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Inside Intel / Shooting down the compliments to the air force

By Yossi Melman

Tags: Israel Air Force, Lebanon

Even the most severe critics in Israel, who believe the Second Lebanon War was a huge failure, readily acknowledge the achievements of the Israel Air Force, especially on the first day of fighting, when it destroyed Hezbollah's long-range missiles.

"What success?" says William Arkin decisively. "It was a fabulous choreography to nowhere. Not only did the Israelis underestimate the Syrian missiles, but the Israeli commanders and politicians overestimated the 'shock and awe' impact. In 1991, U.S. targeters and commanders thought they won the war within minutes of their opening salvos as well; they even used similar rhetoric. No war is won in 34 minutes, but if one believes it is, one thinks that there is something to attack that will achieve the goal."

"Shock and awe" is a strategy concept referring to the considerable impact that a surprise strike has, carried out efficiently and with great power, shattering the enemy almost to the point of paralysis, and eventually is supposed to lead to his defeat. Arkin, a respected military analyst whose views make it into the Washington Post and the New York Times, notes that in the first moments of the war, its planners and commanders thought they had won via the air assault. "The 34-minute operation was a failure because Israel did not even try to kill the Hezbollah leadership when it maybe, maybe had a chance."

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Too many targets

Arkin has just published "Divining Victory: Airpower in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War," which was released by the U.S. Air Force Air University publishing house in Maxwell, Alabama. The publisher is significant like a stamp of approval from the U.S. Air Force.

Arkin spoke with Israeli defense officials and officers and with Hezbollah commanders and Lebanese officials, toured sites in Lebanon that Israel bombed and conducted a confidential analysis of IAF aerial photos of targets and of others from commercial satellites.

Arkin says: "Airpower tends to lose the information war because its very effectiveness and efficiency compress destruction so significantly. Having said that though, there is absolutely no evidence that pursuing ground operations with the same objectives are less destructive. This is a bizarre argument perpetrated by airpower haters and amateur analysts. Even in the case of cluster bombs in southern Lebanon, it is clear that ground systems - MLRS [multiple launch rocket systems] and artillery - are responsible for the preponderance of the damage and long-term harm."

In his assessment, the Israeli failure stems among other things from an obsession with everything related to censorship, field security and information control that even exceeds what the Americans do; this led to the data and information distributed being neither consistent nor accurate. But Hezbollah ran a well-oiled machine of information warfare.

Arkin concluded, from visiting sites and the photos, that Israel bombed too many sites from the air and bombed the wrong targets. Potentially some of the bombing was appropriate, but Israel intentionally launched an air war whose aim was the punishment and destruction of the people and the government of Lebanon. That is a harsh determination.

"Perhaps Israel deluded itself into thinking that every house and every structure that was hit in South Lebanon and in Beirut was associated with Hezbollah, but the truth is that from a military perspective, the strikes are less impressive that what the war's planners and its commanders sought to achieve, and much more destructive from a political perspective."

Doesn't the use of airpower usually cause heavy civilian casualties and consequently, in effect, anyone who uses it will be defeated in the propaganda war, in the battle for public opinion?

"The use of airpower does indeed tend to lead to a loss in the information war, because it is so effective and causes so much and such significant destruction. But, on the other hand, there is no proof that the use of ground forces does not lead to similar destruction. The ones who make the claim that appears in the question are mainly those who are hostile in general to military force and its use. It is a delusional claim. Clearly ground-weapons like missiles, artillery and cluster bombs are responsible for most of the destruction caused in South Lebanon.

"I'm one of the biggest believers in the air force as the best possible instrument in wars, but my basic claim is that Israel used this force in an ineffective way that achieved the opposite results. I don't think that the Israel Defense Forces wants to argue that the destruction in Beirut and the attacks on bridges are the best we can come up with, nor in hindsight can it really that the argue that destruction of Hezbollah's missiles was much of an achievement when barely a year later they are back.

"Israel used airpower last year not only because the political authorities wanted to avoid any occupation and long-term 'commitment' to Lebanon but also because the ground forces weren't ready to immediately undertake an operation."

Yugoslavia as an example

What could the IAF have done differently?

"Bombing less shouldn't be seen as weakness. We shouldn't be so in awe of the reach of airpower that we lose sight of its effect. I understand why Israel bombed bridges and airfield runways and other 'conventional' targets; they are lawful and relatively safe. But military strategies should not be developed nor mirror the prosecutorial approaches of the media, the UN or the human rights community.

"And Israel did not achieve its objectives in Lebanon."

But the U.S. and NATO used similar methods involving airpower in the wars in Yugoslavia and Afghanistan.

"True, but they did achieve their objectives in the two countries, mainly in Yugoslavia, where their accomplishments are more prominent: the installation of democracy, and the extradition of the leader, Slobodan Milosevic, to the International Court in The Hague. All of this was achieved after systematic air combat that lasted 78 days. After a while it was no longer important what targets were attacked. What was important was the fact that the battle went on continuously and systematically. The deciding factor there was not the targets attacked, but the ones that were not attacked. Of course, even in Yugoslavia, there were also moments when the success in achieving the objective of the battle seemed elusive. It happened when the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was bombed, and in incidents where civilians were killed.

"If the attack in Lebanon had happened along the lines of the attack in Yugoslavia, the IDF could have achieved better things than the UN Security Council Resolution to post an expanded Unifil force on the border, without creating a new generation of future enemies. It could have done so if it had persisted in the battle, exercised its military power with greater efficiency and struck fewer civilians."

And if Israel learns the lessons of the war in Lebanon and uses its air force following the model of the attack in Yugoslavia, will it be able to succeed in an attack against Iran's nuclear installations?

"No. Israel has no hope of mounting any sort of sustained military operation against Iran given the distances involved.

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1.	I agree on one aspect	03:57	\|	Ron	30/11/07

2.	William Arkin is a big-mouthed ex Greenpeacenik	05:03	\|	Fortuna Benmayor	30/11/07

3.	Arafat would have a hard time establishing his state on the Moon	05:10	\|	Jake	30/11/07

4.	Yugoslavia as an example??	05:21	\|	Jake	30/11/07

5.	mother of all terrorist	05:24	\|	Palestenian	30/11/07

6.	It`s not a matter if distance from Iran.	05:33	\|	Fortuna Benmayor	30/11/07

7.	The IAF shine against undefended civilian targets	05:49	\|	Natallie Durson	30/11/07

8.	#6 Fortuna Benmayor	06:17	\|	Franco	30/11/07

9.	A bit more about arkins (to add to Fortuna B)	06:42	\|	CK Tan	30/11/07

10.	why doeshaaretz love Arkin? Same reason it loves	06:48	\|	CK Tan	30/11/07

11.	Any 3 yr old could have told you Lebanon was a failure	07:29	\|	USA A OK	30/11/07

12.	why doeshaaretz love Arkin? Same reason it loves	07:43	\|	CK Tan	30/11/07

13.	Airpower	08:08	\|	Jake	30/11/07

14.	If Israel continued its siege on Lebanon	09:09	\|	Isranorth	30/11/07

15.	WHAT WAS THE IAF SUPPOSED TO DO?	10:23	\|	Robert	30/11/07

16.	Unclear garble,except one thing:IDF too timid in trying to kill	10:29	\|	Absolute Sweden	30/11/07

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