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The pressure's on By Aluf Benn (Jerusalem), Shmuel Rosner (Washington) Tags: peace process There are countries where the government sends thousands of people out into the streets to cheer visiting dignitaries. In Jerusalem, the situation looked exactly the opposite this week. The roads surrounding the Prime Minister's Residence, which even on normal days suffer from a surfeit of security guards, turned into a fortified compound. Rehavia was like a ghost town that had been appropriated for the purpose of a security drill. Inside the residence sat Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his guest, U.S. President George W. Bush, discussing Iran's nuclear program. Thousands of hours of work by intelligence officers, ministers, advisors and others were concentrated into an hour and fifteen minutes of quality presidential time, during which Olmert tried to convince Bush that U.S. intelligence is mistaken, and that Iran is continuing apace to develop nuclear weapons. Ariel Sharon always contended that in relations with friendly countries, it is not enough to make do with professional cooperation between the intelligence authorities. He was thus accustomed to sending senior members of the Mossad, the Shin Bet security services and Military Intelligence to prepare his visits in foreign countries (and at the same time, to make the heads of intelligence beholden to the prime minister). Sharon brought his military secretary, General Yoav Galant, to the White House, in order to present Bush with satellite photos of Iranian nuclear facilities. This time, Olmert volunteered to act, himself, as the president's intelligence officer. Advertisement The recently published American National Intelligence Estimate, which determined that Iran froze its military nuclear program about four years ago, was a blow to Israeli hopes that Bush would bomb and destroy Iranian nuclear installations before ending his term. Bush's trip to the region was to a large extent designed to reassure Saudi Arabia and Israel, and to promise them that America is still committed to confronting Iran, "which was, is and will be a threat," as the president said in Jerusalem. As far as Olmert is concerned, it is preferable to have Bush deal with the Iranian bomb and release Israel from the dilemma of whether to act on its own - a move that in any case would require a green light from Washington. Olmert may not be aware of this, but waiting outside the room in which he met with Bush was Lieutenant General William M. Fraser III, who is in charge of international relations for the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. Fraser, whose uniform is laden with medals, has logged thousands of flight hours in B-52 and B-2 bombers, and was the chief of staff for U.S. Strategic Command. Few people in the world, if any, understand long-range bombing as he does. But he was not invited to express his opinion about an attack on Iran, and only conversed with the security guards. Up until a week ago, authoritative assessments in Washington were that the Iranians had apparently decided to spend the coming year making gradual progress in the nuclear program, without giving Bush an excuse to launch an attack. Therefore, some people were surprised by Monday's maritime incident, involving the aggressive approach toward U.S. Navy ships by what were apparently Iranian Revolutionary Guard boats. Later, talk-show host Jay Leno, who heard the president saying that he had no plans to attack Iran, said: "Oh, he's still going to attack - he just has no plans." Bush responded from Jerusalem with a public warning to Tehran not to provoke the American fleet. Meanwhile, the president and his administration are concentrating their efforts on Iran by strengthening the deterrence front. In advance of the president's visit to Saudi Arabia, the administration decided to take action, and asked Congress to move up its approval of the large weapons deal with the Gulf states by one day - from January 15 to 14 - as a gift to the Saudis, who will be hosting Bush that day. Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, one of the heads of the coalition of legislators who are concerned about that deal, told Haaretz two days ago that he had not yet received clarifications from the administration that would enable him and his colleagues to approve it. And if the Iranians are waiting for the next administration, in the hope that it will be "softer" than Bush's, they may be in for a surprise: Senator John McCain, winner of the Republican primary in New Hampshire, has in the past expressed himself no less harshly than Bush regarding Iran's behavior. At one rally, a supporter of the combat pilot and former Vietnamese prisoner of war, held a large sign declaring: "Bomb Iran, vote McCain!" At the next voting stop, Michigan, the candidate said, "I know how to handle Iran." Without any explanation. That is exactly the tack being taken by the advisors of Sen. Hillary Clinton, the Democratic winner in New Hampshire: They declare that stopping Iran will be one of the most difficult and important tasks facing her, and they issue warnings, but they stop short of going into details of their intended methods of operation. Richard Holbrooke, a potential leading candidate for secretary of state in a Clinton administration, if there is one, has said in the past that "the Iranians are an enormous threat to the United States, to stability in the region and to the State of Israel." However, in a speech in Toronto less than two months ago, he said that he does not expect the Bush administration to attack Iran, listing four reasons: the technical difficulty of attacking scattered sites, the opposition of the U.S. Army, the fear of the consequences of such a move among the Iranian public, and the certainty of a worsening of already-tense relations with the international community. Some of these reasons will not necessarily be valid for the next administration. Mutual admiration Olmert likes to boast of his personal friendship with Bush. The public exchange of mutual praises reached a peak surrounding this week's visit: "A man of vision, a man of power, I believe him" (Bush on Olmert), versus, "Thank God I can conduct political negotiations with him on my side" (Olmert on Bush). But on the two main topics, Iran and the Palestinians, each is shackled by internal political restrictions, and so at best can only try to win his friend over. Just as Olmert acts as a lobbyist on the Iranian issue with Bush, Bush does the same with Olmert on the Palestinian issue. In Jerusalem the president sounded more determined than ever in his willingness to become involved in the political process, even speaking about "pressure" and "nudging." In private talks he was more outspoken and direct, and urged the sides to take action, or run the risk of losing the attention of the president, which will be turned to other issues. Bush spoke disparagingly of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Bush's words at the press conference indicate that he is aware of the Israeli and Palestinian tendency to exhaust each other with mutual complaints about "ongoing issues" instead of getting down to the roots of the conflict. After all, what is the president's tremendous power when compared to Olmert's coalition problems, or the internal problems of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, not to mention Hamas, which controls Gaza? Bush was aware of the fact that even just news of his intended arrival in the region spurred Olmert and Abbas to begin discussions of the "core issues." An experienced political observer this week suggested a conspiracy theory: Olmert is interested in a crisis with Avigdor Lieberman on the subject of the political process, and even in Yisrael Beitenu's angry exit from the coalition. If the right deserts because of the "core issues," it will lock Labor into the Olmert government, whatever the Winograd report says. Ehud Barak will find it difficult to resign and blow up the peace process at this critical moment, and even Meretz will be forced to provide a safety net. We can assume that Bush is more interested and involved than in the past, but continues to sit on the fence. That is his tragedy: By the time two moderate leaders seeking an agreement were found, his political strength had waned. We must also recall that his visit to the Middle East was initially planned as a trip to the Gulf states. Israel and the PA were added only as an afterthought. In a briefing for reporters on Wednesday, Steve Hadley, Bush's national security advisor, tried to explain why a Palestinian state will not be established during Bush's term. Hadley said that it was not a matter of a "deadline," but of a "goal." But the president has long since stopped deluding himself about the possibility of a real state. The building of Palestinian institutions "is going to take some time." The implementation of the road map "is going to take a little time." The practical steps will take "longer than the time required to negotiate the outlines and the details of a Palestinian state." Some of the suspicious types in Washington and Jerusalem are already identifying signs that the Palestinians have decided that it might be better for them to wait for the next administration - one that will be able to implement as well as make plans. These signs are manifested in a toughening of Palestinians demands: full withdrawal, full sovereignty, military capabilities. That does not bode well for the negotiations that are supposed to begin next week between Israel Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Ahmed Qureia (Abu Ala) on the core issues. Victor's tears On Wednesday, Haaretz was still citing an article from The New York Times, to the effect that Bill Clinton's charisma is not working for his wife. But the-man-who-never-stops once again succeeded in astonishing the political world when he performed a miracle similar to those he pulled off in the past. Fifteen years ago he was the New Hampshire "comeback kid." This week it turned out that his marvelous political talent has been transmitted by diffusion to his wife - the "comeback kid" of the year. In an article he wrote, Stanley Greenberg, Bill Clinton's pollster, explained the effect on the voters of the tears shed by the candidate on Monday. If the former president's weakness was acting human, and bordering sometimes on being saccharine, his wife's weakness is her difficulty in presenting a human side to the voters. In her defense it can be said that the latter is a much more complicated maneuver for a woman candidate who does not want to be seen as too weak for the top position she is trying to win. In his remarks this week, Rudy Giuliani - a candidate whose hopes of being sent back into the center of the race have been raised, since it seems that the Republicans have no chance of coming up with a leading candidate before the January 29 Florida primary - mentioned with amusement the concept of "change," which has become a campaign slogan of almost every candidate. Change is an excellent thing, the former mayor of New York said, as along as it is a change for the good, and not for the bad. Afterward he spoke of what America can change - in legislation, leadership and atmosphere - and what it can't change. The war against terror "is not under our control," he said. It was forced upon America. In effect, he believes that the term should be changed: from "the war against terror" to "the terror war on us." But Giuliani's problem, as well as that of the winner in New Hampshire, McCain, is that as time passes there has been a decline in public interest in the Middle East. New Hampshire voters said as they left the polls that the main topic on their agenda is the economy, not the war in Iraq. As long as the slide toward a recession continues - and as long as there are no major shake-ups in the international arena - the Americans will likely concentrate on internal problems: the economy, immigration, health insurance. These are topics that interest them far more than the borders of Israel, the status of Jerusalem or the "right of return" of which Bush spoke this week. Bookmark to del.icio.us   West Bank shooting Kiryat Sefer man, 40, sustains light to moderate wounds when terrorists open fire from passing car. Fighting words Barak vows to expand IDF operations against Qassam fire.   1.   And the pressure is on Kadima, Labour and Meretz ... 05:02  |  Smadar 11/01/08   2.   Who said that Bush was good for nothing? 13:25  |  Natallie Durson 11/01/08   3.   If Bush is serious about peace, Pollard is his roadmap, 1 16:10  |  David Turner 11/01/08   4.   If Bush is serious about peace, Pollard is his roadmap, 2 16:11  |  David Turner 11/01/08

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