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U.S.: Iran halted nuclear weapons development in 2003
By Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondent, Haaretz Service and The Associated Press
Tags: nuclear, U.S., intelligence 

Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program in the fall of 2003 and the program remains on hold, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment released Monday. (Click here to read the report)

"Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005," states the summary of the report.

The findings are a change from two years ago, when U.S. intelligence agencies believed Iran was determined to develop a nuclear capability and was continuing its weapons development program.
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U.S. intelligence officials pointed to the findings as evidence that international pressure on Iran was working. "It suggests that Iran is susceptible to diplomatic pressure," the official said.

"This is good news in that the U.S. policy coupled with the policies and actions of those who have been our partners appear to have had some success. Iran seems to have been pressured," one of the officials said. "Given that good news we don't want to relax. We want to keep those pressures up."

The National Intelligence Estimate, which represents the consensus view of all 16 American spy agencies, states that Tehran's ultimate intentions about gaining a nuclear weapon remain unclear, but that Iran's "decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs," the New York Times reported.

Despite the suspension of its weapons program, Tehran may ultimately be difficult to dissuade from developing a nuclear bomb because Iran believes such a weapon would give it leverage to achieve its national security and foreign policy goals, the assessment concluded.

Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell decided last month that the key judgments of NIEs should as a rule not be declassified and released. The intelligence officials said an exception was made in this case because the last assessment of Iran's nuclear program in 2005 has been influential in public debate about U.S. policy toward Iran and needed to be updated to reflect the latest findings.

To develop a nuclear weapon Iran needs a warhead design, a certain amount of fissile material, and a delivery vehicle such as a missile. The intelligence agencies now believe Iran halted design work four years ago and as of mid-2007 had not restarted it.

But Iran is continuing enrich uranium for its civilian nuclear reactors. That leaves open the possibility the fissile material could be diverted to covert nuclear sites to make enough highly enriched uranium to make a bomb.

The amount of fissile material Iran has is closely linked to when it can produce a weapon. Even if the country went all out with present enrichment capability, it is unlikely to have enough until 2010 at the earliest, the officials said. The State Department's Intelligence and Research office believes the earliest likely time it would have enough highly enriched uranium would be 2013. But all agencies concede Iran may not have sufficient enriched uranium until after 2015.

Iran would not be capable of technically producing and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015, the report states. But ultimately it has the technical and industrial capacity to build a bomb, if it decides to do so, the intelligence agencies found.

According to Israel's intelligence assessments, Iran could produce a nuclear bomb as early as 2010. The difference in the American and Israeli assessments is derived not from different information but rather different approaches - Israel focuses on the worst case scenario, while the U.S. approach assumes that, once acquiring the necessary technology, Iran will still have difficulty implementing it in order to produce the bomb.

This national intelligence estimate was originally due in the spring of 2007 but was delayed because the agencies wanted more confidence their findings were accurate, given the problems with a 2002 intelligence estimate of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program. They also got a late influx of new data that caused changes in their findings.

"There was a very rigorous scrub using all the trade craft available, using the lessons of 2002," a senior official said.

At the White House, National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said the findings confirm that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a serious problem.

"The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically without the use of force as the Administration has been trying to do," Hadley said. "And it suggests that the president has the right strategy: intensified international pressure along with a willingness to negotiate a solution that serves Iranian interests, while ensuring that the world will never have to face a nuclear armed Iran."

"The bottom line is this: for that strategy to succeed, the international community has to turn up the pressure on Iran with diplomatic isolation, United Nations sanctions, and with other financial pressure and Iran has to decide it wants to negotiate a solution," Hadley added.

Related articles:
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  • Bush warns nuclear Iran could spur 'World War III'
  • MI: Iran will cross nuclear threshold by 2009
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      1.   Oh darn! 19:42  |  mrmcgoo 03/12/07
      2.   Err, why make this public? 19:56  |  SystemF 03/12/07
      3.   Which officials? Which agency? 19:56  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 03/12/07
      4.   every week, we hear a different Iran nuclear forcast 19:59  |  Richard S 03/12/07
      5.   LET WORLD INVESTIGATE ISRAEL`S PROGRAM 20:09  |  TrippleJump 03/12/07
      6.   Spin 20:09  |  Misha 03/12/07
      7.   Bush lied once again about intelligence! 20:15  |  MARK 03/12/07
      8.   senior U.S. intelligence officials said Monday? Really! 20:17  |  Manfred 03/12/07
      9.   mrmcgoo 20:17  |  vik 03/12/07
      10.   Livni knew this and accidentally leaked it out. 20:19  |  Mark 03/12/07
      11.   how convenient 20:21  |  tony 03/12/07
      12.   Sounds fishy as it`s almost 2008 20:23  |  Gili 03/12/07
      13.   If True, Time To Lower The Volume 20:30  |  dyinglikeflies 03/12/07
      14.   Iran, the oil giant, and nukes 20:34  |  Mathew 03/12/07
      15.   Good News for Iran 20:34  |  Christian 03/12/07
      16.   Catch-22? 20:37  |  Diznar 03/12/07
      17.   Iran, the oil giant, and nukes 20:40  |  Mathew 03/12/07
      18.   9/11 was an Inside Job, Bin ladin is also dead 20:44  |  Mark 03/12/07
      19.   Frielichs answer 20:45  |  Chris Linthwaite 03/12/07
      20.   Sigh. What will we do for a war now? 20:47  |  Colin Wright 03/12/07
      21.   US says Iran halted Nuke Weapons Dev.in 2003 20:50  |  Millie 03/12/07
      22.   LOLZ @ Israel + US WARMONGERS 20:52  |  POP 03/12/07
      23.   #3, all of them. 20:52  |  Yoni Gross 03/12/07
      24.   Missiles? Check. Bomb design? Check. Enriched uranium? Soon. 20:53  |  David Samson 03/12/07
      25.   MAYBE BUSH IS TRYING TO "DIVEST" 20:56  |  Robert 03/12/07
      26.   To Mathew from Atlanta 21:00  |  Greg 03/12/07
      27.   More American BS 21:00  |  Frank 03/12/07
      28.   To Diznar 21:02  |  Greg 03/12/07
      29.   Time to hold politicians accountable? 21:04  |  Greg USA 03/12/07
      30.   #8 Manfred 21:06  |  Chris Linthwaite 03/12/07
      31.   Who can believe ANYTHING we are told 21:07  |  Clickfool 03/12/07
      32.   " The Fiddlers Fix Is In"! 21:07  |  Stephen. 03/12/07
      33.   #8 Doubting Manfred - Full Text from the Dir. of National Securty 21:08  |  Pablo B 03/12/07
      34.   Boy does this sound familiar 21:15  |  Jerremiah 03/12/07
      35.   #3 Ovadiah - Dir. of Nat. Intel. Mike McConnell 21:16  |  Pablo B 03/12/07
      36.   trust me, I am a politician 21:18  |  Iranian-American 03/12/07
      37.   The US has been wrong twice before 21:20  |  B 03/12/07
      38.   Crap Report 21:23  |  Brod 03/12/07
      39.   Well Well Well 21:24  |  Paul Wood 03/12/07
      40.   #6 Misha - goto the dni website and look at the Full Text 21:32  |  Pablo B 03/12/07
      41.   Do they. don`t they. Will they, Won`t they? 21:36  |  H 03/12/07
      42.   THE GREAT LOSER US INTELLIGENCE 21:37  |  Iskander 03/12/07
      43.   Bomb Iran Anyways 21:44  |  Schlomo Goldberg 03/12/07
      44.   Who is stupider? The US Govt or the press? 21:53  |  Joe Sittizen 03/12/07
      45.   Oh golly, no war with Iran, geez! 21:56  |  ballistic 03/12/07
      46.   #18 Say Mark 21:57  |  ballistic 03/12/07
      47.   Bring Iran Back to the Fold 21:58  |  Jane 03/12/07
      48.   no nuclear program? 21:58  |  yeah right 03/12/07
      49.   How sad for Israel 22:01  |  Michael N 03/12/07
      50.   Iran still looks pretty busy to me 22:04  |  Efox 03/12/07
      51.   Mis - Assesmment ! 22:05  |  Henry 03/12/07
      52.   #9 you`re over the line.... 22:05  |  EA 03/12/07
      53.   re: Mark 22:05  |  Efox 03/12/07
      54.   Halted, really?! 22:07  |  Ari 03/12/07
      55.   Chris Linthwaite 22:12  |  rich 03/12/07
      56.   This report is as stupid and naive !!! 22:19  |  Moshe Benzaquen 03/12/07
      57.   #55 Rich 22:32  |  Chris Linthwaite 03/12/07
      58.   Oh,no! Now we can`t attack Iran and kill thousands! What a big... 22:33  |  Toronto`s Finest 03/12/07
      59.   #56 Relax Moshe 22:35  |  ballistic 03/12/07
      60.   To Moshe Benzaquen 22:36  |  Greg 03/12/07
      61.   See HERE for TEXT OF REPORT 22:37  |  POP 03/12/07
      62.   Bush scares me... 22:39  |  Greg 03/12/07
      63.   It`s all Clinton`s fault! 22:39  |  W 03/12/07
      64.   Oil at 100$ barrel. They make enough money. Why would they halt? 22:43  |  Aounist 03/12/07
      65.   US Intelligence??? 22:43  |  Major R 03/12/07
      66.   This makes Israel and neo-cons look like FOOLS 22:46  |  Wendy 03/12/07
      67.   # 8 Need you ask 22:58  |  Outsider 03/12/07
      68.   nothing but lies 23:00  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/12/07
      69.   This is bad news for Israel and warmongers.. 23:02  |  John 03/12/07
      70.   BiN Ladin died. This was reported in 2001 23:06  |  Mark 03/12/07
      71.   #56 Moshe Benzquen 23:09  |  Chris Linthwaite 03/12/07
      72.   The Government Version of 9/11 is a lie! 23:09  |  Mark 03/12/07
      73.   And we all know how good US intelligence is,right? 23:09  |  Nemesis 03/12/07
      74.   This is why people want the truth of 9/11 23:14  |  Mark 03/12/07
      75.   It May Be Up To Israel Alone 23:20  |  Steve 03/12/07
      76.   Regardless of Israel 23:24  |  christoph 03/12/07
      77.   #34 Oh Golly, BULListic is so concerned 23:34  |  * BEN JABO 03/12/07
      78.   Paranoia / part I 23:35  |  Bob 03/12/07
      79.