Subscribe to Print Edition | Fri., January 18, 2008 Shvat 11, 5768 | | Israel Time: 20:02 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Advertising Books Arts & Leisure Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File

Mourners carrying the bodies of Palestinians killed in IDF raids in the Gaza Strip Tuesday. (AP) Last update - 05:32 16/01/2008 ANALYSIS / Despite raid, Hamas, Israel don't seek escalation By Amos Harel and Avi Isacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents Tags: Gaza Strip, Hamas, Israel  Tuesday's fighting in the Gaza Strip and western Negev was the fiercest in a year, making it one of the worst days since the disengagement in August 2005. The Palestinians suffered 19 deaths and dozens of wounded. On the Israeli side, a foreign volunteer was killed at Kibbutz Ein Hashlosha, a few people were lightly wounded in Sderot, and dozens of Qassam rockets and mortar shells fell on communities near Gaza and a Katyusha rocket hit Ashkelon. Despite this, Tuesday's military operation in Gaza was basically routine. It was not part of a major operation to reoccupy the Strip; neither Israel nor Hamas is currently interested in a broader confrontation. Nevertheless, a cautionary note must be added to this assessment: The large number of fatalities suffered by Hamas - more than 30 since the start of the month - could push the organization into escalation even if this is not in its interest. Advertisement Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday that fewer Israelis were killed by Palestinian terror in 2007 than in any year since 1999, and he "strongly recommends not becoming embroiled in operations and costs that bear no proportion to the constraints that we face" - a reference to a major operation in Gaza. Senior Israel Defense Forces officers say their impression is that neither Olmert nor Defense Minister Ehud Barak wants an escalation in the Strip. However, this picture contains another element as well: the deal to free kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. Mahmoud Zahar, who lost a second son to IDF fire Tuesday, is the politician with the most influence on Hamas's military wing, which holds Shalit. The death of his son might stall negotiations on the Shalit deal, which had recently seemed on the verge of a breakthrough. And since the deal, in which Israel would swap 450 Palestinian prisoners for Shalit, would likely have included a temporary cease-fire, the chances of escalation increase if it is put on ice. Even before Tuesday, there were doubts about whether a government incapable even of ending a strike by university lecturers could put together a complicated deal with Hamas. Now, the chances seem even smaller. The IDF entered Gaza City's Zeitoun neighborhood Tuesday to hunt for cells that fire mortars at Israel, and succeeded in hitting two such cells. When Hamas sent in forces to fight the soldiers, it lost 13 men in the ensuing battle. That, however, was a brief clash in a relatively open area. Were the IDF to move deep into built-up areas of Gaza and stay there for some time, as it would in a major operation, Hamas would be able to pick its targets, and Israel would almost certainly suffer casualties. That is one reason why Olmert and Barak prefer simply to continue the current limited operations. But the decision is is not wholly in their hands. All of Hamas's responses thus far have deliberately targeted Israel's civilian population, and while it has made little use of Qassams in recent months, its rockets are far more accurate and deadly than those of the smaller terrorist organizations. Thus should it choose, it could clearly cause more damage than it has to date - which in turn could force Israel to escalate. Zahar's power in internal Palestinian politics is likely to grow as a result of Tuesday's events. So far, however, it seems that even the operation in Zeitoun did not constitute sufficient reason for Hamas to open a broader front against Israel. For both sides, the current situation is preferable to an escalation that would end in Israel reoccupying Gaza. On the diplomatic front, it is too early to tell what effect Tuesday's Palestinian casualties will have on the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Faced with mounting public criticism, PA President Mahmoud Abbas was forced to denounce the "massacre" in Gaza, even though the vast majority of those killed were armed fighters. Abbas is worried about being seen as an Israeli collaborator, while Hamas paints itself as a patriotic organization that fights Israel. He may thus be forced to suspend the negotiations for a short time, as a symbolic gesture. The events of the next 24 hours, and particularly the number of Palestinian casualties, will have a decisive influence on developments along the Gaza border. A large number of fatalities is liable to drag Hamas into a harsh response. Major clashes have frequently been sparked by the unintended escalation of a limited conflict. How will we know if things are moving in this direction? If Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman announces Wednesday that he is remaining in the government because of the security situation, that would indicate that a major operation in Gaza might yet be in the offing. Related articles: 25 Qassams fired at Israel after deadly IDF Gaza raid News / IDF kills at least 19 Palestinians in Gaza raids Exiled Hamas leader says Bush 'incited the Zionists' to raid Gaza Bookmark to del.icio.us   West Bank shooting Kiryat Sefer man, 40, sustains wounds when terrorists open fire from passing car. Fighting words Barak vows to expand IDF operations against Qassam fire.   1.   I care to disagree with this analysis 05:07  |  Khalid 16/01/08   2.   Really? Israel doesn`t seek an escalation? 19 dead in 1 day? 05:16  |  peacelover 16/01/08   3.   good analysis 05:45  |  rondi 16/01/08   4.   Hello Khalid! 05:46  |  Barry 16/01/08   5.   Duch where are you? 05:46  |  rondi 16/01/08   6.   Duch where are you? 05:51  |  rondi 16/01/08   7.   I disagree with the analysis also 05:57  |  Al Hikma 16/01/08   8.   Actions speak louder than words 06:01  |  Natallie Durson 16/01/08   9.   Khalid 06:13  |  Zen 16/01/08   10.   Khalid`s Analysis Disagreeable 06:28  |  ATLAS 16/01/08   11.   Natalie- actions have consequences 07:29  |  Stephen in New York 16/01/08   12.   No Escalation =`s Capitulation 07:35  |  Orrei 16/01/08   13.   Artical assums a rational situation 07:56  |  Ron 16/01/08   14.   What if...? 09:22  |  Moshe ben Yitzhak 16/01/08   15.   This time it was not children in pizzaria! 09:32  |  Just Cause 16/01/08   16.   Khalid #1, What a great sense of humor! 12:01  |  Leo 16/01/08   17.   #1 Khalid - response 17:46  |  Mike 16/01/08   18.   When will the pals learn? 21:32  |  Dale 16/01/08   19.   Not in self defense, but for the land 01:07  |  marge 17/01/08   20.   12 sons of Jakob 14:26  |  alfred youngberg 18/01/08

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