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del.icio.us Digg It!  new Last update - 10:09 27/12/2007 Hamas' test of responsibility By Aluf Benn Tags: Hezbollah, Sderot, Israel  Hezbollah has never recognized Israel or agreements with it, has not stopped using violence, and continues to get stronger and acquire rockets. Nevertheless, the situation in the North reminds us of the time before the Second Lebanon War. A balance of fear on both sides of the border between Hezbollah's long-range rockets and the Israel Air Force's firepower guarantees calm even without diplomatic agreements. The cease-fire that ended the war did not meet all of Israel's expectations. Hezbollah was not disarmed, and the abducted soldiers from the Israel Defense Forces are still captives of that Lebanese organization. But no one in Israel, not even the most right-wing MK, has suggested that the IDF stay in southern Lebanon until the captives are returned, or until Hezbollah is disarmed. Even now, no one here is proposing to attack Hezbollah or Syria in an attempt to stop the arms smuggling and the increase in strength across the border that continues under the aegis of the United Nations force. Nor is anyone demanding that our hostile neighbor, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, refute his ideology, accept the Quartet's conditions and recognize Israel. Advertisement Israel now faces a similar decision in the confrontation with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which Prime Minister Ehud Olmert this week called "a real war.". In the South, as in the North last time around, both sides are battered. The complaints by the people of Sderot and the nearby communities distress the government and army, which for the past six years has been unable to prevent the firing of the Qassams. The idea of a ground invasion into Gaza, with its attendant losses, arouses little enthusiasm in the military and political leadership. Hamas is also exhausted and damaged by Israel's economic siege and the IDF's targeted assassinations, and wants a respite. The deal being formulated is reminiscent of the understandings between Israel and Hezbollah: Gaza will stop firing rockets at Israel, and Israel "will respond to quiet with quiet." No formal agreements will be signed, Hamas will refrain from accepting the Quartet's conditions, and the mutual diplomatic boycott will continue. The Palestinians' military strengthening in Gaza will also continue and occasionally create a dilemma for Israel on whether to invade the strip "so that in the next round we won't be confronting a much stronger Hamas." But Israel has tended to engage in prophylactic activities only against nuclear programs in neighboring countries, not to eliminate the smuggling of explosives and rifles. It is hard to assume that it will embark on a Gaza conquest because of arms smuggling if the firing of rockets and mortars at Sderot is stopped. The strategic logic of a cease-fire with Hamas will be explained with the claim that a break in the fighting will allow Israel to become stronger, reinforce the IDF and develop defense systems against rockets. A calming of the southern front will also make it easier to focus on a possible confrontation with Iran next year. If Israel decides to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities, Hamas will face a difficult decision on whether to renew the rocket fire to retaliate against Israel for attacking a distant country, or focus on the Palestinians' local interests. Nasrallah, who is more dependent on Iran, will face a similar dilemma. Implementing this scenario depends on one thing: Hamas' ability to enforce the cease-fire on all the organizations, groups and gangs in Gaza, just as Hezbollah guarantees the quiet in Lebanon and prevents Palestinian organizations and others from operating independently against Israel for fear of damaging its own interests. Hamas has not yet restrained Islamic Jihad and other groups that have fired into Israel from Gaza with the excuse that Hamas should not hamper the "resistance." Now, with Gaza under its control, Hamas faces a test of responsibility. If it succeeds in halting the fire, it will indirectly benefit from Israeli legitimization as a serious and responsible security force, like Hezbollah. But if it fails, or is evasive as in the past, it will bring Israel closer to the decision to enter the Gaza Strip once again. Bookmark to del.icio.us Who shot Bhutto? Conspiracy theories over the assassination of the Pakistani opposition leader abound. Obama and Israel Israelis following the U.S. elections are not clear on Obama's approach.   1.   benn meets bill and they play together in the garden of inanity 10:41  |  victor hardman 27/12/07   2.   aluf benn 10:53  |  george 27/12/07   3.   Hamas does not seek approval from Israel 11:29  |  Natallie Durson 27/12/07   4.   Hamas Has Offered Just This, and Israel Refused 12:11  |  Yaakov Sullivan 27/12/07   5.   This is why israel refuses a cease-fire with Hamas 12:36  |  Aussie Joo 27/12/07   6.   Not "legitimacy", it would just mean they were defeated... 12:53  |  Dr. L. Brnd 27/12/07   7.   Dr L. Brand and the Mau Mau 13:11  |  Yaakov Sullivan 27/12/07   8.   Not sure why israel continues to talk about `right to exist`.It 13:12  |  lakshmi 27/12/07   9.   The Right To Exist #8 13:30  |  Yaakov Sullivan 27/12/07   10.   #4 yaakov still dreaming of paradise on 42nd st? 14:08  |  victor hardman 27/12/07   11.   When did Paul Harris Become Victor Hardman? 14:22  |  Yaakov Sullivan 27/12/07   12.   RESPONSIBILITY???? 14:58  |  Brant 27/12/07   13.   Brant and Hamas 15:34  |  Yaakov Sullivan 27/12/07   14.   Benn is under the influence of Israeli self-delusion 16:05  |  Tosefta 27/12/07   15.   HAMAS IS NOTHING 17:31  |  indrajaya 27/12/07   16.   #11 Yaakov Sullivan re Harrisman 17:37  |  Labhras 27/12/07   17.   Hamas wants some of those Euros, nothing else 17:53  |  Voice of Reason 27/12/07   18.   What is Slowman doing in the supermarket? 17:57  |  Aluf Benn 27/12/07   19.   #7 Sullivan: Hitler wanted a "hudna" in Nov. 1944, Allies refused 18:07  |  Dr. L. Brnd 27/12/07   20.   Hamas passed the test 18:11  |  Jan Elshout 27/12/07   21.   #20 Jan Elshout 18:33  |  Labhras 27/12/07   22.   Hamas legitimacy is nil. Whether or not they choose to pause 18:44  |  Marwan مروان خوري 27/12/07   23.   a cease-fire with Hamas 19:01  |  KUTW 27/12/07   24.   facing a test of responsibility 19:04  |  KUTW 27/12/07   25.   9Yaakov Sullivan,you are correct in using the word `compounded` 19:07  |  lakshmi 27/12/07   26.   3. Natallie Durson: Hamas does not seek approval 19:08  |  KUTW 27/12/07   27.   4. Yaakov Sullivan: Hamas Has Offered Just This 19:10  |  KUTW 27/12/07   28.   5. Aussie Joo: This is why israel refuses a cease-fire 19:13  |  KUTW 27/12/07   29.   8. lakshmi: the right to exist 19:28  |  KUTW 27/12/07   30.   Obsessive Israel-hating Sullivan 5 of first 13 posts 20:02  |  McQueen 27/12/07   31.   SULLIVAN: SOME SIMPLICITY FOR YOU 21:11  |  Brant 27/12/07   32.   hamas & what responsibility 22:03  |  Adrian der Klerk 27/12/07   33.   A Retaliation is not a War. 22:11  |  GPS 27/12/07   34.   responsibility test of Hamas 22:16  |  Isca 27/12/07   35.   Aluf`s Doctrine on Cowardice 22:21  |  Mark Hamil 27/12/07   36.   #30 Mc queen re Yaakov 22:26  |  Labhras 27/12/07   37.   Hamas will stop firing Qassams... 22:37  |  Walter 27/12/07   38.   #9 Yaakov (the muslim) Sullivan 22:44  |  Adrian de Klerk 27/12/07   39.   #8 lakshmi - deed to learn stuff 22:58  |  Adrian de Klerk 27/12/07   40.   we have a new military analyst on this site 23:23  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 27/12/07   41.   Hello Lakshmi, The only right Israel will ever receive ... 02:15  |  Dutch 28/12/07   42.   Makes No Sense 09:56  |  An American 28/12/07   43.   The rest of the story 17:53  |  Neil Golan 28/12/07   44.   #43 18:37  |  NAJI 28/12/07   45.   Hello Aluf Benn Re unspoken agreements 15:06  |  Dutch 29/12/07

Today Online 2 Israelis killed, one hurt in W. Bank shooting attack Responses: 363 Benn, Rosner: Israel needs a 'Rice bypass road' to White House Responses: 161 PM to Abbas: Israel will not undermine peace efforts Responses: 106 Akiva Eldar: Peace deal must start with prisoner release Responses: 90 IDF kills former PA premier's bodyguard during W. Bank raid Responses: 93 New version of old defense group guards Jewish farmlands Responses: 44 More Headlines 16:11 PA minister vows 'harsh measures' against killers of 2 Israelis 16:05 Official says PA dismantling Al-Aqsa and other militant groups 15:36 Close to two thousand pilgrims from Gaza trapped in Egypt 13:27 Sarkozy, in Egypt, offers French nuclear assistance to Cairo 14:28 U.S. court overturns award over W. Bank shooting of yeshiva boy 22:03 Some U.S. candidates warn: The real danger is Pakistan, not Iran 10:36 Pakistani militant leader denies involvement in Bhutto killing 10:34 PM announces intention to change building permits 08:03 Two Hamas militants wounded in internal violence in Gaza Strip 15:18 Court rules painting auctioned by Nazis belongs to Jewish man Previous Editions Select Day 28 dec 27 dec 26 dec 25 dec 24 dec 23 dec 21 dec 20 dec 19 dec 18 dec 17 dec 16 dec

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