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Last update - 12:17 19/12/2007
ANALYSIS: Israel strikes hard in Gaza in attempt to avoid an invasion
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondets
Tags: invasion, Israel, Gaza, IDF

The air strikes in the Gaza Strip which killed 11 Palestinians in less than a day, including two senior Islamic Jihad figures, have given rise to a number of questions. Does this constitute a change in Israel's policy? Does this suggest that Israel is planning to invade the Gaza Strip soon? The way things appear at this time, the answer to both is negative.

Between Monday night and Tuesday afternoon, the air force struck four times in the Strip. The first two attacks were assassinations: the individuals were specifically targeted due to their leading roles in the Qassam rocket attacks carried out by the Islamic Jihad. Majed Harazin was described by the Shin Bet as being in charge of the rocket arsenal, while Karim Duhduh was responsible for the production of Qassams. Four other militants were killed with them.


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he third attack occured Tuesday morning and targeted a Qassam crew who tried to fire rockets against Sderot to avenge the killing of their leaders. Three militants were killed in that incident.

The fourth attack came in response to a Hamas mortar attack against Kerem Shalom, and targeted a military installation of the group near Khan Yunis. Two militants were killed.

No civilians were killed in any of the attacks.

So, what is new about the Israeli attacks? Not very much. The leaders of the Qassam crews had been on the sights of the security services for some time. What happened on Monday night was the merging of a number of elements: precise intelligence, the right type of operational opportunity, and maybe also some extra motivation on the part of Israel to strike at Islamic Jihad because of its leading role in the recent rocket barrages. This may have resulted in the investment of more resources than usual for the attacks.

Nonetheless, the impression is that Israel is now trying anything short of a large-scale ground operation in the Strip. There will be more assassinations and raids, but the leadership would like to avoid, at this stage, a general escalation.

A note of warning: it is difficult to carry out "controlled escalation" in the territories. It is never possible to know what the result of the IDF attacks will be and, of course, it is impossible to predict when a routine Qassam rocket attack may become a lethal blow on Sderot.

The Islamic Jihad has already warned that the attacks will cost Israel dearly. This has not happened yet, and there are concerns in Gaza that Israel has managed to penetrate the Islamic Jihad's security system, exposing their people. As such, all senior figures went underground and most avoided participating in the funerals for the those killed.

But it is hard to imagine that the assassinations will be able to contain the Islamic Jihad. In the past, as it did yesterday, Hamas, a more pragmatic organization, did show restraint following a series of assassinations. But the Islamic Jihad lacks similar flexibility - caught between its radical ideology and Iranian funding. We can safely assume that they will seek the right opportunity to avenge the deaths of their leaders.


Related articles:
  • PM: We'll keep targeting Gaza leaders over rockets
  • Palestinian officials: IDF Gaza actions may sabotage talks
  • Hamas: Advanced defense plan ready for when IDF enters Gaza
  • Israel vows to press ahead with campaign against Gaza militants
  • 30 tons of explosives smuggled into Gaza since disengagement


