

The matter was not discussed in an orderly fashion, nor were the professional echelons consulted. The cabinet was nearly not part of the process, and the broadening of the cuts to fuel supplies was done through a broad interpretation of the Supreme Court decision.

For their part, Israeli intelligence missed the meaning of the preparations carried out by Hamas for breaching the border. On the eve of the breakout, the defense establishment in Israel described their policy on the blockade as "trial and error." It seems that it was mostly error.

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      1.   Ticking Bomb? Marching Army 02:15  |  David Schorie 04/02/08
      2.   The Defense Establishment`s Fecklessness 02:29  |  Norman F Birnberg 04/02/08
      3.   Why does Israel refuse to allow Palestine to exist? 03:35  |  POP 04/02/08
      4.   Israel has turned Gaza into a modern-day-version of Warsaw Ghetto 03:37  |  POP 04/02/08
      5.   All this with the full support of Haaretz folly 03:47  |  Genuine Tosefta 04/02/08
      6.   HAMAS should be warned that Israel will retaliate strongly,firmly 04:21  |  Vittorio 04/02/08
      7.   Intelligence 04:43  |  Ron 04/02/08
      8.   #4 Ron CA 05:02  |  * BEN JABO 04/02/08
      9.   Return Gaza to Egypt!! 05:24  |  US CITIZEN 04/02/08
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      11.   solving Gaza 05:43  |  EA 04/02/08
      12.   israel lies again 05:54  |  Donnie 04/02/08
      13.   #11, we don`t have to imagine; that is exactly what happened 07:07  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/02/08
      14.   War against terrorists. 07:50  |  Harold Lane 04/02/08
      15.   let`s resume: 07:55  |  Kris 04/02/08
      16.   First Lebanon, now Gaza..... 08:43  |  R 04/02/08
      17.   Donnie, in one of the other stories Ha`aretz... 08:47  |  MaryRose 04/02/08
      18.   Good time for a meaningful cease-fire, leading to a peace treaty 09:01  |  Pablo B 04/02/08
      19.   Israel`s boneheads simply don`t think things through 09:08  |  Clickfool 04/02/08
      20.   gaza border - after the first Winograd report we have been fixing 09:16  |  David 04/02/08
      21.   Egypts involvement in Gaza is bad news for Israel 09:49  |  Natallie Durson 04/02/08
      22.   WHY??????? 10:03  |  Lev Bronstein 04/02/08
      23.   Clickfool, thank you for your analysis, it is very 10:16  |  Yaakov Sullivan 04/02/08
      24.   "BRONSTEIN"??????? Do both Hamas & Fatah claim ALL Israel?? 11:29  |  PETER SM 04/02/08
      25.   #22 trotsky lectures us from moscow ? 12:08  |  v hardman 04/02/08
      26.   the bomb has already gone off 12:26  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/02/08
      27.   Be real CAREFUL about what you wish for 12:37  |  spyguy 04/02/08
      28.   Power cut only lead to more free time... 12:44  |  Diana 04/02/08
      29.   More Than a Border Breach 14:15  |  Yaakov Sullivan 04/02/08
      30.   pop and the ghetto 15:00  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 04/02/08
      31.   so, immigrants in isr once again use 15:03  |  bozhidar bob balkas 04/02/08
      32.   in Gaza, little boys are handing out flowers and candy 15:13  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/02/08
      33.   well planned breech 15:15  |  Prof. David 04/02/08
      34.   Cipora Juliana Kohn on Jumping With Joy 15:24  |  Yaakov Sullivan 04/02/08
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      39.   Another security fence 16:21  |  KUTW 04/02/08
      40.   Ahmose? do you mean humus? 16:26  |  The Arab Hammer 04/02/08
      41.   Rory just landed from another planet 16:36  |  The Arab Hammer 04/02/08
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      48.   To The Arab Hammer #40 17:43  |  Ahmose The Egyptian 04/02/08
      49.   Cipora 17:47  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 04/02/08
      50.   the dull hammer (41) 17:51  |  Rory 04/02/08
      51.   The steps of folly 17:51  |  Mark Lincoln 04/02/08
      52.   heads they win, tails you lose 17:53  |  gungho 04/02/08
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      59.   El Birawi as simple as complicated 18:54  |  Ferragamo 04/02/08
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      94.   #86 You Mistake My Response 00:53  |  Tom 05/02/08
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      117.   #114 12:56  |  Rab Burns 05/02/08
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      119.   #114 Maureen Ann to Peter 00:54  |  * BEN JABO 06/02/08
      120.   Gaza 23:16  |  Karl Eysenbach 06/02/08
      121.   #118, Ben Jabo... 07:38  |  Silvienne 07/02/08
      122.   #121 2ND TRY Silveinne 01:16  |  * BEN JABO 09/02/08
      123.   #110 Maureen Ann - "To die on your feet" 01:19  |  * BEN JABO 09/02/08
      124.   #122, Ben Jabo... 07:19  |  Silvienne 10/02/08
      125.   #124 Silvienne - For once in your life be realistic 10:20  |  * BEN JABO 10/02/08
      126.   #114 Maureen Ann 23:10  |  * BEN JABO 11/02/08
      127.   #125, Ben Jabo... 07:51  |  Silvienne 12/02/08
      128.   #127 Silvienne - Don`t hold your breath 17:48  |  * BEN JABO 12/02/08
      129.   #128, Ben Jabo, the numbers don`t lie... 09:40  |  Silvienne 13/02/08
      130.   #129 Silvienne - This will be the last time 18:09  |  * BEN JABO 13/02/08
      131.   #130, Ben Jabo... 23:50  |  Silvienne 14/02/08
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