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Last update - 10:16 08/12/2007
He deserves some credit
By Yoel Marcus
Tags: peace process, Ehud Olmert 

The U.S. intelligence agencies have quite a long history of failures. In the 1970s, it failed to predict the shah's fall and the Khomeinist takeover in Iran. It didn't foresee the attack on the Twin Towers that Al-Qaida had been planning in the United States for years. It erred in its assessment of the nuclear and biological weapons that were supposedly hidden under Saddam Hussein's palaces in Iraq.

And in the wake of this particular misleading intelligence, President George W. Bush, who some say came into office looking for an opportunity to settle accounts with Saddam over the Iraqi leader's attempt to bump off his father, was pushed into invading Iraq. Four thousand U.S. soldiers have died, but America is still there. No atomic reactors were found, and no biological warheads were discovered collecting dust under Saddam's bed.

Now, as the West is quaking in its boots over the news that Iran is on the brink of manufacturing nuclear weapons, and Ahmadinejad has declared Israel his main target, a bomb of another kind has fallen on America and the whole world. An updated U.S. intelligence report has revealed that Iran is far from ready to produce a bomb. Ex-Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy has his doubts about that. Even if the information comes from an ally, Halevy told The New York Times, Israel has to rely on its own sources.
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Bush told Prime Minister Ehud Olmert about this surprising finding during a one-on-one meeting at Annapolis. But Olmert, no political tyro, told his confidantes that it doesn't matter to him what the U.S. report says. From his point of view, the Iranian threat remains the same - both in intent and in the prospect of it becoming a reality within a year or two. To paraphrase Golda Meir, Olmert believes that a 10 percent probability of Iran having the bomb is a 100 percent risk for Israel. He sees it as his duty to prepare for the moment Iran crosses the technological threshold.

The question is where Olmert will be at that time. According to Maariv's Ofer Shelach, Israeli history shows that corruption does not change voting patterns and that the allegations facing him will not topple Olmert. On the other hand, the sin of mismanaging the Second Lebanon War will hover over him in the same way the first Lebanon war hung over Ariel Sharon.

The difference between Olmert and Sharon is that Sharon was a celebrated general and defense minister who misled his prime minister, while Olmert, an inexperienced prime minister with a clown for defense minister was duped by Dan Halutz, a chief of staff who strutted around like God personified and led them straight into a surreal bloodbath.

From then on, in the eyes of most Israelis, Olmert was a "face begging for a fist," to quote an old Hungarian saying. But as a seasoned politician who knows all the tricks, with 30 years of experience under his belt, Olmert said what most of the people wanted to hear. He declared that he would follow Sharon's path of setting aside the dream of a Greater Israel and aim for an agreement with the Palestinian Authority.

Little by little, Olmert has also shown results for his work. He has kept up the friendship, dialogue and close coordination with Bush. He gave the green light for the Syrian raid, which went off without a hitch, for a change. He began talks with the PA leadership and helped Bush get the Annapolis summit off the ground. The fact that delegates from 40 countries showed up was an achievement for Olmert, too.

Considering that David Ben-Gurion was never invited to the White House, Olmert is almost part of the household, and he will soon be hosting Bush in Israel. There is some basis for the belief that in the last year of his presidency, Bush will make some important pledges to Israel that will also obligate the next administration.

The internship of new prime ministers in this country has always been problematic. The old-timers knew enough to follow the "will of the party." But Yitzhak Rabin messed up his first term and brought Likud to power. Benjamin Netanyahu, with the Western Wall tunnel and other embarrassments, quickly nosedived. Ehud Barak, with his Napoleonic manner and the failure of Camp David, which led to the second intifada, was beaten by a landslide of half a million votes.

Olmert didn't start off well. But aside from the fiasco of the Second Lebanon War and a series of criminal probes from his past dangling over him, he has not made any major blunder. As an arrogant hedonist, with his cigar and his Breitling watch, hobnobbing with the world's rich and famous, he is easy to badmouth. But he is striving to leave his mark as a prime minister with a peace agenda. And for that, he deserves some support and credit.
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  1.   Just as it is... 10:30  |  Esther 07/12/07
  2.   Israeli people, please don`t stab Olmert in the back..... 10:51  |  Swiss (Dino) 07/12/07
  3.   Some more thoughts, if I may... 11:53  |  Esther 07/12/07
  4.   I strongly disagree with Esther (Post No. 3) 12:19  |  Johnny Weintraub 07/12/07
  5.   Agreed, but for full credit, Olmert must brave the full course 12:41  |  Ivar 07/12/07
  6.   yes, mr. olmert deserves some credit... 12:46  |  saul a. readner 07/12/07
  7.   Great, how Marcus combines 13:03  |  Martha Hoelzermann 07/12/07
  8.   Credit for Leading Israel to looming Disaster 13:05  |  Rafi 07/12/07
  9.   Re Johnny #4 13:11  |  Esther 07/12/07
  10.   olmert is an historical fool who refuses to examine the past per 13:19  |  victor hardman 07/12/07
  11.   IRAN VS ISRAEL: BOTH MINORITY AGAINST EACH OTHER 13:30  |  indrajaya 07/12/07
  12.   #7 14:15  |  GPWS1 07/12/07
  13.   Taking "Side" 14:23  |  GPWS1 07/12/07
  14.   One could say the same 15:16  |  Mark Lincoln 07/12/07
  15.   Olmert :"...he has not made any major blunder." 15:42  |  bat yam 07/12/07
  16.   marc lincoln 16:07  |  saul a. readner 07/12/07
  17.   Indrajaya 16:08  |  Jason, Ph.D. 07/12/07
  18.   swiss (dino) and his "stab with a dagger" 16:19  |  scallywag 07/12/07
  19.   olmert knows how to leave peace as well as antiochus epiphanes 16:32  |  yahn goodey 07/12/07
  20.   What Good Is A Car, If You Can`t Drive It? 16:38  |  Tony Anthony 07/12/07
  21.   That`s genuinely funny. 16:39  |  Fred Michaelsberg 07/12/07
  22.   No Credit for the Hermit.! ...Cut & Print !! 17:01  |  Stephen. 07/12/07
  23.   indrajaya and "peaceful iran" 17:01  |  scallywag 07/12/07
  24.   Olmert, the good politician and non-statesman 17:41  |  Tosefta 07/12/07
  25.   A disgustingly misleading article 18:41  |  Michael N 07/12/07
  26.   # 17, JASON, PhD 18:43  |  indrajaya 07/12/07
  27.   Does Israel really need "great statemen" as leaders 19:22  |  Voice of Reason 07/12/07
  28.   # 18 scallywag 19:31  |  Swiss (Dino) 07/12/07
  29.   tony anthony 19:43  |  saul a. readner 07/12/07
  30.   Indrajaya #26 20:00  |  Jason, Ph.D. 07/12/07
  31.   MichaelN #25 20:20  |  Yariv 07/12/07
  32.   I Had A Dream 23:07  |  Veni Vidi 07/12/07
  33.   swiss (dino) again - 2. try 23:17  |  scallywag 07/12/07
  34.   ON A COLLIAION COURSE WITH G-D AND HIS WORD ?? 23:18  |  Bill 07/12/07
  35.   bill 23:33  |  saul a. readner 07/12/07
  36.   To # 11 I HAD A DREAM. 00:10  |  Veni Vidi 08/12/07
  37.   # SAUL 00:17  |  Bill 08/12/07
  38.   Michael 25, it`s Marcus who said US intelligence failed in 9-11 00:37  |  New Yorker 08/12/07
  39.   #31 Yariv 00:51  |  Michael N 08/12/07
  40.   Mark Lincon still in the haze I see 02:12  |  Danite 08/12/07
  41.   Swiss dino or Mr Know it All 02:15  |  Danite 08/12/07
  42.   Tosefta - things are relative 02:54  |  Mark Lincoln 08/12/07
  43.   Danite - as a resident 02:59  |  Mark Lincoln 08/12/07
  44.   When setting a trap 03:05  |  Mark Lincoln 08/12/07
  45.   # 30, JASON, PhD 03:27  |  indrajaya 08/12/07
  46.   Re: Olmert`s Drive to Achieve.......Peace in the ME 05:32  |  Smadar 08/12/07
  47.   Olmert will leave his mark as the destroyer of the Jewish Homelan 07:19  |  Genuine Tosefta 08/12/07
  48.   Mark Lincoln 07:43  |  Danite 08/12/07
  49.   #2 - Dino, you probably mean well but you have no inherent grasp 07:58  |  redmike 08/12/07
  50.   # 41 Danite, or Mr. Talking the talk, but not walking the walk 09:24  |  Swiss (Dino) 08/12/07
  51.   # 38 New Yorker- no arguments 09:28  |  Michael N 08/12/07
  52.   A Marcus pattern 09:38  |  Michael N 08/12/07
  53.   # 49 redmike 09:40  |  Swiss (Dino) 08/12/07
  54.   Olmert did it! 09:56  |  Alicia 08/12/07
  55.   #50 dino needs a history compendium for xmas 10:28  |  victor hardman 08/12/07
  56.   indrajaya 11:35  |  saul a. readner 08/12/07
  57.   swiss re: redmike 11:39  |  saul a. readner 08/12/07
  58.   # 55 "Merry Christmas", victor-Pauli, "merry Christmas" to you... 11:46  |  Swiss (Dino) 08/12/07
  59.   bill, once more 11:49  |  saul a. readner 08/12/07
  60.   #58dino and sunny helvetia not for xmas 12:06  |  victor hardman 08/12/07
  61.   # 57 saul a. readner 12:37  |  Swiss (Dino) 08/12/07
  62.   # 60 victor (Pauli) hartman 13:17  |  Swiss (Dino) 08/12/07
  63.   Joker Marcus 13:37  |  Butch 08/12/07
  64.   swiss, once more 14:44  |  saul a. readner 08/12/07
  65.   marcus on olmert`s achievements 15:08  |  geroge 08/12/07
  66.   #61 Swiss (Dino) excellent post which constantly needs to be 15:34  |  Smadar 08/12/07
  67.   The American Halutz helped Danite 16:47  |  Mark Lincoln 08/12/07
  68.   #67mark strives for peace and finds war ? 17:03  |  victor hardman 08/12/07
  69.   want`s to leave his mark??? 17:51  |  ljf-canada 08/12/07
  70.   # 64 saul a. readner 18:02  |  Swiss (Dino) 08/12/07
  71.   # 66 Smadar 18:11  |  Swiss (Dino) 08/12/07
  72.   #70dino desperately needs that compendium 18:14  |  victor hardman 08/12/07
  73.   Olmert deserves nothing except pack his bags and leave 18:45  |  Kipperraes 08/12/07
  74.   OLmert 18:48  |  bear 08/12/07
  75.   it`s no 2 from Joe 18:53  |  Jojo 08/12/07
  76.   Olmert must go 19:11  |  Frank 08/12/07
  77.   Re geroge #65 19:13  |  Esther 08/12/07
  78.   Peace in our times 19:14  |  Roberto 08/12/07
  79.   Re #72...The "Sage" from Montana 19:16  |  Esther 08/12/07
  80.   He deserves to be.... 20:04  |  Ralph 08/12/07
  81.   Stout rope and a tall tree