Subscribe to Print Edition | Tue., January 08, 2008 Shvat 1, 5768 | | Israel Time: 09:36 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Advertising Books Arts & Leisure Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File Magazine

Last update - 18:01 06/01/2008 Neither Clinton nor Romney can afford to lose in New Hampshire By Shmuel Rosner Tags: New Hampshire primaries, U.S.  DES MOINES, Iowa - It's been two and a half days since the bald janitor at Valley High School cleaned up the garbage left by hundreds of participants in the caucus held here, a vote that shook the foundation of U.S. politics. At the Valley caucus, 166 votes went to Barack Obama, 104 to Hillary Clinton, 86 to John Edwards and 69 to Bill Richardson. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden's groups did not make the cut. A few hours later, the candidates announced they were pulling out of the race. Biden and Dodd learned a valuable lesson: Expertise in foreign policy can only take you so far. In their absence, the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination is empty of such specialists. Richardson lacks judgment and Clinton, Obama and Edwards lack Dodd and Biden's experience. But the latter two do not have Obama's charisma that brings in the voters. Advertisement He meticulously delivered his victory speech on Thursday. If he survives the long race ahead of him and becomes president, it will be a speech to remember. The Des Moines airport on Friday was filled with people either rushing home (those who lost in the caucuses) and those heading for the next leg in New Hampshire, scheduled to take place on Tuesday. Possible scenarios are numerous and complicated, but the simple truth is that the two favorites to win on Friday must now win in New Hampshire. Clinton must win and Romney must win. If they lose again there is a real danger of jeopardizing their campaigns. Both led in polls last week, but Clinton and Romney are playing at a hard game. In the televised debate on Saturday they faced a dilemma whether to attack and criticize or implement what they learned in Iowa: Voters prefer calm, kind candidates. Iowans, after all, rejected Clinton's image and Edwards' populist stance, and voted for Obama, the man who suggested that we forget about classifying states as either red or blue. They voted in favor of Huckabee's pleasant sense of humor and his message of conservatism. Huckabee will not win in New Hampshire; there are not enough Evangelicals there. Perhaps his victory in Iowa will turn out to be an isolated event just like televangelist Pat Robertson's achievement in the 1988 caucuses, in which he came in second after Bob Dole. Making predictions is difficult but one must take into account that Huckabee may be able to surprise again. Either way, Huckabee managed to rock the Republican boat ideologically and politically in a way that could help John McCain beat Romney decisively. In turn, such a scenario could boost Rudy Giuliani's campaign in January or early February if no candidate with a clear lead emerges. Most notable about Romney and Edwards' concession speeches was their cumbersome attempt to attribute some of Obama and Huckabee's success to themselves. "Didn't we tell you all along that people wanted a change?" they said. If Clinton fails again in New Hampshire it may turn out that the major candidates are Obama and Edwards. If she manages to stay in the race, the days of Edwards' campaign are numbered and his political career will be over. In the Depression-era election of 1932, Senator Thomas Gore sent a short, reassuring message to his friend Franklin Delano Roosevelt. "Even if every Democrat in Iowa were thrown in jail", FDR will still win in Hoover's home state, Gore wrote. Herbert Hoover, who many accused of failing to properly respond to the financial crisis, was the only president ever born in Iowa and its pride and joy when he was elected. But no one can prevent changes, and Roosevelt won in Iowa. Thus, the Democratic Party attracted more voters to the caucuses than ever. Some 180 new Democrats signed up for the Valley High School vote; people who previously voted for Republicans or independents now favored Obama. Obama now hopes to attract independent voters in New Hampshire, where polls show their numbers are particularly great. He also seeks new voters. To Hillary Clinton, New Hampshire will be a considerable challenge. Related articles: After Iowa: Is there room for both McCain and Giuliani? Obama and Huckabee widen their leads in Iowa, but anything could happen Here come the tribal leaders Bookmark to del.icio.us   Finkelstein in Lebanon A vocal U.S. critic of Israel met Monday with a senior Hezbollah official. Holocaustland 2007 sees record number of visitors at Auschwitz extermination camp.   1.   Wow, Haaretz doesn`t know wtf it`s talking about 15:28  |  POP 06/01/08   2.   Who is best 4 Israel? 16:17  |  Questionmark 06/01/08   3.   Lesson 101 on American Politics 16:55  |  Brod 06/01/08   4.   Obama, the snake in the grass 18:05  |  Americana 06/01/08   5.   #2 Questionmark: Huckabee quote from your link 20:01  |  Israel_is_Done 06/01/08   6.   HUCKABEE "GREATEST" FRIEND OF ISRAEL = BEST`N`ONLY OPTION 20:13  |  David P 06/01/08   7.   All those who measure gravity of terrorist threat support Huckabe 21:06  |  Mawloud Ould Daddah 06/01/08   8.   #101 Brod 21:16  |  Boycott 06/01/08   9.   Who is best 4 Israel? 22:30  |  Answermark 06/01/08   10.   #4 Americana - and Zionist. 23:30  |  Maureen Ann 06/01/08   11.   # Brod 23:42  |  Labhras 06/01/08   12.   OBAMA TO WIN IN 2008!!!! 01:35  |  Promise 07/01/08   13.   David P. - I LOVE Santa Cruz, went to school there but...! 01:39  |  Banana Slug 07/01/08   14.   HILLARY VS HUCKABEE 06:38  |  indrajaya 07/01/08   15.   i agree with Indrajaya??? (crying) 16:46  |  dyinglikeflies 07/01/08   16.   # 15, DYINGLIKEFLIES 19:25  |  indrajaya 07/01/08   17.   Clinton and Romney 23:41  |  Shimon Rubenstein 07/01/08

Today Online Olmert to assure Bush he will dismantle illegal outposts Responses: 137 Shmuel Rosner: Ron Paul and an Israel without U.S. aid Responses: 184 Akiva Eldar: Settlements are an obstacle to Zionism Responses: 128 Nadav Shragai: Mr. President, would you divide New York? Responses: 99 U.S. comes within seconds of opening fire on Iranian boats Responses: 138 Rosner's Domain Rosner's Guest: Futurizing Judaism, redefining Zionism Ron Paul: Israel can get by without U.S. aid Biden & Dodd: Expertise in foreign policy can only take you so far Is there room for both McCain and Giuliani? The Judaism of Alicia Silverstone (WTR) More Headlines 09:29 Rocket hits house near border with Lebanon 09:15 Israel botched chance to free abducted soldiers at start of war 08:12 Olmert and Abbas to seal deal on teams to tackle core issues 08:35 Israeli Arab leaders slam boycott of visiting Jewish donors 09:31 Construction to start in area Palestinians want for corridor 09:26 Security arrangements for Bush visit to cost Israel $25,000 an hour 06:21 Police gear up to stop rabbis from praying on Temple Mount 09:27 Interior Ministry grants work permits to one hundred Eritrean refugees 09:28 Reservists, bereaved parents urge Barak to leave government Previous Editions Select Day 07 jan 06 jan 04 jan 03 jan 02 jan 01 jan 31 dec 30 dec 28 dec 27 dec 26 dec 25 dec

Special Offers Advertisement FAREWELL ISRAEL New Film The Coming War for Islamic Revival - View Movie Trailer Inbal Jerusalem Hotel Unbeatable rates at the Finest hotel in Jerusalem Long-term Israel programs MASA is your gateway. More programs. More grants. Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations Dead Sea Salt Beauty and skin care from the Dead Sea. Coupon code HAARETZ for 10% off! AMERICANS ONE MONTH LEFT US citizen in Israel beat online Democrats-Abroad Presidential Primary deadline.

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved