Peace Index: December 2007 / Olmert should resign - even if Winograd doesn't say so - Haaretz

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Peace Index: December 2007 / Olmert should resign - even if Winograd doesn't say so

By Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann

Tags: Winograd, Egypt, Qassams

The rise in targeted killings of the Qassam-firers and their dispatchers enjoys very wide support in the Israeli Jewish public, despite the responsible organizations vowing to respond with terror attacks inside Israel. A considerable majority also thinks Israel should not seek an understanding with Hamas where the Qassam fire would be stopped in return for ending the targeted killings and IDF operations in the Gaza Strip. Likewise, an overwhelming majority rejects the Egyptian claim that they are doing their best to prevent weapons smuggling and infiltration into Gaza, and also backs Minister Tzipi Livni's public statement that the Egyptians are not doing enough to prevent the smuggling and infiltration despite the Egyptians' harsh reactions to her words.

Attitudes toward the Mahmoud Abbas-headed Palestinian Authority seem to be somewhat different: A slim majority thinks Israel should fulfill its undertakings at the Annapolis conference on freezing the settlements and removing the illegal outposts. Moreover, though it does not mean the public justifies the killing of the two Israeli young men in the Hebron area by Palestinian security officers, a clear majority says Israelis should not enter Area B for purposes such as hiking. In a similar spirit, on the question of whether Israel should moderate its criteria for releasing terrorists so as to increase the chances of a deal where Gilad Shalit would be freed, a majority today says yes.

With the Winograd Commission soon to publish its final report, the prevailing view is that if it includes harsh criticism of the prime minister's functioning during the Lebanon war, he should resign from his post even if the commission does not make personal recommendations. Yet, despite all the problems Israel faces and the fact that the media often gives the impression of a public that is in a deep depression, the survey results show that with 2007 ending, an overwhelming majority views it as a very good or moderately good year on a personal level, and is even more optimistic in this regard about the new secular year. On the Israeli-national level, however, the opinions about the past year are almost evenly split, though here too there is widespread optimism about 2008. A similar pattern of divided assessments about the past year and optimism about the new year also emerges on the international level.

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Most suspect Egypt

An overwhelming majority of 81 percent of the Jewish public, compared to a minority of 11.5 percent, currently support or strongly support escalating the policy of targeted killings of those who fire Qassams or their dispatchers.

This is despite the responsible organizations' threat to react to the assassinations with terror attacks. Some 61 percent (vs. 31.5 percent) also oppose Israel reaching understandings with Hamas on stopping the rocket fire in return for stopping the targeted killings and military operations in Gaza. A segmentation by Knesset voting reveals that a majority of the voters for all the Jewish parties favor continuing the targeted killings, though among Meretz voters the majority is much smaller, as is the opposition to reaching understandings with Hamas.

On the Gaza front, 76 percent of the entire Jewish public do not believe the Egyptians' claim that they are making concerted efforts to prevent weapons smuggling and infiltration. It is no surprise, then, that 61 percent (vs. 28 percent) think the foreign minister was right to publicly accuse Egypt of failing to prevent the smuggling and infiltration, notwithstanding the Egyptians' harsh reactions to her statement.

Compared to this hardline stance regarding Hamas and Gaza, the attitude toward the Abbas-headed PA seems less hostile. A small majority of 51 percent (vs. 43 percent) of the Jewish public think Israel should uphold its undertakings at the Annapolis Summit on a settlement freeze, and a slightly larger majority of 53 percent (vs. 37 percent) think it should meet its obligations to the PA on evacuating the illegal outposts.

Furthermore, there is considerable recognition of the Palestinians' rights to the territories that were transferred to the PA in the Oslo framework. We asked the following question: In the most recent terror attack in Hebron, two young men from Kiryat Arba who were hiking in the territory defined as B, that is, under Palestinian civilian rule and Israeli security control - were killed. With which of these two opinions do you agree more: that Israel should insist on ensuring that its citizens be able to move around safely in the territories under Palestinian rule; or from the moment these territories were transferred to the Palestinians, Israelis should have had nothing further to do with them.

Fifty-seven percent chose the view that Israelis have no further business in areas under Palestinian rule, with only 36 percent favoring the view that Israel should insist on ensuring that Israelis be able to move around safely in these areas. A majority - 51 percent - also believes Israel should moderate the criteria for determining which terrorists can be released in a deal to free Gilad Shalit, with only 36 percent opposing this.

As for domestic issues, it appears that the prime minister's public standing continues to be extremely weak. Soon the Winograd Committee will be presenting its final report. We asked: If the report includes harsh criticism of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's functioning during the Second Lebanon War, would you support or oppose a demand that he resign from his post, even if the committee does not make personal recommendations?

Sixty-six percent responded that they would want Olmert to resign, with only 20 percent saying they would not. The demand that he resign is, unsurprisingly, lowest among Kadima voters, though even among them a clear majority (55 percents vs. 34 percent) wants him to step down.

Finally, last year Israel faced some difficult problems both in the foreign/ defense and domestic spheres - a growth in economic gaps and in poverty, crises in the education and higher education systems, and so on.

Indeed, the picture that arises from the media is of a public sunk in depression. Yet the survey data, which of course are based on a national sample that represents the adult population of Israel, offer a different picture. Seventy-five percent (vs. 19 percent) said that on the personal level, the past year was very good or good.

On the Israeli-national level the opinions are split down the middle: 44 percent think it was a very good or good year while 45 percent assess 2007 as bad or very bad.

And on the international level there is again a split: 42 percent rate it as good or very good and a similar percentage as bad or very bad. Yet, when it comes to expectations for the coming year on all three levels, optimism trumps pessimism: On the personal level, 78 percent foresee a good or very good year; on the national-Israeli level, 60 percent, and on the international level, 56 percent.

A cross-tabulation by socio-demographic attributes shows that on the personal level, men had a slightly better year than women, young people than older people and ultra-Orthodox more than other people.

The highest education groups assess 2007 as good or very good for them more than do the low education groups, and a segmentation by income reveals that those of medium income in fact see 2007 as better than those with a very low or very high income.

On the national and international levels the disparities between the groups are not systematic, and the further one gets from the personal level - as expected - the higher the rate of those who do not know.

Peace indexes:

General Peace Index: entire sample - 49.4; Jewish sample - 46.5

Oslo Index: entire sample - 34.7; Jewish sample - 31.4

Negotiation Index: entire sample - 49.7; Jewish sample - 47.0

The Peace Index Project is conducted at the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann. The telephone interviews were conducted by the B. I. Cohen Institute of Tel Aviv University on January 1-2, 2008, and included 595 interviewees who represent the adult Jewish and Arab population of Israel (including the territories and the kibbutzim). The sampling error for a sample of this size is 4.5 percent.

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