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      1.   you should have taken the hudna 03:57  |  muslim 19/12/07
      2.   It is only a matter of $$$, there will always be information! 04:20  |  Marabu 19/12/07
      3.   Two separate corporations owned by same shareholders 04:47  |  Darth Zaider (Ed) 19/12/07
      4.   Coincidences, nothing more, and lotsa luck for the braves 04:55  |  protected civilian 19/12/07
      5.   Coincidences, nothing more, and lotsa luck for the braves 04:55  |  protected civilian 19/12/07
      6.   Ah my muslim #1! Why Jews should take hudna?-Muslims, take PEACE! 06:45  |  Vittorio 19/12/07
      7.   If IDF wants to stop qassams, it needs to destroy infrastrucure 06:54  |  Voice of Reason 19/12/07
      8.   Payment in kind 08:01  |  Dudka 19/12/07
      9.   POP Clickfool Dutch etc 08:17  |  shockcorridor 19/12/07
      10.   #1 - hudnas are that Islam has to offer 08:55  |  redmike 19/12/07
      11.   #9 - the `gang` are best ignored! 09:00  |  redmike 19/12/07
      12.   A low cost, coward`s way for the IDF powder puffs 09:40  |  Clickfool 19/12/07
      13.   Dayenu 09:44  |  ATLAS 19/12/07
      14.   They Didnt Want the Hudna. 10:07  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      15.   Well, Mr. Olmert and Mr. Burak I have news for you 10:17  |  Dutch 19/12/07
      16.   MUSLIM"Hudna"a joke from the sons of the Prophet to the infidels 10:31  |  PETER SM 19/12/07
      17.   shockcorridor and his/her sour grapes 10:52  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      18.   SM, expert on Islam 11:02  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      19.   A GRIM PROSPECT OF A GROUND ASSAULT 12:02  |  indrajaya 19/12/07
      20.   Israel has every right to fight terrorism, tooth and nail 12:09  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      21.   #18 yaakov is lost for words and lost alltogether 12:13  |  victor hardman 19/12/07
      22.   #12 the yellow streak and the british navy powder puffs 12:17  |  victor hardman 19/12/07
      23.   voice of treason or:listen to this antisemite 12:36  |  sitting&lying bull 19/12/07
      24.   the problem with Yaakov.... 13:01  |  horsehair 19/12/07
      25.   SULLIVAN Hudna for dummies 2 In a mosque in S.Africa 13:07  |  PETER SM 19/12/07
      26.   #20 Isnt That Cute! Presto another Yaakov 13:17  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      27.   you should have taken peace 13:23  |  jew 19/12/07
      28.   #15 dutch SINGS the same sad ONE note song 13:32  |  CK Tan 19/12/07
      29.   #20 indrajaya SQUAWKS prophecy with no REALITY check 13:33  |  CK Tan 19/12/07
      30.   Peter SM on .....where to begin? 13:45  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      31.   Jack Sullivan 13:56  |  Nik "Banned" Miller 19/12/07
      32.   Nik Banned Miller from Tel Aviv 14:19  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      33.   #9 re: clickfool et al. BRAVO!! YOU SAID IT BESTTER THAN I 14:24  |  Petra 19/12/07
      34.   # 18 Yaakov KNOXLEDGE? 14:28  |  Petra 19/12/07
      35.   Yaakov, let me ask you this.... 14:31  |  Bennie 19/12/07
      36.   horsh hair lol you`re gentle with fools, aren`t you? 14:32  |  Petra 19/12/07
      37.   Petra, that was deep, really profound 14:46  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      38.   Bennie in honest response to your question 14:48  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      39.   Yakov, a followup 15:03  |  Bennie 19/12/07
      40.   Moses: Or Moses ordering the annihilation of the Moabites, except 15:12  |  17 19/12/07
      41.   For Petra #33 15:23  |  Clickfool 19/12/07
      42.   12 Clicky sounds like Tokyo Rose to spook US Marines in WWll 15:45  |  The Equalizer 19/12/07
      43.   Ah, yes bennie, I thought so. Please take note 15:54  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      44.   All Israel is "Occupied Territory"! 15:59  |  Dav 19/12/07
      45.   17, excuse my misrepresentation of the Moabites 16:00  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      46.   horsehair and the problem with yaakov.commentary by petra 16:01  |  2b fair if disloyal. 19/12/07
      47.   Click: The "Victory" Maven! 16:03  |  Ambrose 19/12/07
      48.   # 45 Yaakov Sullivan 16:18  |  17 19/12/07
      49.   # 44 Dav - You apparently believe what you write... 16:20  |  17 19/12/07
      50.   Dav #44, thank you for your honesty 16:21  |  Boris 19/12/07
      51.   Yaakov again 16:22  |  Bennie 19/12/07
      52.   The question of moral and legal equivalency 16:25  |  Tosefta 19/12/07
      53.   say muslim,# 1 why would israel take a hudna,its the pals that 16:29  |  terrornator 19/12/07
      54.   Jack Sullivan 16:31  |  Nik "Banned" Miller 19/12/07
      55.   yaakov Re; Ruth 16:39  |  Yadu 19/12/07
      56.   clickfool and british superiority 16:44  |  utagawa 19/12/07
      57.   Like most from the Orthodox communit, bennie.... 16:52  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      58.   Nik Banned Miller 16:56  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      59.   Yadu and his literalism 17:01  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      60.   to Yaakov, in all sincerety 17:05  |  bennie 19/12/07
      61.   utagawa, on clickfool and the IDF 17:09  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      62.   #1 Muslim Hudna didn`t work last time 17:11  |  * BEN JABO 19/12/07
      63.   #12 Clickfool you fool 17:15  |  * BEN JABO 19/12/07
      64.   #52 Tosefta, but continuation of "armed struggle" hampers moving 17:23  |  Smadar 19/12/07
      65.   Benny, in all sincerity 17:24  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      66.   Jack Sullivan 17:41  |  Nik "Banned" Miller 19/12/07
      67.   #66 Nick "Banned" Miller 17:48  |  * BEN JABO 19/12/07
      68.   Whith terrorists you dont negotiate 17:48  |  TOMY 19/12/07
      69.   Nik Banned Miller, well, gee.... 17:54  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      70.   Smadar on stagnant situations #64 18:01  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07
      71.   The PA providing info on IJ to Israeli IDF 18:02  |  Phillies Wright 19/12/07
      72.   Yaakov, if you were sincere 18:03  |  Boris 19/12/07
      73.   to the illierate *BEN JABO on previous hudna 18:05  |  mohammed 19/12/07
      74.   Reality (Smadar #64) 18:07  |  Tosefta 19/12/07
      75.   Yaacov Sullivan 18:29  |  Mary P 19/12/07
      76.   #74 Tosefta, well if you are correct, then it`s up to the Israeli 18:40  |  Smadar 19/12/07
      77.   Mary P 75 Re: Sullivan 18:56  |  Bennie 19/12/07
      78.   #73 mohammed - Saudi Arabia 18:56  |  * BEN JABO 19/12/07
      79.   Mary, and my vicious, bile and vitrol 19:01  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/12/07