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Sapper clearing Katyusha rocket that hit northern Ashkelon on Thursday. (Limor Edrey)
Last update - 06:24 04/01/2008
Analysis: Katyusha in Ashkelon / The other side is cautious too
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Gaza, Hamas, Katyusha 

The Katyusha rocket that hit the northern part of Ashkelon Thursday does not herald a new situation in the fighting on the Gaza border. Katyushas and even enhanced Qassam rockets have landed in Ashkelon before. The only difference is that this one landed a few hundred meters farther north.

But that, of course, is not the whole story. A rocket hitting Ashkelon's northern edge means that another several thousand people are suddenly in rocket range of Gaza. In financial terms, this is a significant change, if one assumes that Ashkelon will demand the same defensive package priced at NIS 310 million for the much smaller Sderot.

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he Palestinians who launched Thursday's rocket know this very well. That was the message they intended to send Israel - that they are capable of hurting it. They also sought to respond to Israeli attacks that have killed dozens of Palestinians in the last month, most of them terrorists.

Though television cameras hastened to record the (justifiably) worried reactions of Ashkelon residents, the city fathers are trying to play down the incident and return to normalcy. But it is clear that the threat to Ashkelon is now greater than had previously been thought.

If they so desire, Palestinian groups are now capable of bombarding Ashkelon regularly, and with an ample number of rockets. They have enough Katyushas and enhanced Qassams, the rockets can be stored for relatively long periods, and the ruins of the former settlements in northern Gaza provide a launching ground from which the rockets can reach northern Ashkelon.

The only reason this has not yet happened is that Hamas does not want a major clash with Israel. Most rockets hitting Ashkelon are launched by Islamic Jihad, albeit with Hamas' consent. If Hamas decides to attack, it will not make do with a lone Katyusha.

Hamas is still mulling a short-term cease-fire with Israel. It seems that progress has recently occurred in the parties' indirect negotiations, and until such an agreement is reached (or definitively not reached), both Hamas and the Israel Defense Forces will keep the fighting on a relatively low flame.

Israel's response to Thursday's Katyusha attack was nothing out of the ordinary: It bombed a few Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets. It is far from declaring war on Gaza. The timing is poor - at the height of winter and on the eve of U.S. President George W. Bush's visit and publication of the Winograd Report on the Second Lebanon War. And in any case, Israeli leaders are doubtful that any real military gains can be made against Hamas right now.

But before complaining about Israel's lack of response to the rocket fire, it is worth remembering the following: The biggest price of the recent low-intensity warfare is being paid by the terrorists, who are being killed by the dozen. Thus it is not just Israel that is exercising restraint. So is Hamas.



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      1.   Good 06:00  |  Colin Wright 04/01/08
      2.   I Like That!!! 06:04  |  Eli 04/01/08
      3.   "Peaceful Pals"send peace message by widening the conflict 06:42  |  PETER SM 04/01/08
      4.   Return Katyushas where they came from 06:57  |  Judith 04/01/08
      5.   reasoning with the devil 07:09  |  Shmuelshachor 04/01/08
      6.   Thank you DISENGAGMENT/HITNATKUT IDIOTS..... 07:12  |  amir 04/01/08
      7.   Nice Piece of Propaganda 07:22  |  Ben Israel 04/01/08
      8.   Colin Wright_Lots Of Maybe`s. Tough To Always Be On The Losing 07:30  |  Eli 04/01/08
      9.   Colin you should read #2 before you start celebrating 07:33  |  Dan 04/01/08
      10.   The best way to stop Katyusha rockets and other terrorist attacks 07:51  |  Marwan مروان خوري 04/01/08
      11.   we are spinning again 08:16  |  Leona 04/01/08
      12.   KATYUSHAS IN ASHKELON 08:18  |  MICHAEL 04/01/08
      13.   PLace Not Political Considerations Above the Fight Against Terror 08:31  |  Joseph E . 04/01/08
      14.   Excuse for doing nothing 08:40  |  Israeli citizen 04/01/08
      15.   Fancy life in the IDF, Marwan ? # 4 10:00  |  Clickfool 04/01/08
      16.   Michael in Holon, living a dream 10:45  |  Philip 04/01/08
      17.   Joseph E. - Israel was not created on an empty piece of land 10:49  |  Philip 04/01/08
      18.   PETER SM 10:51  |  Philip 04/01/08
      19.   Hey, Clickfool... 10:58  |  Walter 04/01/08
      20.   amos harel and hamas restraint 11:13  |  harzion 04/01/08
      21.   clickfool laughs at israeli losses 11:16  |  brighton rock 04/01/08
      22.   Israelis are bloodthirsty barbarians 11:20  |  Mickey SouthLebanon 04/01/08
      23.   so ashkelon is now in range and it will cost us 11:21  |  harzion 04/01/08
      24.   #20-22, harzion 12:00  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/01/08
      25.   Philip the Jews are the natives 12:21  |  Iz Ray Leigh 04/01/08
      26.   Philip in Han yunis 12:23  |  Iz Ray Leigh 04/01/08
      27.   Mickeysouthlebanon 12:26  |  Iz Ray Leigh 04/01/08
      28.   Harzion, #20-22, so wrong 12:38  |  Philip 04/01/08
      29.   Iz Ray Whatever 12:41  |  Philip 04/01/08
      30.   Iz Ray LEight, Lebanon 12:44  |  Philip 04/01/08
      31.   Interesting admission by the author. 12:45  |  Johnboy 04/01/08
      32.   Hamas wants a Cease Fire, it is because they are losing 12:58  |  Efox 04/01/08
      33.   #15 the clucking fool boris is back at the front 13:02  |  victor hardman 04/01/08
      34.   #1 Colin 13:22  |  Nik "BANNED" Miller 04/01/08
      35.   Ashkelon used to be a Palestinian town! 13:28  |  lakshmi 04/01/08
      36.   golani 13:38  |  ariel 04/01/08
      37.   Its time to clean the vermin out of Gaza! 13:43  |  izak 04/01/08
      38.   so.... 13:46  |  Maxine 04/01/08
      39.   katyushas in ashkelon 13:54  |  bill gordon 04/01/08
      40.   There is an Existential War Going On ! 13:58  |  GHOST OF GUSH KATIF 04/01/08
      41.   #18 Phillip another continual Pal loser 14:12  |  Petra 04/01/08
      42.   #31 Tough shit lakky 14:19  |  Petra 04/01/08
      43.   #31lakshmi: Ashkelon used to be a Palestinian town!So what? 14:26  |  Palestine my love 04/01/08
      44.   #28 EFox your title says it all, thanks 14:26  |  Petra 04/01/08
      45.   Djakarta is a Palestinian city; will soon come to take what is 14:27  |  Hmar 04/01/08
      46.   Philip to Peter 14:32  |  Farfur 04/01/08
      47.   # 22 Micket in s. lebanon 14:36  |  Petra 04/01/08
      48.   Easy answer to this is to reoccupy, annex N. Gaza 14:37  |  Dr. L. Brnd 04/01/08
      49.   # 30 Nick "banned` miller Great response! 14:37  |  Petra 04/01/08
      50.   It is high time, very high time the world would ask Egypt about 14:47  |  Nahum 04/01/08
      51.   Philip again 14:51  |  no kidding 04/01/08
      52.   A reminder shot 14:53  |  Tosefta 04/01/08
      53.   peter sm 3 14:56  |  realism 04/01/08
      54.   10 Yes Marwan, keep them off balance and keep targeting 14:58  |  The Equalizer 04/01/08
      55.   #22 any does Lebanaon treat Palestininians like human beings ? 14:58  |  Henryk 04/01/08
      56.   Tighten The Screws 15:01  |  Jeff Northridge 04/01/08
      57.   For Paul Victor Hardman Harris # 29 15:03  |  Clickfool 04/01/08
      58.   #31 Wrong - Ashkelon a Jewish town 15:06  |  Henryk 04/01/08
      59.   the ruins of the former settlements in northern Gaza provide a la 15:08  |  Burned Liberal 04/01/08
      60.   The Arab World Lives in the 8th Century 15:20  |  guy 04/01/08
      61.   mickey and misguided blame 15:21  |  natan 04/01/08
      62.   # 31 lakshmi "Ashkelon used to be a Palestinian town!" - true - 15:25  |  17 04/01/08
      63.   #30 - "Terror scum" 15:31  |  Philip 04/01/08
      64.   All Gaza is in range 15:52  |  Boris 04/01/08
      65.   Mickey of south Lebanon....you should talk 15:56  |  Lynn 04/01/08
      66.   Clickfool, Fancy An Evening With The "Resistance"? 15:56  |  Ruth 04/01/08
      67.   @22, mickey, gazans should work to support their families 15:57  |  vladimir 04/01/08
      68.   Sderot yesterday, Ashkelon today, Tel-Aviv tomorrow 15:57  |  Boris 04/01/08
      69.   # 31 lakshmi...now it isn`t 15:58  |  Lynn 04/01/08
      70.   lakshmi and geography 16:06  |  natan 04/01/08
      71.