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del.icio.us Digg It!  new Not the best intelligence By Avner Cohen Tags: Iran  WASHINGTON - It is difficult to recall a precedent in which a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), whose unclassified findings total only 2 to 3 percent of the full classified document, led to a political earthquake like the one created by the release of the NIE about Iran's nuclear ambitions this week. Such unclassified reports are a relatively new phenomenon in Washington, and they should be welcomed. But they are problematic when they involve a document that does not clarify in any way how and why its authors reached their conclusions, yet presumptuously attempts to provide decision-makers with public political advice. Above all, this NIE - which apparently came after months of internal discussions by all 16 organizations that comprise the American intelligence community - has struck a fatal blow to the administration's diplomatic efforts to bring sanctions against Iran. Advertisement The document reflects the American intelligence community's aspiration to reassert its professional and intellectual independence. It states, to both the American public and an international audience, that the intelligence fiasco that led the United States to the Iraq war will not be duplicated in the case of Iran. The intelligence community is making it clear that it will not countenance abuse of its own products. Moreover, it is asserting its unwillingness to be led to war again by a small group of neoconservative ideologues who have commandeered the country's foreign and security policies and distorted intelligence findings to serve their ideology. Some in Washington claim that Condoleezza Rice is the one who believed - and apparently persuaded the president - that it was important to go public with the new NIE, even if only partially, in order to prevent the administration from taking military action against Iran. None of these explanations, which probably contain some grain of truth, can account for the political miscalculation of releasing the material now. In fact, military action against Iran was not on the agenda for the near future, but the NIE clearly has stuck a spanner in the works regarding sanctions on Iran. The community of nuclear experts in Washington, including many of us who oppose military action against Iran, were shocked at the methodologically shallow, confusing and unprofessional way that many of the NIE's findings were formulated. Some believe that the intelligence officials, with Rice's assistance, have taken upon themselves the patriotic task of saving Bush from himself. In any case, this document's flaws and political naivete are unprecedented. For example, the report notes that Iran suspended or halted the working groups building the bomb, but creates the false impression that this was the main component of Iran's nuclear weapons development program. The report obfuscates the reality of Iran's massive nuclear effort, in particular its enrichment program. Instead, it states that since autumn 2003, Iran has made no continuous effort to manufacture nuclear weapons. Even if the revelation that weaponization was halted in 2003 is genuine (and not intentionally misleading on Iran's part), the document is puzzling, because it is known that manufacturing and stockpiling fissionable material determine how close a country is to the bomb. Furthermore, the public report does not state how much nuclear engineering progress Iran had made through 2003; the suspension may have been one aspect of some form of coordination between this activity and the production of fissionable material. In general, the unclassified NIE gives no hint as to how and why American intelligence has decided to ascribe such a high degree of credibility to this finding. The report states with legalistic caution that Iran apparently could amass enough fissionable material to build a nuclear weapon between 2009 and 2015, if it were to decide to do so. To all this is added an (unexplained) note stating that the earlier date is not practical. However, to make such a general statement, it is not necessary to amass costly secret intelligence material; it is enough to read the documents of the International Atomic Energy Commission. As an intelligence assessment, this is a vague statement of no value to decision-makers. The NIE says nothing about critical matters touching on understanding the Iranian nuclear program. It does not report what the American intelligence community knows or does not know about what motivates Iran's grandiose nuclear plans, especially the enrichment program; how national decisions in Iran are made about the nuclear program; what the connection is between Iran's nuclear and missile programs (since the costly missile program has no logical purpose without a connection to nuclear warheads); or how external political pressure can influence Iran's nuclear activity. It is understandable that the report reveals nothing directly regarding U.S. intelligence's capability to quickly pinpoint significant developments and changes in Iran's nuclear program. But indirectly, it is clear that American capability is feeble in this critical realm. The report itself provides proof of this. If one assumes that the American intelligence community recognized only last summer that some four years ago, Iran suspended or halted its work on weaponization, it is clear that the United States' aptitude in the realm of intelligence is suboptimal. If the American intelligence community seeks to provide the public with an understanding of Iran's nuclear program, this report proved flimsy. Dr. Avner Cohen, author of "Israel and the Bomb," is a senior research fellow at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington. Bookmark to del.icio.us Foreign correspondents Police probe 3 Israeli journalists suspected of unauthorized travel to enemy states. Petrol protest Gaza gas station owners refuse to accept reduced fuel supplies from Israel.

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