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Hamas leader in Gaza Ismail Haniyeh. (Reuters)
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Last update - 03:59 21/12/2007
ANALYSIS: Is a truce between Israel and Hamas possible?
By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel, Haarertz Correspondents
Tags: cease-fire, Gaza, Israel 

The deaths in central Gaza's Al-Ma'azi region only added to the pall of gloom over the holiday season in the strip Thursday. With most of the population now living below the poverty line, fewer people than ever can afford the NIS 1,200 for the traditional sheep to slaughter. A few hundred Hamas supporters did, however, get a sheep or calf as a holiday gift.

The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank announced, perhaps in response, that it would give five calves to needy families in every region.

The talk, mainly in the Israeli media, about a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas sounds so far-fetched in Gaza that it could be about some other place. Activists of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other organizations continued Thursday to fight Isaeli troops at al-Ma'azi and to fire rockets and artillery. Despite the truce overtures by the Hamas leader in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, it is doubtful he can restrain these maverick activists.
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Haniyeh and his associates appeared somewhat taken by surprise by the talk about the temporary truce they had triggered in Israel. For months they had talked about their desire for a truce with Israel but nobody here would listen. A chance telephone call between Haniyeh and Channel 2 reporter Suleiman al-Shafi led Israel's defense establishment to reconsider.

The change in Israel's approach was mainly caused by the desire to avoid a major operation in the Gaza Strip. The scornful dismissal of Haniyeh's initiative made way for a more sober examination. Some believed Haniyeh's offer reflected real distress in the Hamas ranks. The Israel Defense Forces believes Israel should increase its pressure on Hamas in a bid to dictate better terms. But if Haniyeh can deliver the goods and get the other organizations to stop firing the rockets, he may find open ear in Israel.

A PA defense official did not object to the idea. If Haniyeh decides to prevail on the organizations to stop the shooting at Israel, he would trigger an armed clash with Islamic Jihad. Hamas would split between Haniyeh's supporters and the military wing, headed by Ahmad al-Jabari, who objects to the truce.

"When two feuding families are forbidden to attack each other for a while, this could lead to circumstances enabling an improvement in their relations," Haniyeh's political adviser Ahmad Yusef said, trying to explain to Haaretz the meaning of tahdiya, or a period of calm.

He did not say what happens if such circumstances are not created. In this case Israel is likely to confront a better-armed and trained guerrilla army that would threaten the entire southern region with rockets.

