Situation assessment / What Bush can and can't accomplish - Haaretz

Subscribe to Print Edition

Thu., January 10, 2008 Shvat 3, 5768

Israel Time: 01:59 (EST+7)

web haaretz.com

Back to Homepage

Rosner's Domain

Diplomacy

Defense

Jewish World

Opinion

National

Print Edition

Advertising

Books

Arts & Leisure

Business

Real Estate

Easy Start

Travel

Week's End

Anglo File

Situation assessment / What Bush can and can't accomplish

By Aluf Benn

All it took was for the engines of Air Force One to fire up to produce two major breakthroughs in talks between Israel and the Palestinians. The first was the announcement by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas that they were willing to start talks dealing with the conflict's core issues. The second was Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman's promise not to cause a coalition crisis by withdrawing from the government during Bush's visit.

Both events illustrate Bush's limitations during his second term: He can push Olmert and Abbas to talk about an agreement "defining a Palestinian state," but he has to come to Jerusalem himself to keep Lieberman seated in the government. Still, Lieberman's threat to destabilize Olmert's coalition, like that of Shas Chairman Eli Yishai, limits Israel's maneuverability considerably. Instead of forming one committee on borders, another on the question of Jerusalem and a third to deal with the Palestinian refugees, Israel insisted that all three issues be placed under the authority of a special committee headed by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and her Palestinian counterpart, former PA prime minister Ahmed Qureia. This strategy will allow Olmert to tell Lieberman that the issue of dividing Jerusalem has not yet been raised.

	Advertisement

Bush's first visit to Israel and the Palestinian Authority comes at a time when neither the security nor the political winds are blowing in his favor. The "spirit of Annapolis" is eroding fast, and the parties have plunged into a series of mutual recriminations and stonewalling. Encouraged by their success in embarrassing Israel over building in the settlements, the Palestinians have launched a new campaign complaining about Israel Defense Forces operations in the West Bank. The U.S. accepted the Palestinian claim that Israeli incursions into Nablus undermine PA forces in the city.

Gaza presents a much more complicated issue for Bush. The fighting there is escalating, and the U.S. has no real answer to Hamas's continued arms smuggling or the firing of Qassam rockets at Israel. Until a real solution is found to the rocket fire on the western Negev, Israel cannot withdraw from the West Bank, since this would bring Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Ben-Gurion International Airport into rocket range. If Bush wants progress in the West Bank, he had better focus on finding a solution for Gaza first.

Olmert will talk to Bush about four key issues: moving the talks with the Palestinians forward, ensuring that Israel's security needs are met in any future West Bank settlement; the American intelligence assessment that Iran has abandoned its nuclear arms program; and a strategic analysis of Israel's security situation. But one should not expect any major concessions by the United States: No preliminary discussions were held before the visit, and Bush's itinerary makes any gestures to Israel difficult. At the conclusion of the Israeli leg of his tour, Bush is slated to visit Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. If he makes promises to Olmert in Jerusalem, he will have to make similar promises to Arab leaders.

That is why Bush's current visit is aimed at creating a positive atmosphere and showing presidential involvement in the peace process. Israel will have to wait for Bush's next visit, scheduled to coincide with its 60th anniversary, to receive the president's "going-away present."

Bookmark to del.icio.us


	'Bush go home'
	Israeli Arab parties join leftist protests against the Bush visit.


	Peace overture
	Syria says it isn't seeking a military solution with Israel.

Today Online


	Bush in Israel: West Bank outposts 'have got to go'
	Responses: 179


	Palestinians: IDF strike kills two civilians in northern Gaza Strip
	Responses: 131


	Bradley Burston: Mr. Bush, you were born to make peace
	Responses: 103


	Early warning system fails to spot Katyusha strike in North
	Responses: 83


	Jewish group asks AG to halt dig in J'lem Muslim Quarter
	Responses: 60

More Headlines
00:23 Bush in Israel: Iran poses threat to world peace


22:14 Israeli Arab parties join leftist protests against Bush visit


23:37 IDF strikes kill two militants in separate Gaza Strip incidents


01:05 57 MKs vow to vote against evacuation-compensation bill


20:50 Coming soon to a Spanish theater: Anne Frank the musical


23:02 Syria says it's not seeking military solution with Israel


15:25 ANALYSIS: Bush can spur peace talks, but can't solve Gaza issue


17:22 Bush quizzes Shas chief Yishai over threat to quit government


21:36 Police recommend indicting Minister Yaakov Edri for breach of trust