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Last update - 16:16 04/12/2007
Iran nuke study pulls military option off the table
By Shmuel Rosner and Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: U.S., Iran
While the U.S. intelligence services should be given credit for trying to correct their mistake, they failed to explain how they reached their new conclusions regarding Iran's nuclear program.

WASHINGTON - "An intelligence consensus is difficult to challenge with new data," wrote Judge Richard Posner in his book "Preventing Surprise Attack," which deals with the necessary reforms in American intelligence services post-9/11.

Intelligence officers, like anyone else, "are reluctant to change their minds" and admit they made a mistake or were caught by surprise. So the U.S. intelligence services should be given credit for trying to correct their mistake. Meanwhile, it should be remembered that correcting a mistake with another mistake makes it all the more difficult to change one's mind the next time.

Israel's ambassador to Washington, Sallai Meridor, spent the weekend warning about Iran's nuclear program. Meanwhile, Israel knew about the report that was to be released, but Meridor warned in no uncertain terms that "time is running out." Either way, the official report blew up in his face: Time is not running out, the Iranians are not making progress, and Israel may come to be seen as a panic-stricken rabbit. (Click here to read the report)
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The debate surrounding this report's conclusions will be substantial, and many will assume that its authors have failed in gathering or interpreting the intelligence out there. A psychological interpretation will also be thrown into the pot, discounting the conclusions. The same intelligence that warned of Saddam Hussein's non-conventional arsenal is now making the opposite, deadly error in relation to Iran. The Americans will find themselves surprised like they did when they learned of the Indian and Pakistani bombs.

Professionals will now argue passionately, continuing the debates between Israel's assessment (an Iranian bomb in 2009-2010) and the American one (a bomb in 2012-2013).

The Americans failed to explain Monday how they reached their new conclusions. As such, the general public will find it difficult to decide who is right. Maybe in the future, when there suddenly really is a bomb in play, or maybe not  a decision on this can be final. Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence has adopted the "most severe" approach, but the American decision maker is only affected by the Americans writing the assessment.

It does not really matter. However successful or flawed this report may be, there is a new, dramatic reality, in all aspects of the struggle against the Iranian bomb: The military option, American or Israeli, is off the table, indefinitely.

Related articles:
  • Study: U.S., Israel should begin planning strike on Iran nuclear sites
  • Bush warns nuclear Iran could spur 'World War III'
  • MI: Iran will cross nuclear threshold by 2009
  • Chronology of Iran's nuclear program
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      1.   LOLZ @ THE WARMONGERS 00:48  |  POP 04/12/07
      2.   This makes Israel and neo-cons look like fools 00:56  |  Wendy 04/12/07
      3.   No Reason for War 01:01  |  Mark of Lewiston 04/12/07
      4.   This story is a ruse 01:55  |  FlickCool 04/12/07
      5.   The panic-stricken rabbit 02:06  |  Fritz Teich 04/12/07
      6.   Another Embarrassing Hit on American/Israel Intelligence Agencies 02:13  |  Mr. Knowitall 04/12/07
      7.   what we know, and what we do not know 02:19  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/12/07
      8.   Mass Media is part of the problem. 02:26  |  Geo 04/12/07
      9.   off the table 02:47  |  Shmuelshachor 04/12/07
      10.   bombing iran 02:56  |  schafe82 04/12/07
      11.   Our leaders have the same blindness Chamberlain had 03:02  |  Moshe Benzaquen 04/12/07
      12.   iran vs israel and america 03:04  |  otiwa ogede 04/12/07
      13.   WHY USA & ISRAEL ALREDY LOOSE BEFORE WAR AT THIS TIME? 03:05  |  Ron Schmidt 04/12/07
      14.   we knew 03:28  |  ari kaplan 04/12/07
      15.   Rusia and China sudden posture change 03:30  |  Andrei 04/12/07
      16.   In contradiction to the experts` analyses 03:52  |  Shalom Freedman 04/12/07
      17.   The US is no longer accepting APAC`s misinformation. 03:55  |  ManintheMiddle 04/12/07
      18.   A GOOD NEWS, THE US IS AFRAID TO ATTACK 04:02  |  indrajaya 04/12/07
      19.   israek is Scrowed 04:02  |  BAM 04/12/07
      20.   Mossad over CIA any day 04:36  |  bernard ross 04/12/07
      21.   Iran`s nuclear ambitions 04:37  |  dana b 04/12/07
      22.   Wrong assessment... 04:45  |  Webster 04/12/07
      23.   New Analysis Based on Terrorism and Oil 05:26  |  Yoram 04/12/07
      24.   Bomb Iran - why take chances 06:11  |  AlexK 04/12/07
      25.   Lets play safe if they dont need it then lets bomb it 06:24  |  Kipperraes 04/12/07
      26.   Who cares ... 06:36  |  Easy 04/12/07
      27.   Nothing to worry, it is all in good hands 06:47  |  Analyst 04/12/07
      28.   Thank God 07:14  |  Jason_M 04/12/07
      29.   ...and our ostrich heads in the sand... 07:27  |  Fortuna Benmayor 04/12/07
      30.   Iran nukes 08:32  |  indrajaya 04/12/07
      31.   POP: Are you connected to reality? 08:41  |  indrajaya 04/12/07
      32.   Iran nukes 08:45  |  Abu zuzu 04/12/07
      33.   Ron Paul was right then... 08:46  |  Andrew 04/12/07
      34.   Misdirection 08:51  |  Robert 04/12/07
      35.   MAN in theMIDDLE.So AIPAC does NOT rule the US after all? 09:20  |  PETER S.M. 04/12/07
      36.   29 Robert in Capetown - Recheck Your Sources 09:45  |  Mark of Lewiston 04/12/07
      37.   Since when? 09:50  |  007 04/12/07
      38.   American intelligence 09:59  |  Robin 04/12/07
      39.   Well as long as The USA pushed off dealing with Iran ... 10:04  |  Jew 04/12/07
      40.   #35 PeterSM 10:13  |  Labhras 04/12/07
      41.   Here is an idea from outside the box 10:25  |  ideas 04/12/07
      42.   American "intelligence" also said that Iraq had WMD 10:27  |  Zev 04/12/07
      43.   # 16 shalom 10:35  |  Axel 04/12/07
      44.   Indrajaya, is Mohammed a Teddy Bear? 10:47  |  FOX 04/12/07
      45.   For Peter SM # 35 10:49  |  Clickfool 04/12/07
      46.   Mark #3 talking from both orifices 10:53  |  FOX 04/12/07
      47.   Moslem bragging and Bush`s screw-ups. 10:54  |  S 04/12/07
      48.   Mark #36 11:40  |  Robert 04/12/07
      49.   #24 AlexK of Boston. What was that? 11:48  |  Maureen Ann 04/12/07
      50.   I SEE right through this ply 12:01  |  VIPER 04/12/07
      51.   #13, RON SCHMIDT, i`ve always said it too 12:05  |  VIPER 04/12/07
      52.   Why are many Israelis and friends of Israel in mourning? 12:58  |  Chris Linthwaite 04/12/07
      53.   Aluf Benn has stated in a private conversation 13:08  |  Nachmanides 04/12/07
      54.   Sham on Tel Aviv and Washington then 13:25  |  Kam 04/12/07
      55.   Nuclear Arms 13:36  |  Varsi Padayachee 04/12/07
      56.   Welcome news, if true - strong pressure did work. 13:48  |  17 04/12/07
      57.   # Chris Linthwaite "Why are many Israelis mourning" 14:14  |  H 04/12/07
      58.   Try to avoid the war by any means 14:43  |  Peace Activist 04/12/07
      59.   #57 H 14:48  |  Chris Linthwaite 04/12/07
      60.   #11 Moshe Benzaquen 14:50  |  guy 04/12/07
      61.   no apitite for war 15:53  |  sam 04/12/07
      62.   no apitite for war 15:54  |  sam 04/12/07
      63.   IF 16:45  |  The Teacher/Instruct 04/12/07
      64.   " War Games of the Future"! 17:14  |  Stephen. 04/12/07
      65.   Chris Linthwaite #59 17:40  |  S 04/12/07
      66.   46 FOX - I am NOT Mark Lincoln 17:44  |  Mark of Lewiston 04/12/07
      67.   The tragedy of this report... 17:55  |  another physicist 04/12/07
      68.   #59 Chris Linthwaite In that case 17:56  |  H 04/12/07
      69.   #65 S 18:23  |  Chris Linthwaite 04/12/07
      70.   #68 H 18:28  |  Chris Linthwaite 04/12/07
      71.   Chris` conception of "country of peace" 18:36  |  FOX 04/12/07
      72.   iran nuke study 18:37  |  orouborous 04/12/07
      73.   #71 Fox point taken 19:02  |  Chris Linthwaite 04/12/07
      74.   #70 Chris Linthwaite 19:13  |  H 04/12/07
      75.   Chris, what do the Brits call their toilets? 19:43  |  FOX 04/12/07
      76.   At Least We Try and Get It Right 19:44  |  Chas 04/12/07
      77.   Mark of Lewiston #66 19:53  |  FOX 04/12/07
      78.   The NIE and reality 20:21  |  Mark Lincoln 04/12/07
      79.   Do I trust the estimate? (poll question) 20:27  |  Mark Lincoln 04/12/07
      80.   For the incorrect Fox # 75 21:18  |  Clickfool 04/12/07
      81.