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Hold the guillotine
By Yoel Marcus
Tags: Winograd Committee 

Although I have never eaten breakfast with Ehud Olmert, not this week or any other week, as some well-known political pundits and talkbackers have claimed, I would advise them to wait before setting up the guillotine.

The Winograd Committee made it clear that it would focus on the operative aspects of the Second Lebanon War and not on individuals. Yet a large proportion of the Israeli public believes that Olmert is directly responsible, not only for the death toll resulting from the ground offensive in the last 60 hours of the war, but also for the failure of the entire military operation, including the daily shelling of the home front and Nasrallah's audacity in offering us the body parts of Israeli soldiers. Our hearts go out to the bereaved parents and the soldiers who have been left crippled, physically and mentally.

But before rushing to lop off Olmert's head, Israelis need to consider one question: Is Olmert fit to carry on as Israel's prime minister, or is he not? We need to carefully weigh what is better for the country - political stability or chaos.
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The person who bears chief responsibility for the blunders of the war is Lieutenant General Dan Halutz. Olmert, like Sharon before him, was taken in by his charm and brash self-confidence. He trusted Halutz' assessment that the war could be won by air power alone. He discovered belatedly that his brilliant chief of staff was not so brilliant. Although he is not the commander of the armed forces, as American presidents are, Olmert took the risk of sending out an army that was not prepared for the military mission that lay ahead.

If the Winograd Committee has reached the conclusion that Olmert was responsible for the fiasco, the question is why it waited so long to toss him to the lions and whip the country into a frenzy. We will find out tomorrow, when the report comes off the press.

Olmert is not a popular politician. Instead of charming the public, his chummy behavior, backslapping and self-assured smiles only get people mad. But too few Israelis have thought about what will happen if he resigns, and about who will take his place.

Golda Meir's resignation after the Yom Kippur War brought Yitzhak Rabin to power in 1974, a first term in which he turned out to be unripe for leadership, prone to quarrels and confrontations, which contributed in part to the political upheaval in 1977 marking the end of Mapai rule and the rise of Menachem Begin.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Ehud Barak said that the "norms of prime ministerial accountability will have to be weighed against government stability, which is vital for Israel's security at this critical hour." Sounds like he's not so sure the prey will drop into his hands if Olmert is forced out. Matan Vilnai is saying that if Labor quits the government right now, it will only harm its chances and propel Bibi/Lieberman into power. It's not that Olmert is such a distinguished leader, but that the current alternatives are so lousy.

Before Olmert is shown the door, it is worth considering that he is the only prime minister who has placed reaching an accord with the Palestinians on his agenda. He was the first to say - even before Sharon - that the perpetuation of the status quo, i.e., the occupation, poses a threat to the future and survival of the State of Israel. He adopted the Annapolis trajectory and made commitments to President Bush. For the moment, nobody has come up with a candidate capable of grabbing the reins and moving ahead with Bush's vision of dialogue with Abu Mazen, no matter how weak a leader he is.

Quite a few American presidents have helped us, although, like Nixon, they haven't always loved us. But there has never been an American president as friendly to Israel as George W. Bush. Even if he is deluding himself that an agreement can be reached before his term is up at the end of 2008, the personal relationship forged between him and Olmert is an asset that is worth cultivating for the continued advancement of the diplomatic process.

Barak and Bibi, the comeback kids, are not exactly promising to keep the Annapolis fire burning, and the same is true for Tzipi Livni, Shaul Mofaz and Meir Sheetrit (Sheetrit? Sure, why not? He'd also love to be prime minister). We have never had a prime minister who didn't make some mistake or other. Running this country is not exactly a picnic. Say what you like about him, but Olmert's desire to walk hand in hand with Bush and Condeleezza Rice - hungry for success before they go - in order to strengthen countries in this region that embrace sane Islam, is worthy of support at home.

Maybe there is no resemblance between the Second Lebanon War and the Yom Kippur War, but the public is blessed with a long memory. If Olmert doesn't keep his promise to lead us to peace, the public that waited three years to topple Mapai in 1977 will neither forgive nor forget. Meanwhile, let's hold the guillotine.
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  1.   Y. Marcus denies and obfuscates,but his advices have been tragic 14:04  |  Absolute Sweden 29/01/08
  2.   Olmert - GUILTY! 15:06  |  Theodore 29/01/08
  3.   Olmerts handling of Lebanon 2 was a monumental disaster 15:07  |  Natallie Durson 29/01/08
  4.   reaaaching the sky from the centre of the earrth 15:36  |  v hardman 29/01/08
  5.   No Use Holding back the Guillotine,,,, 15:47  |  Dagma 29/01/08
  6.   absolute sweden 16:13  |  scallywag 29/01/08
  7.   v hardman 16:16  |  scallywag 29/01/08
  8.   natallie durson 16:49  |  scallywag 29/01/08
  9.   Central theme of Haaretz is peace thru appeasement 16:50  |  Sam 29/01/08
  10.   #7 scallywag the treaties ar not worth the paper they are written 17:44  |  v hardman 29/01/08
  11.   Marcus excuse 17:57  |  Courage my love 29/01/08
  12.   Marcus - His Judgment Even Worse Than Halutz`s 18:10  |  Tod Zuckerman 29/01/08
  13.   LET HIM KEEP HIS HEAD : OFF WITH HIS BOLLOCKS 18:11  |  Andy Pandy 29/01/08
  14.   Yoel Marcus` article 18:34  |  Reuven 29/01/08
  15.   marcus olmert 19:05  |  Avigdor 29/01/08
  16.   a very wise advice by mr. marcus 19:16  |  saul a. readner 29/01/08
  17.   It is a far, far better thing that he goes to the headsman 23:18  |  Gideon Reader 29/01/08
  18.   Reuven,Churchill was inspiring his people,does Olmert do the same 23:20  |  Absolute Sweden 29/01/08
  19.   To Reuven # 11 - Comparing Olmert with Churchill .....! 02:00  |  Dagma 30/01/08
  20.   Y marcus article 03:00  |  evita 30/01/08
  21.   Yoel Marcus is wrong on his assessment 06:47  |  Kipperraes 30/01/08
  22.   Hold the guillotine 12:01  |  GPWS1 30/01/08
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