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del.icio.us Digg It!  new One Qassam too many By Amos Harel Tags: Hamas, truce, Israel The trial balloon floated on Tuesday by Gaza Strip Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is apparently more significant than it seemed at first glance. The Hamas offer of a truce, even though it has not been issued officially and Israeli figures (including even President Shimon Peres) have responded dismissively, reflects a genuine change in the situation. Although Haniyeh chose to transmit his message to the Israeli leadership in an unconventional way - a telephone call, which was not recorded, initiated by Channel 2 reporter Suleiman al-Shafi - similar ideas had been raised recently in talks between individuals who are thought to represent the relatively moderate wing of Hamas and Israeli figures, including retired senior military officers. According to the Israeli media reports, Haniyeh spoke about a hudna (cease-fire), for a specified length of time - possibly as long as 10 years. But there may very well be some linguistic confusion here. Hamas is apparently referring to a tahdiya (lull, or quiet), an intermediate status that reflects a lower degree of commitment and which is usually imposed for a shorter period of time. Total calm is not achieved, but the demands of both parties are more limited. Advertisement Since the start of the second intifada, in September 2000, there has been one attempt to achieve a meaningful hudna, in the summer of 2003. The experiment, by then-prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority chairman Yasser Arafat, blew up after six weeks in a deadly terror attack on the Number 2 bus in Jerusalem. There have been several tahdiyas, all of them brief and all of them punctuated by frequent interruptions. In the winter of 2005, the PA and the Islamic organizations achieved a tahdiya among themselves, in advance of Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and with Israeli encouragement. It held up, off and on, until after the evacuation the following summer, mainly because decision-makers abroad - Iran, Hezbollah, the Hamas leadership in Damascus - instructed the organizations in the territories to show restraint, "so as not to prevent the Jews from retreating." Why is Israel so dismissive now of the latest idea for achieving calm? For the same reason that Haniyeh is so interested in it. Notwithstanding the intensive media attention on the distress in Sderot, the situation in Gaza is immeasurably worse: The combination of Israeli air attacks, a tight economic blockade and increasing losses among the terror organizations is putting Hamas under considerable, almost intolerable, pressure. Haniyeh, who only last Saturday declared to an audience of hundreds of thousands in Gaza that there will never be a reconciliation with Israel, is now looking for new ways out because the organization is in dire need of a break. Cigarettes for NIS 60 The failure of Hamas is also economic. The organization, which in the general elections nearly two years ago ran on a platform of reform, is indeed less corrupt than its Fatah enemies, but unemployment has risen, the possibility of traveling abroad via Egypt has declined dramatically and Gaza's economic isolation is immeasurably more acute. Haniyeh, under the Israeli steamroller, is in effect the commander of a large prison, Gaza Prison. Furthermore, Hamas' military wing, headed by Ahmad Jabari, does not accept his leadership. The Israeli sanctions affect everything, with the exception of basic staples. Disposable diapers are hard to come by and cigarettes have soared to NIS 60 per pack. Cigarettes, not Kalashnikov assault rifles, are the most popular items for smuggling through the Rafah tunnels. Hamas has more than enough Kalashnikovs, in the wake of the Fatah security forces' surrender in the "June revolution." Cigarettes are a different story. Hamas, which controls most of the tunnels, earned about $25 million last month from taxes on smuggled cigarettes. As far as Hamas is concerned, the military picture is not more encouraging than the economic one. Dozens of people are killed in Gaza every month, most of them gunmen. (The Israel Defense Forces has been successful recently in reducing Palestinian civilian casualties.) Despite the firm hold of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, their military forces are still a small group - slightly over 10,000 men at arms, hundreds of whom have been killed this year. This week 10 militants, several of them high up in the organization's military wing, were killed in a three-phase attack on an Islamic Jihad cell of missile launchers by the Shin Bet security service and the IDF. The decrease in Qassam fire by Islamic Jihad since then is the result not of an ideological decision but rather of logistical requirements. The militants fear the Shin Bet has succeeded in infiltrating their ranks and they have gone underground to limit the damage. Considering the number of Palestinian losses, Hamas is evincing relative restraint. The organization has avoided launching Qassams, making do with firing mortar shells at IDF bases and Israeli communities adjacent to the fence. This too is costing it dearly: About a month ago the cabinet approved the IDF proposal that Hamas positions should be bombed in response to any mortar hits on Israeli civilian targets. This has had some deterrent effect, but senior officers admit that it is a limited one. Hamas can be kept from firing mortar shells some of the time but no formula has been found for forcing it stop other organizations from firing Qassam rockets. The military wing of Hamas is working on spectacular operations, along the lines of the abduction of Gilad Shalit, with the aim of restoring the balance of terror with Israel. Thus far, these efforts have failed. The IDF's skirmishes with Hamas, in a strip of Gazan territory two or three kilometers wide, is aimed in part at preventing the excavation of tunnels that would enable terrorists to infiltrate IDF bases or kibbutzim close to the border, with the goal of abducting or killing Israelis. This state of affairs is spurring Hamas to seek a temporary escape route. The desire to celebrate the Muslim feast of Id al-Adha in relative quiet is also a factor. Haniyeh is trying to corral the smaller factions into agreeing to halt the Qassams in return for a cessation of the targeted assassinations and the granting to the Hamas political leadership, at least temporarily, of "anti-assassination insurance." If he can arrange for Shalit's release to become part of the deal, then Israeli interest is sure to rise. Yesterday the mass-circulation daily Maariv reported that for the first time in months, there has been progress in the talks on Shalit's release. This is good news, of course, but it is not clear whether Haniyeh, or even Hamas political chief Khaled Meshal, can supply the goods. And if the parties are indeed close to an agreement, it's hard to believe that Haniyeh needs Suleiman al-Shafi of Israel's Channel 2 news to suggest a truce. Ordering a la carte The feelers from Hamas created a certain amount of confusion on the Israeli side. Cabinet Minister Ami Ayalon and Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz said it should be examined with an open mind. The defense establishment, however, is strenuously opposed to the idea. In recent weeks, despite the barrages on Sderot, the army has begun to sense for the first time that its course of action is working in its favor. The balance in terms of the IDF's offensive posture is reasonable; while the Qassams have not been restrained, for now Israeli casualties are low, perhaps also because the militants operating the launchers are feeling persecuted and cannot easily reach more effective launch sites. It appears that the IDF is now trying to turn up the pressure on Hamas to push it into declaring an unconditional truce. Even if this tactic proves successful, however, the West Bank will still pose a major problem. Israel will not stop its arrest raids there for fear of renewed terror attacks in the Tel Aviv region. Several cease-fires in the past broke down because terror organizations in Gaza responded with Qassam fire to the killing of their colleagues in the West Bank. Here's the forecast for the next several weeks: continued military activity by Israel, with an emphasis on air attacks. In the next phase, if Hamas continues to evince flexibility in its positions and demonstrates an ability to stop the Qassams, it and Israel will have something to talk about, even if the contacts are by means of intermediaries. If, however, Hamas and Islamic Jihad respond with rocket barrages, then the IDF will probably be open to further escalation, culminating in a limited ground operation in Gaza. The two burning problems, from Israel's perspective, are the Qassams fired from the northern Gaza Strip and the smuggling of more sophisticated weaponry (explosives, antitank guns, antiaircraft guns, Katyusha missiles) into Rafah. A ground operation would likely focus on these problems in an attempt to avoid a confrontation in the heavily populated center of the Strip. The public declarations by Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak this week reflected satisfaction with the achievements of the IDF and the Shin Bet. Privately both men are already expressing fewer reservations about a ground operation than in the past. The bottom line is that a lot still depends on a single Qassam rocket. In this respect, the question of whether Israel will launch a ground operation in Gaza this winter is hanging by a thread. Assuming the IDF eventually does go into Gaza, what are its chances of success? The current improvement in the situation is not much of a predictor. The IDF is returning a lot of fire (from the air, in concert with the accurate firing of missiles from the ground), with limited engagement on the ground with the Palestinians. In focused actions, it is easy for the army to maintain Israel's technological superiority, but the introduction of large numbers of forces deeper into the Strip and for an extended period would involve infinitely more contact. Merely "softening up" the opposition inside built-up areas prior to the introduction of the forces will require massive artillery fire that is almost guaranteed to cause many civilian casualties as well. One of the difficulties facing the army is that the public and the cabinet will judge its achievements in terms of the Second Lebanon War: Will the IDF succeed, this time, in ending the Qassams after failing to end the Katyushas in the north? Considering the population density in the Gaza Strip and the proximity of downtown Gaza City to Israeli territory, it will be difficult to halt the missile firing completely solely by taking control of the northern Gaza Strip. Israel may very well be facing a large military action in Gaza, but precisely for this reason it would behoove us not to sketch out rosy scenarios in which the "new IDF" overcomes every problem. Even when talking about a limited measure, war in Gaza is not like a restaurant meal: It's difficult to order an appetizer without also having to pay for an entree. Bookmark to del.icio.us Maradona irks the Jews The retired soccer legend says he'd like to meet Iranian President Ahmadinejad. A piece of history Descendants of the survivors of the 1929 Hebron massacre buy a home in the city.   1.   RATS ON THE RUN -Israel must finish the job 19:26  |  don 21/12/07

Today Online Shmuel Rosner: Israel has Obama's backing to stay a Jewish state Responses: 117 Amira Hass: Will PA ire at settlements spark a new Intifada? Responses: 61 Editorial: They were brought here as Jews, so treat them as such Responses: 43 Aluf Benn: If Hamas stops Qassams, it will win indirect legitimacy Responses: 30 Source: Turkey is studying support from Israel 'very closely' Responses: 63 More Headlines 20:47 Rioting engulfs Pakistan in wake of Bhutto assassination 20:52 Bush: Bhutto slaying 'cowardly'; Peres says 'shocked' by attack 19:28 IDF foils Gaza attack on troops; at least four militants killed 20:13 ANALYSIS: Conspiracy theories abound over Benazir Bhutto slaying 20:06 Barack Obama backs Israel remaining a Jewish state 17:21 Olmert to Abbas: Israel will not erect any new settlements in West Bank 14:12 U.S. Congressman: Syria wrong if it thinks Democrat would give if better deal 14:48 Groups appeal state bid to wrap up mass Ethiopian immigration 13:29 Egypt arrests five Sudanese refugees trying to cross into Israel Previous Editions Select Day 26 dec 25 dec 24 dec 23 dec 21 dec 20 dec 19 dec 18 dec 17 dec 16 dec 14 dec 13 dec

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