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      1.   Same nonsense:Hamas will arm other groups,claim it respects truce 00:36  |  McQueen 21/12/07
      2.   Israel will always break the truce. 01:04  |  Pablo B 21/12/07
      3.   Israel has turned down truces with Hamas 01:22  |  Steve 21/12/07
      4.   JIHADISTS PRESENT ISRAEL WITH THREE CHOICES 01:51  |  G. Marcus 21/12/07
      5.   Peace Is Possible if Israel Recognizes Palestinian Right to Exist 01:54  |  Lev Bronstein 21/12/07
      6.   No 02:08  |  Chris Linthwaite 21/12/07
      7.   Why would Israel want one 03:12  |  J K 21/12/07
      8.   No! 03:13  |  akiva (zionist) 21/12/07
      9.   @#1 G. Marcus... 03:15  |  akiva (zionist) 21/12/07
      10.   #8 A zionist from Illinois (that is in America btw) 03:45  |  Chris Linthwaite 21/12/07
      11.   No way! 04:32  |  Jeffrey 21/12/07
      12.   Like a repeat from last year... 04:37  |  Awake 21/12/07
      13.   With God all things are possible. "With" being the key word. 05:20  |  Virginia 21/12/07
      14.   # 4, With God there are two choices.... 05:25  |  Virginia 21/12/07
      15.   Israel is dumm enough to accept !!! 05:25  |  Shlomo 21/12/07
      16.   Truce possible 05:59  |  Truths 21/12/07
      17.   UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF HANIYEH STATEMENTS 06:18  |  indrajaya 21/12/07
      18.   ONLY CHANCE OF A TRUCE; DESTROY HAMAS 06:58  |  Jorge 21/12/07
      19.   Pablo will always blame Israel 08:01  |  Dan 21/12/07
      20.   Even when three was `truce`, there was no truce 08:03  |  Dan 21/12/07
      21.   wrong question! IS IT DESIRABLE? 08:49  |  victor hardman 21/12/07
      22.   The Israeli Way... 08:55  |  Johnboy 21/12/07
      23.   IT COULD START THIS VERY DAY 09:02  |  indrajaya 21/12/07
      24.   start targeting all hamas leadership, watch the rockets stop 10:06  |  don 21/12/07
      25.   Israel needs strong partners 10:31  |  Fritz Teich 21/12/07
      26.   haniyeh & peace - yeah right 10:39  |  Adrian de Klerk 21/12/07
      27.   Linthwaite 10:58  |  Israeli 21/12/07
      28.   Animal sacrifices: pagan rites 11:00  |  Israeli 21/12/07
      29.   not one arab to be trusted 13:42  |  real vision 21/12/07
      30.   BLESS YOU MR HANIYEH..... AT LEAST YOU ARE HONEST 13:53  |  MONEYTALKS 21/12/07
      31.   Zionists are NEVER interested in peace... they breed on WARS 13:54  |  TrippleJump 21/12/07
      32.   For the first time israel has dropped the idiotic condition of 13:55  |  lakshmi 21/12/07
      33.   Answer to ANALYSIS - NO....... 13:59  |  Dagma 21/12/07
      34.   We should accept the truce! 14:09  |  Nik "Banned" Miller 21/12/07
      35.   # 32, LAKSHMI 14:44  |  indrajaya 21/12/07
      36.   # 5 Lev Davidovich - back from Mexico? Advice from Moscow?! 14:52  |  17 21/12/07
      37.   3# 27 Israeli - Disregrd CL - it is all about validation of 15:06  |  17 21/12/07
      38.   A truce yes, of course - but peace NO! 15:15  |  redmike 21/12/07
      39.   A Sucker`s Deal 15:38  |  David Samson 21/12/07
      40.   #4, G. Marcus, is absolutely right 15:40  |  David Samson 21/12/07
      41.   Okay, TIME OUT!!! For Glory to God...And the next individual to 16:08  |  Light a candle 21/12/07
      42.   I wouldn`t count on that lakshmi... 16:21  |  Think about it 21/12/07
      43.   #32, Indrajaya 17:04  |  Czech Man 21/12/07
      44.   35Indrajaya,no doubt about it,the Palestinians will go down 17:41  |  lakshmi 21/12/07
      45.   Fritz 19:47  |  Albert Seligman 21/12/07
      46.   he lev if that is your name, give it a rest, when hamas 19:59  |  Steve-NYC 21/12/07
      47.   Hillary may force a truce 20:36  |  RE 21/12/07
      48.   Palestine has right to exist on all historic Brit Mandate 20:36  |  akiva (zionist) 21/12/07
      49.   #10 Chris ,I would like to know,were do you get your 20:39  |  TOMY 21/12/07
      50.   Translation: Israel is now suppose to help Hamas not to split up 20:41  |  Alicia 21/12/07
      51.   indijaya,lokshmock,Chris,..and others are having 20:44  |  TOMY 21/12/07
      52.   ABSOLUTELY! 20:50  |  Blogowitz 21/12/07
      53.   Pablo - there was no truce. Just an eviction. 22:10  |  Steve 21/12/07
      54.   Poor pathetic faker, Akiva never makes spelling mistakes 22:40  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 21/12/07
      55.   Let me lay it out for you anti Israel folks 22:41  |  Steve 21/12/07
      56.   words used to warn and actions formed from them 17:30  |  montgomery rosen 22/12/07
      57.   Hamas should be able to understand now that they`re in charge 18:03  |  newageblues 22/12/07
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