Subscribe to Print Edition | Thu., January 31, 2008 Shvat 24, 5768 | | Israel Time: 21:37 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Advertising Books Arts & Leisure Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File

De-fenceless in Gaza By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Gaza Strip Thousands of people engaged in transferring foodstuffs, jerricans of oil, packages of cleaning materials, cigarettes, flour and sugar, foam rubber to pad the benches of wedding guests and also fresh goats, to replenish the stock of meat. Vans, cars and trucks also clustered at the new border crossing to drive people to the Egyptian city of El Arish, and from there back to the Gaza Strip, all in a relaxed atmosphere and without panic. The feeling, at least based on the TV footage and testimony from civilians there, is that there is no need to hurry. This reality is not going to change tomorrow. As recently as two days before the border fence was blown up, Egypt sent some 300 policemen to bolster the guards at the Rafah crossing; on Wednesday those same police looked on as though that sort of thing happened every day. When it became known that the fence had been breached, and after a brief consultation with Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman and Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak gave an order not to interfere with the passage of Palestinians as long as they were involved in purchasing basic commodities. This week members of that population demonstrated against Egypt's policy toward the Palestinians, and expressed their wrath over the fact that their government was remaining silent about the goings-on in Gaza. In Egypt, it is clear that the decision to allow the Palestinians to cross into Egyptian territory will have an effect on more than the country's relationship with the Palestinian Authority or Hamas: The main damage is liable to be caused to Egyptian relations with Israel, and perhaps with Washington as well. Advertisement Dr. Wahid Abdel Megid, an assistant director of the Al-Ahram Center for Political & Strategic Studies, in Cairo, has no doubt about that. "The cold peace with Israel is liable to turn into a stormy peace," he wrote this week in his newspaper column in Al-Ahram. Relations between Israel and Egypt could be put to a difficult test if Israel persists in imposing a siege on the Gaza Strip. Abdel Megid wrote this even before the fence was broken through, where it looked as if Egypt was conducting a violent struggle against the Palestinians alongside Israel. Mubarak's problem and that of other Arab leaders became crystal clear when it emerged that Gaza could no longer be left out of the equation in political discussions. Khaled Meshal, the head of Hamas' political bureau, coined the formula: "The cascades of blood are shocking to every national and international conscience. They will not stop as long as there exists a Zionist entity, Arab impotence, an absence of international determination, and internal Palestinian schism." Meshal spoke at a Damascus press conference, while a demonstration took place at the nearby Yarmuk refugee camp. That in turn sparked a string of demonstrations in Arab countries and also gave the signal for a powerful media campaign, led by the Al Jazeera network, the thrust of whose complaint was directed at the silence of the Arab leaders. "The Arab leaders must at least raise their voices against what is happening in the Gaza Strip," exhorted Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, who himself has not managed to come up with an Arab compromise formula that would be accepted by Syria and Hezbollah for resolving the political crisis in Lebanon. The leader of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has also called upon Egypt to open the border crossings to Gaza and to allow goods and people to pass through them. In Jordan, the opposition has called for the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador; in other Arab countries there has been broad coverage of the demonstrations against what is perceived as Arab impotence. Domestic considerations At the beginning of the week, it still seemed as though Egypt was "standing firm" against these pressures. Egypt wanted to avoid yet another confrontation with Israel or Washington over the issue of the border crossing. It had had enough over a month ago - when it allowed a group of pilgrims from Gaza to pass though on their way to Mecca, and when it allowed them to return by the same route, it was perceived by Israel as a direct enemy. But domestic Egyptian considerations gained the upper hand. Hence, too, the tremendous media effort Egypt made this week to establish that they, and no other Arab party, had convinced Israel to lift the sanctions a bit - for example, to transfer fuel and also convoys of medicine to the Strip. The other "Arab party" that claimed the credit was Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, whose advisor Nimr Haddad published a detailed statement at the beginning of the week in which he explained that Abbas himself, in an exceptional way had proposed that the PA would take the management of the border crossings upon itself. Khaled Meshal thanked both sides for their efforts, but made it clear that letting through a few more shipments of fuel did not constitute a solution to the problem of the siege. The firing of Qassams on Sderot and the response by the Israel Defense Forces, both in killing Palestinians in the Zeitoun neighborhood and in the total closure that was imposed this week, have created a new equation, one that has become so familiar in Lebanon, in which Hamas comes out the winner no matter what. It can determine the number of Qassam rockets that are fired on the town and thus determine a criterion for "relative quiet," "calm" or "noise." It will thus dictate the Israeli response on the ground, and through that - the Arab reaction. Meshal can also determine whether to establish "Grapes of Wrath-type understandings" with Israel concerning Gaza, by means of the hudna (cease-fire) or tahadiyeh (temporary truce) that he has proposed and that has won support in Israel. In this he would also serve to further weaken the status of Abbas, who is not able to stop even one single Qassam. Meshal has succeeded in proving to Israel, to the leaders of the Arab world and to the Quartet (the European Union, the United States, Russia and the United Nations), that it will be impossible to discuss the Annapolis resolutions or any other political proposal without Gaza, which is to say - without him. Abbas realized this week that as long as there is someone in Gaza who is dictating the mood in all of Palestine, he himself will not be able to be seen in an embrace with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert or Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni again. On Tuesday he did declare that the political negotiations must go on despite the events in Gaza." The events in Gaza have made clear to Abbas is that even if he does agree to enter into a political dialogue with Hamas, the points that the organization has accumulated this week, thanks to the suffering of the residents of the Strip, will enable it to dictate the terms of that dialogue. It is no wonder that Hamas is again voicing its demand to hold early elections for the Palestinian parliament, on the assumption that the Israeli pressure on Gaza and its transformation into Palestine's victim will reinvigorate the movement with the power that it had two years ago, which had eroded in the meantime. Nevertheless, both Egypt and Saudi Arabia believe that the most reasonable solution at the moment, considering the lack of confidence in Israel's desire to conduct a serious political process, is to establish a joint Fatah-Hamas Palestinian Authority so that it will be possible at least to solve the problem of Gaza, and to eliminate from the agenda the "stormy peace" threat of which Wahid Abdel Megid spoke. Arab League meeting In about a month and a half, the annual Arab League summit is due to open, this time in Damascus. Should they accept Abbas' formula, by which, since Hamas carried out a military coup d'etat in Gaza, it does not have the right to be accepted as a part of the legitimate Palestinian representation; or should they call for and act toward the establishment of a Palestinian unity government that would effectively suspend the continuation of negotiations with Israel, which in any case are not bearing fruit? Another, albeit secondary, problem, is whether to hold the summit in Damascus at all, at a time when Syria's relations with Egypt and Saudi Arabia are at a special nadir. Saudi Arabia does not want to be in a situation in which its King Abdullah passes leadership of the league over to Syrian President Bashar Assad, at a time when Assad demonstrates scorn at every proposal Saudi Arabia makes in the matter of Lebanon. Saudi Arabia does, however, support intra-Palestinian reconciliation, and it understands that without Syria's agreement it will have a hard time getting such a reconciliation up and running. And what will happen if Syria invites Khaled Meshal to the meeting? In the meantime it appears that another solution is emerging to the question of the summit, namely the possibility of an Egyptian "hijacking" that will allow for an "emergency meeting" to be held in place of a regular one, thus obviating the need to hold a regular meeting in Damascus. And what will the justification be for this? What else: the situation in Gaza. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Painful lessons The IDF has already learnt lessons of the Second Lebanon War. Brothers in guilt 'We are all guilty; is an effective summary of the final Winograd report.   1.   Barel can`t imagine somebody could say "No" to Hamas 14:06  |  Absolute Sweden 25/01/08   2.   Israels policy of killing and oppression fails again 16:07  |  Natallie Durson 25/01/08   3.   Gaza policy a failure 21:32  |  rick 25/01/08   4.   When Ghetto walls do fall 00:00  |  Jew 26/01/08

