Subscribe to Print Edition | Tue., January 08, 2008 Shvat 1, 5768 | | Israel Time: 09:28 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
  Back to Homepage
Rosner's Domain
Diplomacy
Defense Jewish World Opinion National
Print Edition
Advertising
Books Arts & Leisure Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File Magazine
Last update - 18:52 02/01/2008
Pre-Iowa Israel Factor: We know Clinton, we want Clinton
By Shmuel Rosner
Tags: U.S. presidential election 

This is what we did:

First, we sent the panel the table from our first survey, almost 15 months ago (and here is the analysis for this survey).

Then we asked questions about this table, and about the race, as it enters a new phase.

These are the two tables, followed by some analysis.

First table is from mid-September 2006 (in black are the weighed averages as calculated by Prof. Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University):



The second table is the one with questions answered this week by the panel. The numbers in parentheses signify the number of panelists who gave that response:



Now, analysis of the panel's responses:

1. On just three questions is there something close to a consensus: The panel feels that it doesn't yet know enough about Huckabee, and it also feels that it is familiar enough with Clinton. They are also certain that Clinton is the better Democratic candidate for Israel.

2. On Clinton, there's no surprise - she placed second in our latest general Israel Factor ranking.

With Huckabee, however, the story is more interesting. Last week, the panel was quite harsh with him after reading the Iran chapter in his Foreign Affairs article. Based on what we see in this week's survey, I think it is fair to say that the panel is far from writing him off as far as "good for Israel" is concerned. They just don't know.

3. That is the reason that we couldn't get a real answer to the question about the preferred Republican candidate in Iowa. The panelists know that, according to the polls, in this state it is basically Huckabee vs. Romney. But only two of them felt that they could mention Huckabee as the candidate they'd go for, and three of them mentioned McCain, who's in a position to have a fairly strong showing in Iowa (his chances of winning, though, don't seem very promising).

Two panelists did choose Huckabee, but the story that emerged from this question is Romney: He was not mentioned by any of the panelists, meaning they would rather not choose than choose him. This could also be seen as consensus, but one might suspect that the mention of Huckabee above Romney was a calculated move by those assuming that a strong Huckabee showing in Iowa is better for McCain.

4. On the other hand, Romney was the only candidate mentioned by more than one panelist when we asked them to take a second look at the table from September 2006, and mention the candidate that they felt had not been fairly evaluated. Two panelists thought that he had been treated harshly. Even so, those two did not want a Romney win in Iowa.

5. Interestingly, Gingrich was mentioned by two panelists as the candidate who got too much credit in our early ranking (he came third). But three panelists felt that he was the one missing from this race. More than what that says about Gingrich, it tells you something about the varying political preferences of the panel members (we do keep telling you that the panel is politically balanced!).

6. The two that mentioned Biden as the one for whom they feel the average monthly results differ most greatly from their personal opinion believe he gets too much credit from the panel, not too little.

7. The question about candidates who became more relevant as the year progressed is an interesting one. Three panelists mentioned McCain, three mentioned Obama (Giuliani and Biden were the other two names). Two of those who think that McCain is more relevant today are also those who think Gingrich is missing from this race. These are also the panelists who do not like Biden. I think the pattern is quite clear
Bookmark to del.icio.us  
 
Finkelstein in Lebanon
A vocal U.S. critic of Israel met Monday with a senior Hezbollah official.
Holocaustland
2007 sees record number of visitors at Auschwitz extermination camp.
<
  1.   Definitions 19:52  |  Contrary Cuss 02/01/08
  2.   Clinton: Good for Israel = Bad for the U.S. 20:47  |  peacelover 02/01/08
  3.   Missing Candidates 21:05  |  Perplexed 02/01/08
  4.   You forgot RON PAUL 21:08  |  POP 02/01/08
  5.   GULIANI BEST FOR ISRAEL 21:17  |  david 02/01/08
  6.   defining "good for Israel" 21:23  |  avramele 02/01/08
  7.   We Know Clinton, we want Clinton - NOT! 22:34  |  Tyrese Gail William 02/01/08
  8.   The view from Iowa 23:38  |  Mark Finkelstein 02/01/08
  9.   Clinton "communist Hillary" 00:28  |  Friend of Israel 03/01/08
  10.   American President 00:38  |  Concerned 03/01/08
  11.   The Israel Factor: a truly bizarre and amazing concept 00:45  |  Clickfool 03/01/08
  12.   Candidates 01:01  |  Shmuelshachor 03/01/08
  13.   Guliani is the best for U.S.A and Israel 02:41  |  e.m 03/01/08
  14.   Who cares about Israel? This is a US election... WTF? 04:24  |  POP 03/01/08
  15.   Mind Your Businesss Israel, stay out of our election 05:39  |  NYC22 03/01/08
  16.   # 7 06:16  |  Wendy V 03/01/08
  17.   #5, David in New York 06:23  |  Jerry in New York 03/01/08
  18.   David in New York 06:33  |  Karen 03/01/08
  19.   Yo #3,on "missing candidates" 07:09  |  Shmuelshachor 03/01/08
  20.   If you loved Allbright, you`ll love Clinton. 07:33  |  David K. 03/01/08
  21.   SHE GOT THE WORST ALREADY, NOBODY CAN BEAT HER 11:43  |  indrajaya 03/01/08
  22.   This Election Is One Incredible Mess 12:19  |  Yosemite 03/01/08
  23.   Don`t worry Israel 13:05  |  Dav 03/01/08
  24.   Clinton 13:11  |  Hilda 03/01/08
  25.   Israel...Mind Your Own Business 13:36  |  BM 03/01/08
  26.   I came to bash Hillary with the rest of you, but... 13:43  |  Natallie Durson 03/01/08
  27.   Clickfool 13:53  |  Nik "BANNED" Miller 03/01/08
  28.   For Nik "Podge" Miller # 27 15:34  |  Clickfool 03/01/08
  29.   Clinton = bad news for Israel 16:05  |  zionist forever 03/01/08
  30.   So where is Ron Paul? 17:07  |  BB 03/01/08
  31.   GO, RON PAUL! 18:14  |  Dovy 03/01/08
  32.   Israelis should stay out of American politics 18:22  |  JD 03/01/08
  33.   Really?! 18:37  |  Michael N 03/01/08
  34.   Pre-Iowa without Ron Paul !? 18:46  |  Bob 03/01/08
  35.   Forget Hitlery 18:47  |  William 03/01/08
  36.   Clinton/Clinton 18:47  |  Ellis 03/01/08
  37.   JD 18:53  |  Connie 03/01/08
  38.   Why Ron Paul is Excluded 19:18  |  Dovy 03/01/08
  39.   Oy Gevalt! 20:27  |  Vinnie Faggio 03/01/08
  40.   How come Ron Paul is not included ? 20:42  |  Bonheur 03/01/08
  41.   MIKE HUCKABEE Is Best For US/Israel 21:05  |  Sebastian 03/01/08
  42.   Israel Get Lost 22:33  |  David 03/01/08
  43.   israel should stay out of American Politics 23:13  |  alan 03/01/08
  44.   Dovy from Toroto # 38 your wrong 23:53  |  American in NY 03/01/08
  45.   Clickfool #11 VERY TRUE 23:54  |  American in NY 03/01/08
  46.   hillary not good for israel or america 00:00  |  crayola 04/01/08
  47.   WE ALSO "OWN" CLINTON.. 00:10  |  PADDY 04/01/08
  48.   Carte Blanche to get involved in Israeli Politics everyone 01:01  |  POP 04/01/08
  49.   Carte Blanche to get involved in Israeli Politics everyone 01:01  |  POP 04/01/08
  50.   Meddling little Nation 01:07  |  Paulbe 04/01/08
  51.   Haaretz Octopus is playing a dirty game, that it will lose 01:14  |  Jake 04/01/08
  52.   alan, #43 , some American patriot you are! 01:19  |  Jake 04/01/08
  53.   #43 01:33  |  Marc 04/01/08
  54.   #42 David 01:35  |  Marc 04/01/08
  55.   David, #42, you are pathetic and ignorant 01:35  |  Jake 04/01/08
  56.   #39 Bravo, Vinnie Faggio. 02:00  |  Jake 04/01/08
  57.   #48 Jake It is people like you that embarrass 02:28  |  Alan 04/01/08
  58.   #53 Alan 05:02  |  Marc 04/01/08
  59.   So Sorry 07:07  |  Denise 04/01/08
  60.   Syria should stay out of Lebanese politics - oops! 08:00  |  Fred Locke 04/01/08
  61.   "WE ALSO, OWN, CLINTON" 08:06  |  PADDY 04/01/08
  62.   Israel Factor Panel: Do you like apples? 08:21  |  Pablo B 04/01/08
  63.   Paulbe 08:38  |  Connie 04/01/08
  64.   nope 08:47  |  donnie 04/01/08
  65.   Oh dear, Israelis want Clinton in Iowa...... 09:30  |  Esther 04/01/08
  66.   Re Natallie #26 09:38  |  Esther 04/01/08
  67.   Your daughter`s safer with Bill, than Israel with Hillary 12:16  |  Jayantha 04/01/08
  68.   #38 excellent point and very well said! 12:45  |  Out there 04/01/08
  69.   Israel & US Elections 14:51  |  Hadas 04/01/08
  70.   completely silly 15:18  |  OCD 04/01/08
  71.   President MUST be good for America ... 19:26  |  American 04/01/08
  72.   Israel depends on US 22:32  |  Greg 04/01/08