Who shall quit and who shall stay? - Haaretz

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Thu., January 17, 2008 Shvat 10, 5768

Israel Time: 23:09 (EST+7)

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Who shall quit and who shall stay?

By Yossi Verter

Tags: Ehud Olmert, Winograd

When opposition leader Likud MK Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu takes a look at the figures in the survey published here, his face will light up. He is still the preferred candidate for prime minister. Under his leadership, the Likud is surging ahead dramatically and has nearly trebled its strength: from 12 seats in the current Knesset to 34 if elections were held now, according to the survey - twice as many as Labor. Not only that, but the right wing as a whole is gathering strength while the center-right has weakened, losing 8 seats, in comparison to the previous survey six weeks ago. The final Winograd Committee report is imminent, the political arena is in a frenzy and the Prime Minister's Office seems so close.

But if Netanyahu probes more deeply, he will realize that the reality revealed in the Haaretz-Dialog survey, carried out under the supervision of Professor Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University's statistics department, indicates a strengthening of the alliance between the two Ehuds - Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak - and creates a covenant of the weak.

Even though Ehud Olmert's overall functioning has improved since the Second Lebanon War, nearly two-thirds of the public is unwilling to accept this improvement. The popular "anti" Olmert attitude that has prevailed since the war seems terminal and irreversible. Ehud Barak, on the contrary, has stepped up. But while his situation as defense minister is reasonable, the opposition toward him as prime minister is sweeping. Moreover, in the current survey, his party would lose six Knesset seats, dropping to 17. In a certain home in Sderot, someone will be saying: I told you so!

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Regarding Labor's possible resignation from the government in the wake of the Winograd report, Minister of National Infrastructure Benjamin Ben-Eliezer says: "Have we lost our minds? What's happening to us? Kadima is celebrating, I have no idea about what. And instead of pointing an accusatory finger at Kadima and the government, the Labor Party is volunteering to shoulder the blame. This is absurd! Do we need to crown Bibi? Is Barak suicidal or something?"

Barak realizes that his presence in Olmert's government is wrecking his chances of ever becoming prime minister again and he understands that only a dramatic, daring and risky move could, perhaps, change things. But he is feeling too weak to initiate such a move and is surrounded by ministers who are discouraging him. And because he is weak, he is afraid to resign from the government. After the trauma of former Labor Party chairman MK Amir Peretz's stint at the Defense Ministry, Barak is widely considered a professional defense minister, who has won the esteem of voters from rival parties as well. But as a candidate for prime minister, he is on the skids. His party is even less popular than he is. His declaration this week that, "when the time comes we will know how to deal with Netanyahu," sounds a bit hollow, under the circumstances.

Only by elections

Sources in the Likud also sounded pessimistic about the chances of Barak quitting the government. The possibility that Barak's leaving will lead to new elections within 10 months is also theoretical. From the moment early elections are called, what will the diplomatic talks look like, once it becomes clear to everyone that the next governments are going to be more right-wing? How will it be possible to prolong this state until the end of 2008?

Deposing Olmert is not realistic, except in the mind of Kadima MK Avigdor Itzchaky. It will be impossible to anoint anyone in Olmert's stead without his agreement. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Transportation and Road Safety Minister Shaul Mofaz and all the rest will have to wait for elections. None of them will be prime minister in this Knesset. Nor will Netanyahu.

Likud members are counting on Minister of Strategic Affairs Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu). He has been prowling around the Knesset in a foul mood, and barely showing up for government meetings. It isn't just the "core issues" in the negotiations with the Palestinians: It's the matter of the conversion of the hundreds of thousands of non-Jewish Russian immigrants, which Lieberman hasn't been able to get through the Knesset because of Shas; it's the matter of changing the system of government, which has been stuck in the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee; it's the couples agreement - a sort of civil marriage - that has evaporated from the political agenda; it's the Religious Affairs Ministry, which Olmert wants to resurrect, contrary to the opinion of Yisrael Beiteinu.

Tourism Minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch (Yisrael Beiteinu) said this week in private conversations that January 2008 - not January 2009 - is the month for quitting the government. Aharonovitch believes Olmert has decided to embrace Barak and advance the peace process, at least verbally, out of a cold political calculation: If it is necessary to throw someone overboard, out of the coalition ship, and the choice is between Barak or Lieberman, unfortunately, it has to be Lieberman. Without him there is still a government and there is still a coalition, even if they are a bit under pressure and shaky. Without Barak and Labor, however, there is no coalition.

The Winograd lifeboat

This week's headlines concerning the Winograd report have been anticipating that it will contain "fire and brimstone," and an "earthquake," and be "very harsh and severe, more so than the first report," "devastating" and the like. With a threshold of expectations like this, any less shocking outcome will ultimately play into the prime minister's hands. He and his spokesmen will be able to grasp on to even a hint of a positive statement in the report, to serve as the basis for a campaign that will depict Olmert in a less negative light.

For example, if the report states that during the past year, after the war, there has been a process by which problems have been corrected and conclusions implemented concerning working procedures and coordination between the government and the defense system, this could constitute a lifeboat. If the flaws were corrected and the work of both the government and the cabinet has improved, then why should Olmert go home? Signs of this type of explanation could already be discerned at the joint press conference with United States President George W. Bush this week. "Israel is in a better place," Olmert said, "with respect to the economy, deterrence and security."

Olmert believes the report won't be too harsh on the final days of the Second Lebanon War. His faithful associates, who will dominate the media immediately after the report's release, will also advance the following argument: How is it possible to investigate diplomatic-security judgment? Is everything really given to investigation, is everything judiciable?

Shula's space

While the prime minister is busy with President Bush's visit, negotiations with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and getting ready for the Winograd Committee report, he has also had to make time for another issue: Where will Shula Zaken sit? His former bureau chief was suspended in the Tax Authority affair, remembered as "the most serious corruption case in the history of the state." During the year Zaken was absent from the Prime Minister's Bureau, her old room, located across from the prime minister's room, was kept for her. When she was permitted to return, the State Prosecutor's Office and the Civil Service Commission issued a "legal instruction" prohibiting Zaken from once again taking up the position of bureau chief. Formally, the investigation of her case has not been completed yet.

According to the "legal instruction," Zaken will not be allowed to return to her room. Maybe the instruction's drafters thought this was too close to Olmert, or too dangerous for democracy, or perhaps they feared that anyone sitting in that room automatically becomes bureau chief. Thus, there were talks between the Prime Minister's Bureau, on the one hand, and the State Prosecutor's Office and the Civil Service Commission on the other, over the fateful question: Where will Shula sit? In the end, the legal staffers, the guardians and protectors of the law decided: Zaken will be moved about six meters down from the prime minister's office. Her new office will be located in a space currently still known as "the aquarium" - the transparent complex where Olmert roams around restlessly among the offices - although it will be located right at the edge of it. She is allowed to participate in meetings with the prime minister, she is allowed to whisper in his ear and she is allowed to review documents - but she is not allowed to sit near his office. Officials at the Prime Minister's Bureau gritted their teeth and did as they were told. Now the law has been kept and a security zone has been created within the bureau.

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1.	verter and olmert	15:18	\|	marcel	11/01/08

2.	OLMERT the stand-in PM	18:36	\|	moshe Israel	11/01/08

3.	Where will Barak be if Shas and Israel Beitunu quit?	19:34	\|	redmike	11/01/08

4.	Haaretz-Dialog survey gives Likud 34 MK	20:10	\|	Genuine Tosefta	11/01/08

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