Today Online Olmert allies: PM won't quit despite damning war probe report Responses: 86 Jewish group to build 200 new homes in East Jerusalem Responses: 150 Winograd: Current use of cluster bombs not in line with int'l law Responses: 66 Israel says Libya unworthy of seat on UN Security Council Responses: 64 Israel Harel: Public shares blame for mistakes in war Responses: 14 More Headlines 18:27 Opposition leader Netanyahu: Olmert is incompetent, unfit to lead 20:41 Solana, Blair to travel to Middle East next week to discuss Gaza border crisis 17:30 Lebanon: Winograd war probe report sets scene for future war 20:48 visiting U.S. singer Badu says backs Farrakhan, Palestinian cause 21:35 Brazil judge bans carnival float depicting naked Holocaust victims 15:35 Peretz: Lebanon War was missed opportunity, but was necessary 16:56 IDF kills Palestinian approaching Israel border in southern Gaza 20:50 Cut in Internet cables off Egypt causes outages across Mideast to India 16:53 Egypt blocks Gaza cars from Sinai, pedestrians still entering 13:55 Shekel hits 10-year high against dollar as U.S. interest rates cut 20:58 U.K. conservative angers EU parliament for making Nazi comment 16:18 German authorities charge 22-year-old man with stabbing rabbi 20:18 Jerusalem to build city's first non-Orthodox secular burial site Previous Editions Select Day 30 jan 29 jan 28 jan 27 jan 25 jan 24 jan 23 jan 22 jan 21 jan 20 jan 18 jan 17 jan

Special Offers Advertisement ISRAEL BONDS Build Israel Israel bonds - a multi-purpose way to celebrate Israel's 60th Dead Sea Salt Beauty and skin care from the Dead Sea. Coupon code HAARETZ for 10% off! FAREWELL ISRAEL New Film The Coming War for Islamic Revival - View Movie Trailer Inbal Jerusalem Hotel Unbeatable rates at the Finest hotel in Jerusalem Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations SUPER-TUESDAY U.S. PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY U.S. citizen in Israel vote Democrats-Abroad Global Primary online, in-person. Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved