Subscribe to Print Edition | Sun., May 25, 2008 Iyyar 20, 5768 | | Israel Time: 06:18 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Advertising Books Peres Conference Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File

Last update - 18:01 06/01/2008 Neither Clinton nor Romney can afford to lose in New Hampshire By Shmuel Rosner Tags: New Hampshire primaries, U.S.  DES MOINES, Iowa - It's been two and a half days since the bald janitor at Valley High School cleaned up the garbage left by hundreds of participants in the caucus held here, a vote that shook the foundation of U.S. politics. At the Valley caucus, 166 votes went to Barack Obama, 104 to Hillary Clinton, 86 to John Edwards and 69 to Bill Richardson. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden's groups did not make the cut. A few hours later, the candidates announced they were pulling out of the race. Biden and Dodd learned a valuable lesson: Expertise in foreign policy can only take you so far. In their absence, the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination is empty of such specialists. Richardson lacks judgment and Clinton, Obama and Edwards lack Dodd and Biden's experience. But the latter two do not have Obama's charisma that brings in the voters. Advertisement He meticulously delivered his victory speech on Thursday. If he survives the long race ahead of him and becomes president, it will be a speech to remember. The Des Moines airport on Friday was filled with people either rushing home (those who lost in the caucuses) and those heading for the next leg in New Hampshire, scheduled to take place on Tuesday. Possible scenarios are numerous and complicated, but the simple truth is that the two favorites to win on Friday must now win in New Hampshire. Clinton must win and Romney must win. If they lose again there is a real danger of jeopardizing their campaigns. Both led in polls last week, but Clinton and Romney are playing at a hard game. In the televised debate on Saturday they faced a dilemma whether to attack and criticize or implement what they learned in Iowa: Voters prefer calm, kind candidates. Iowans, after all, rejected Clinton's image and Edwards' populist stance, and voted for Obama, the man who suggested that we forget about classifying states as either red or blue. They voted in favor of Huckabee's pleasant sense of humor and his message of conservatism. Huckabee will not win in New Hampshire; there are not enough Evangelicals there. Perhaps his victory in Iowa will turn out to be an isolated event just like televangelist Pat Robertson's achievement in the 1988 caucuses, in which he came in second after Bob Dole. Making predictions is difficult but one must take into account that Huckabee may be able to surprise again. Either way, Huckabee managed to rock the Republican boat ideologically and politically in a way that could help John McCain beat Romney decisively. In turn, such a scenario could boost Rudy Giuliani's campaign in January or early February if no candidate with a clear lead emerges. Most notable about Romney and Edwards' concession speeches was their cumbersome attempt to attribute some of Obama and Huckabee's success to themselves. "Didn't we tell you all along that people wanted a change?" they said. If Clinton fails again in New Hampshire it may turn out that the major candidates are Obama and Edwards. If she manages to stay in the race, the days of Edwards' campaign are numbered and his political career will be over. In the Depression-era election of 1932, Senator Thomas Gore sent a short, reassuring message to his friend Franklin Delano Roosevelt. "Even if every Democrat in Iowa were thrown in jail", FDR will still win in Hoover's home state, Gore wrote. Herbert Hoover, who many accused of failing to properly respond to the financial crisis, was the only president ever born in Iowa and its pride and joy when he was elected. But no one can prevent changes, and Roosevelt won in Iowa. Thus, the Democratic Party attracted more voters to the caucuses than ever. Some 180 new Democrats signed up for the Valley High School vote; people who previously voted for Republicans or independents now favored Obama. Obama now hopes to attract independent voters in New Hampshire, where polls show their numbers are particularly great. He also seeks new voters. To Hillary Clinton, New Hampshire will be a considerable challenge. Related articles: After Iowa: Is there room for both McCain and Giuliani? Obama and Huckabee widen their leads in Iowa, but anything could happen Here come the tribal leaders Bookmark to del.icio.us   Jet error Israeli warplanes come close to shooting down Tony Blair's plane. Rehab (live) Report: Singer Amy Winehouse is to undergo drug rehab in Israel.   1.   Wow, Haaretz doesn`t know wtf it`s talking about 15:28  |  POP 06/01/08   2.   Who is best 4 Israel? 16:17  |  Questionmark 06/01/08   3.   Lesson 101 on American Politics 16:55  |  Brod 06/01/08   4.   Obama, the snake in the grass 18:05  |  Americana 06/01/08   5.   #2 Questionmark: Huckabee quote from your link 20:01  |  Israel_is_Done 06/01/08   6.   HUCKABEE "GREATEST" FRIEND OF ISRAEL = BEST`N`ONLY OPTION 20:13  |  David P 06/01/08   7.   All those who measure gravity of terrorist threat support Huckabe 21:06  |  Mawloud Ould Daddah 06/01/08   8.   #101 Brod 21:16  |  Boycott 06/01/08   9.   Who is best 4 Israel? 22:30  |  Answermark 06/01/08   10.   #4 Americana - and Zionist. 23:30  |  Maureen Ann 06/01/08   11.   # Brod 23:42  |  Labhras 06/01/08   12.   OBAMA TO WIN IN 2008!!!! 01:35  |  Promise 07/01/08   13.   David P. - I LOVE Santa Cruz, went to school there but...! 01:39  |  Banana Slug 07/01/08   14.   HILLARY VS HUCKABEE 06:38  |  indrajaya 07/01/08   15.   i agree with Indrajaya??? (crying) 16:46  |  dyinglikeflies 07/01/08   16.   # 15, DYINGLIKEFLIES 19:25  |  indrajaya 07/01/08   17.   Clinton and Romney 23:41  |  Shimon Rubenstein 07/01/08   18.   Mormon`s and Jews should run America!! 22:21  |  Issaac 24/05/08

Read & React Bradley Burston: The Palestinians' time is running out Responses: 459 West backs Lebanese gov't capitulation to Hezbollah Responses: 216 Obama promises 'unshakable commitment' to Israel if elected Responses: 230 Hamas: Olmert too weak to negotiate peace agreement with Syria Responses: 215 McCain rejects pastor's support after 'God sent Hitler' jibe Responses: 124 Rosner's Domain Explaining Hagee's Holocaust remarks Poll: Peace between Israel & Syria? Should American Jews Embrace Living Double Lives? Rosner's Guests: can "decisive victory" against guerilla achieved? Blame the Israel Lobby for Clinton's loss? (WTR) More Headlines 05:11 Law enforcement source: Olmert's indictment is just a matter of time 05:16 ANALYSIS / Olmert's last police interview was tailormade for him 05:21 ANALYSIS: Can Syria break its Iranian bear hug? 01:48 Syria sends minister to Iran after shock revelation of Israel talks 01:06 Israel denies entry to high-profile critic Norman Finkelstein 03:00 Spanish doctors, Israeli reality 02:07 Israel places 9th in 2008 Eurovision Song Contest; Russia wins 01:16 Israeli warplanes almost shoot down Tony Blair's plane 03:38 Report: Singer Amy Winehouse to undergo drug rehab in Israel 02:11 'Israeli Big Lebowski' captures top student prize at Cannes 05:07 Critic and journalist Adam Baruch passes away at age 63 Previous Editions Select Day 23 may 22 may 21 may 20 may 19 may 18 may 16 may 15 may 14 may 13 may 12 may 11 may

Special Offers Advertisement Dead Sea Products Buy Dead Sea mineral skin care and beauty products. Coupon code Haaretz for 10% off. Your vacation starts here Israel Travel Center Guaranteed Lowest Rates Istudy Learn Hebrew in 3 months The Terraces Your Ultimate Coastal Address On Nitza Boulevard, North Netanya Together Celebrating Israel's 60th The Jewish Agency and You - together making history Pardes Institute Summer Sessions http://www.pardes.org.il/ Free the Palestinians from: Corrupt Kleptocracy, Tyrannical Theocracy, Abysmal Anarchy Fattal Hotel Chain Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel. ISRAEL BONDS Build Israel Israel bonds - a multi-purpose way to celebrate Israel's 60th Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

Real Estate in Israel

Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved