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del.icio.us Digg It!  new Six questions for 2008 By Arik Mirovsky and Guy Lieberman Tags: Real Estate, Israel Many of the participants in TheMarker's survey of forecasts for Israel's real estate sector in 2008 are sunnily positive. They think the boom that began three years ago will continue, whether in the center or perhaps the north and south, too. Yet some glimpse clouds on the horizon. Here are some questionable areas. 1. The global economy. The economic woes in the United States, which infected part of Europe, result in part from problems in the U.S. property market. Foreign money is one of the drivers behind Israel's real estate sector, so pain abroad can hurt demand here. Advertisement 2. Luxury housing. Recently the Ofer brothers made the deal of the year, selling their seaside domicile in Herzliya Pituah for $24 million. An equally impressive transaction saw an apartment nearby changing hands for nearly $30,000 per square meter. But Menachem Oren, co-owner of the Sea One project on Hayarkon Street in Tel Aviv (possibly the priciest project in Israel), admits he's been trying to hawk the penthouse for years but can't get the $20 million he wants, even though rich foreign residents have been soaking up property in Israel for sky-high prices. 3. Rising housing prices in general. Apartment prices rose strongly in 2004 and 2005, changing the market in many areas. For instance, Modi'in had been popular among young couples until two years ago. Now it's more a venue for people seeking to better their standard of living because the young can no longer afford prices there. The same applies to Kiryat Hasharon in Netanya, Em Hamoshavot in Petah Tikva and other places. 4. The periphery has been left out. The Negev and Galilee have been brought closer to the center by the Trans-Israel Highway. But from the perspective of the real estate market, other issues that impact property prices remain unsolved, such as high unemployment rates. Will the price gaps between the center and periphery continue to widen, and until what point? When will matters there improve? 5. The capital market is shaky, and whether that's good or bad for the real estate sector remains to be seen. Some think investors will shy away from the volatility and seek shelter in real estate, but that may be wrong. There's also the question of how shares in real estate companies listed on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange will behave, especially considering the public was wary of them even during good times. 6. Interest rates. Israeli interest rates seem increasingly likely to rise in 2008. How will the rising cost of borrowing affect the property market? Following are opinions by leaders of Israel's real estate scene. Up and up Ori Levy, co-CEO of Gindi Investments: "We see five main trends dominating real estate in 2008. 1. Greater attention to green environment and green construction. 2. In the coming years, more evacuation-construction projects, mainly because of the dearth of land for development in high-demand areas, chiefly the center. 3. Positive internal emigration will strengthen the central cities, which will lift property prices there. This trend will continue to strengthen unless the state builds a rail network that strengthens the periphery. 4. Office space prices will rise because of low supply. 5. In general, the real estate market will continue to flourish in 2008, driven by the economy's momentum and the low level of interest rates." Haifa's year Sharon Schweppe, CEO of Bayside Land Corporation: "2008 will be Haifa's year. For years, Haifa's housing market had floundered while prices rose in the central cities. But Haifa has good basics: a high standard of living, one of the best education systems in Israel, tremendous infrastructure development, the beach, one of the best views in Israel and naturally, jobs in industry, business and hi-tech. Also, while neighboring towns were characterized by building that increased the housing supply, there were few building starts in Haifa. That's going to change this year." Seeing a 5% increase in prices Ami Peretz, CEO of Bonei Hatichon: "The trend of rising prices in high-demand areas will continue, mainly in city centers. Prices in popular areas for apartments in the range of NIS 1.1 million-1.5 million will rise by about 5%, because available land for building starts is insufficient to meet the demand." We feel the subprime pain Erez Cohen, chairman of the Real Estate Appraisers Association in Israel : "The subprime crisis is already impacting the local market. A discernable drop can be felt in foreign real estate investments in Israel. The decline will continue in 2008. The target market for foreign investors is saturated, from the perspective of potential transactions and price levels, which have risen by tens of percent and aren't as attractive as in the past. Prices will remain high in the 'state of Tel Aviv', though they won't rise much. But the halt will affect the periphery, where prices will fall. We've seen it happen before." Few building starts Shimshon Harel, co-CEO of America Israel: "There will be few building starts, if any at all. We can expect brisk sales in Herzliya, Ra'anana, Hod Hasharon, Holon, Petah Tikva and Rishon Letzion because of buyers wanting proximity to Tel Aviv without paying too much. Elsewhere, our forecast is for sluggish activity. Competition in the mortgages sector will mount because institutional investors are getting into the market, which will make housing more affordable. Also, high rent levels in Tel Aviv and its surroundings will encourage buying apartments for investment." Steady prices in Tel Aviv Aliza Cohen, CEO and co-owner of Reshef Properties: "There were no special surprises in 2007. Tel Aviv will continue to behave differently. Prices there range from $4,000 per square meter to $15,000. Outside Tel Aviv, we're seeing a strong circle of demand, for instance in Rishon Letzion, Nes Tziona, Rehovot, Ra'anana, Herzliya, Kfar Sava and Netanya. "Prices in northern and southern peripheral towns remain unchanged, in some places even falling slightly. From the perspective of demand and price levels, Jerusalem behaves like Tel Aviv. In 2008, Tel Aviv prices will remain stable, and demand will remain high in the surrounding cities, where we can expect a 5% increase." Prices will rise 10% in 2008 Yossi Prashkovsky, CEO of Prashkovsky Investments and Construction: "Trends in the real estate market generally change slowly. The market is affected by the security situation, economic growth, unemployment levels and foreign investment. In recent years, we saw a rebound in Israel's real estate sphere. The housing market started growing again and the upswing permeated the market for office and commercial space, too. At first, the trend was only in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, but in the last year it spread to the second and third circles, too. "I believe the trend will continue to develop for a few years, and therefore, subject to a reasonable security situation, economic growth and receding unemployment, the market will continue to strengthen for the foreseeable future. Prices will rise 10% in 2008." Expect new record prices Dror Kuznitsky, CEO of Minrav Projects: "Given the economic improvement this year, the drop in unemployment, the low level of interest on mortgages, and the relatively low exchange rate of the dollar, I expect the real estate sector to remain lively next year, and to see housing prices continue to rise. The recession isn't likely to return and the market seems to have reacted well to the reality of rising prices. "I think we'll continue to see prices breaking records next year, especially in the Sharon cities, in Kiryat Ono and in Rishon Letzion." Towers and towers Haim Feiglin, co-CEO, ZMH Hammerman Group: "I expect the rising prices that characterized the market in Tel Aviv and its satellite cities in the last two years to reach the periphery in 2008. Most of the demand will be in the center, but housing prices will start rising north of Hadera and south of Gedera, even reaching Carmiel. The fad of towers in the center will spread to the north Sharon and Shfela, including areas that feature low construction. The reasons are rising costs of land and paucity of land available for development." Moscow on the Yarkon Shlomo Grofman, chairman of the Grofman-Shoval Faire Fund: "As a presidium member at the 2007 Business Conference last week, I met with leaders of the global economy and we all believe that 2008 will be a year of growth for Israel, because of the downtrend in real estate prices, mainly in the U.S., leading foreign investors to look at Israel. "I expect prices to increase by at least 10% in most real estate projects in central Israel. I'm not talking about a bubble, but some companies - and I say this with caution - issued bonds at high interest rates to finance projects that could encounter trouble. There is still potential in foreign investors. A foreign economic leader told me there's no reason why property prices in Tel Aviv should be lower than in Moscow. "Most, for instance, will continue to focus on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, but I expect them to turn attention to other unique areas in central Israel: Bat Yam as a city with an attractive shoreline, and Petah Tikva and Holon, which are on main traffic arteries and are near Tel Aviv." Bookmark to del.icio.us Construction freeze PM says no W. Bank construction without his prior approval. Lived to tell the tale Surviving hiker recounts Friday's attack in Hebron Hills.

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