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One comment about Winograd
By Yoel Marcus
Tags: Ehud Olmert, Winograd

Defense Minister Ehud Barak said recently that Ehud Olmert's personal relations with President George W. Bush are a strategic asset for Israel. That kind of compliment from a potential political rival, who is counting on Olmert's fall so he can succeed him as prime minister in early elections, is no small matter.

President Bush held former prime minister Ariel Sharon in very high regard as a brave and resourceful general who could be your partner in crime, but no personal relations developed between them. With Olmert, in contrast, close relations have been formed. A psychologist would say it's because both of them are at a low ebb in the polls and each has a common interest in aiding the other in the war against Islamic terrorism.

Hanging on the wall in the prime minister's residence are two framed photographs of Bush and Olmert strolling through the White House Rose Garden, locked in an embrace. The photos were sent to him personally by Bush as a mark of what the president terms their "close friendship." Bush gradually lost the support of leaders who pinned hopes on him but were disappointed because of the failed war in Iraq. When Tony Blair, the closest and last of his confidants, resigned, Bush somehow found in Olmert an interlocutor for intimate political conversations. On the basis of personal sympathy, the president decided to increase U.S. security aid to Israel in the next decade from $24 billion to $30 billion.
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The two conceived and coordinated the negotiations with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) following Olmert's commitment to withdraw to the 1967 lines on the basis of a territorial exchange and to discuss the conflict's core issues when the time comes. Afterward came the Annapolis conference, which many considered a success because of its large turnout, including the presence of moderate Muslim countries. And on January 9, Bush is scheduled to begin a three-day visit to Israel.

The rashness and lack of judgment that characterized Olmert, due to his blind trust in former chief of staff Dan Halutz, dragged the country into the Second Lebanon War and effectively sealed Olmert's fate as a failed leader. Barak was quick to seize control of the Labor Party, in the belief that the Winograd Committee would bring about Olmert's ouster, leading to early elections in 2008.

But Olmert's rivals misjudged his ability to learn from his failure and his determination to mend his ways quickly. The dramatic turning point came with the bombing of the Syrian facility on September 6. Until the details of the operation become public, undoubtedly under pressure from the U.S. Congress, which is demanding an authoritative revelation, its details remain secret.

In any event, this unusual operation demanded a complex decision-making process, the maintenance of a precise timetable, coordination and cooperation, and above all backing in Israel and abroad. Olmert shared, consulted and weighed the operation in minute detail with the relevant forums. He analyzed every possible scenario, including some that were terrifying. One misstep and a regional war could have erupted.

The failure of the Lebanon war apparently gave birth to a leader who internalized his failure in every sphere of his behavior, both in the internal political constellation and his restrained behavior toward the shelling by Hamas. In practice, not a day goes by without focused offensive operations by the Israel Defense Forces in the Gaza Strip. In the past year, 260 terrorists have been killed, and three IDF soldiers. A massive entry into Gaza is not on Olmert's agenda in any case.

Five days after the Bush visit, the Winograd Committee is due to make public its final conclusions. As the committee did not issue prior warnings, its conclusions will probably be left to the court of public opinion, which is liable to demand the resignation of senior office holders, among them the prime minister.

Aware of this danger, the Winograd Committee asked those involved to provide it with documentation about flaws that have already been corrected. If the committee takes into account the operation in Syria and all that preceded it, and the way Olmert performed at home and abroad, the obvious conclusion is that the war's conceptual mistakes have been learned.

It will be a mistake and an injustice if a lethal, harsh conclusion by the Winograd Committee throws a prime minister, who by all accounts has matured as a leader, into the lions' den and throws the whole country into political chaos.
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  1.   Corrupt and corrupting thinking 05:30  |  Michael N 21/12/07
  2.   Marcus - His Columns are Beyond Dumb 08:04  |  Tod Zuckerman 21/12/07
  3.   one comment about mr. marcus` piece 09:43  |  saul a. readner 21/12/07
  4.   to michael n 09:46  |  saul a. readner 21/12/07
  5.   Yoel, you`re telling Winograd what to do? 10:01  |  S 21/12/07
  6.   To Saul Readner 12:45  |  Michael N 21/12/07
  7.   michael n 23:27  |  saul a. readner 21/12/07
  8.   Winograd 00:56  |  Bill 22/12/07
  9.   Let me try again Saul readner 01:50  |  Michael N 22/12/07
  10.   michael n - let me also try it again 09:06  |  saul a. readner 22/12/07
  11.   Marcus; NMicheal N. , saul readner 10:30  |  moshe Israel 22/12/07
  12.   #11 Moshe Israel 16:04  |  Michael N 22/12/07
  13.   Corruption 16:23  |  Joseph 22/12/07
  14.   Marcus on olmert 20:25  |  geroge 22/12/07
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