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del.icio.us Digg It!  new Last update - 10:04 26/11/2007 ANALYSIS / Should IDF reduce its PA activity ahead of summit? By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent Tags: peace process, Palestinians  Here, in a nutshell, is the Israel Defense Forces' dilemma ahead of the Annapolis conference: To what extent should proactive measures in the West Bank (and to a lesser extent in the Gaza Strip) be rolled back in the coming days? On the one hand, an excess of arrest operations could obviously lead to an unnecessary entanglement that would cloud the atmosphere at the conference, whose chances for success are already limited. If civilians are killed - or even wanted gunmen - on the day before the summit, the Palestinians will be able to accuse Israel of sabotaging the peace process. On the other hand, reducing the IDF's activity could let Palestinian terrorist groups achieve their goal of disrupting the conference by a showy attack. Advertisement As of last night, the central and southern army commands had not received any new directives. In an arrest sweep on Sunday in the heart of Tul Karm, a relatively senior wanted militant from Fatah was killed and his accomplice badly wounded; in the Gaza Strip, three gunmen were killed when they approached the Erez crossing. Before past conferences of this sort, orders were issued to maintain a lower profile; to make do for a few days with pursuing only "ticking bombs." On Sunday there was one specific alert about a plan to dispatch a suicide bomber (that was the reason for a temporary high alert in Jerusalem). Several lesser alerts exist, but the main fear is of "sleeper" cells hitting Israel without any warning. The IDF is refraining for now from deploying more forces in the West Bank, and merely employing a relatively large number of spot checkpoints along roads. Syria's announcement on Sunday that it will send its deputy foreign minister to the conference ostensibly lowers the risk of an imminent terror attack. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are still headquartered in Damascus, and it is doubtful that Syria wants to be accused of undermining the conference. But Israeli intelligence officials say it's not that simple. General orders to carry out an attack have already gone out, and the networks in the West Bank now operate independently. From the moment policy is set at the headquarters in Syria and the Gaza Strip, the cells are free to act at their own discretion. And after many weeks of pressure to deliver something to torpedo the conference, they might act. Senior intelligence sources told Haaretz on Sunday that despite signs of greater security cooperation among Palestinian Authority agencies, the Palestinians are very far from the ability to thwart attacks they displayed in the years between the wave of bus bombings in the winter of 1996 and the outbreak of the second intifada in September 2000. The intelligence people are more impressed by the leadership of Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayad than that of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. But unlike Abbas, Fayad doesn't have any troops (or a hard-core of political loyalists) to enforce his say. In light of this, the Shin Bet and IDF share the same negative opinion concerning far-reaching gestures toward the Palestinians: The PA will not be able to impose order on West Bank towns if the IDF stops operating there each night. Even worse, it would take just a few months for an effective infrastructure to develop in those towns for producing Qassam rockets that would threaten Israel's Sharon and Dan regions. Related articles: Major IDF drill to simulate large-scale W. Bank clashes And after Annapolis, Gaza? Israel to go on high terror alert due to Annapolis peace summit MI chief: Hamas would react with terror to successful summit Bookmark to del.icio.us Denier, disrupted Protesters disrupt Oxford debate with Holocaust denier David Irving. Echoes from Maryland The full text of Bush, PM, and Abbas speeches, and the joint statement.   1.   Stating the obvious 06:26  |  CK Tan 26/11/07   2.   under the pretext 07:09  |  r.m. 26/11/07   3.   The invincible Qassam controls Israeli policy 07:22  |  Natallie Durson 26/11/07   4.   Just take care of protecting Jewish lives IDF, forget Annapolis 09:18  |  Genuine Tosefta 26/11/07   5.   All or nothing 11:27  |  Gilad 26/11/07   6.   "Haaretz" journalists+families`ve volunteered to be terror-target 23:52  |  Absolute Sweden 26/11/07   7.   Carry on as usual 01:05  |  Free Gilad Shalit 27/11/07   8.   If they scaled down security for peace they need to be replaced 01:13  |  zionist forever 27/11/07   9.   What else, continue the killings 11:28  |  El-Birawi 27/11/07   10.   More sacrifices for the peace process 19:12  |  Nili 27/11/07   11.   IDF Defending Heroes 21:18  |  John Doe 27/11/07   12.   Rumkovsky lives on 00:14  |  American Patriot 28/11/07   13.   Let Hamas Beat Fatah, Then Act 10:37  |  David 28/11/07

Today Online Bush to inaugurate peace talks at White House summit Responses: 22 Rosner, Benn: Who is in favor of ending (Israeli) terrorism? Responses: 16 Report: U.K. Jewish school ordered to change ethnic admissions rules Responses: 1 Avi Issacharoff: Arab leaders came to summit for fear of Iran Responses: 16 Haaretz TV: Israel does little to help battered women Responses: 2 Rosner's Domain Who's in favor of ending (Israeli) terrorism? Off the main road, the fate Palestinians will be decided Rosner's Guest: Good reasons for Israel to explore Syria negotiations Analysis of Mideast pessimism (WTR) More Headlines 09:59 Bush to inaugurate final status talks at White House summit 09:37 Joint statement completed just minutes before presentation 10:36 Report: U.K. Jewish school told to cut ethnic admissions criteria 08:37 Syria says Israel ties only after withdrawal to Green Line border 10:37 ANALYSIS / Fear of Iran brought Arab leaders to Annapolis meet 08:25 Rabbi Yosef: Shas will quit gov't if Jerusalem is on talks' agenda 08:29 Gov't to set up 14 negotiating teams for talks with PA 04:23 Iran: 'True owners of Palestine' absent at Annapolis conference 07:30 Crime lord suspected of posting mock death notices for vigilante cops Previous Editions Select Day 27 nov 26 nov 25 nov 23 nov 22 nov 21 nov 20 nov 19 nov 18 nov 16 nov 15 nov 14 nov

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