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Last update - 21:34 13/11/2007
ANALYSIS: Hamas losing grip on Gaza, Fatah gaining support
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
tags: Fatah, Israel, Hamas, Gaza

The Hamas gunmen who sought to disperse the crowd at the rally Monday in Gaza marking the third anniversary of the death of Yasser Arafat did not use rubber-coated bullets or tear gas; they simply opened fire on the crowd, leaving seven dead and dozens injured. In so doing, they added to the pressure under which the Islamic organization is laboring five months after it took over the Gaza Strip from Fatah forces.

Some people in the West Bank Monday were recalling the "million-man rally" held by the anti-Syrian faction in Beirut after the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri, and the wave of protest that brought about the ejection of the Syrian army from Lebanon. Hamas will not give up Gaza so easily - they have nowhere to go - but senior Fatah members believe the rally might mark the beginning of the end of the bloody Hamas regime in Gaza.

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pposition to Hamas in the Strip, and concomitantly renewed support for Fatah, are on the rise, and the recent violence is expected to reduce Hamas' status further on the Palestinian street, as people in Gaza see Hamas using its terror tactics against its own people.

But even before the rally, Gaza Strip Fatah leaders, who are watching events mainly from hiding in Ramallah or in Cairo, can note with satisfaction the numbers their organization brought to the rally.

Al Jazeera, not known for its support of Fatah, estimated that about 200,000 demonstrators were present. This is an important sign of the frustration in Gaza with the Hamas regime, which is unable to ameliorate the distress in the Strip, worsened by the sanctions Israel and the international community has imposed.

A recent opinion poll conducted by the Palestinian research institute Jerusalem Media and Communication Center revealed that support for Fatah had risen from 30.6 percent in the West Bank and Gaza in September 2006, to 40 percent now, while support for Hamas declined from 29.7 percent to 19.7 percent in the same time period.

The poll also revealed that Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh is still the second-most popular leader in the territories, after Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. However Haniyeh is almost completely uninvolved in decision-making now. Sunday, too, his rivals in the organization were the ones calling the shots: former foreign minister Mahmoud a-Zahar, and the members of the Hamas military wing led by Ahmed al-Ja'abari.

Israeli intelligence sources say Ja'abari is the real man in charge in Gaza now. Not only does he force his authority on Haniyeh; he is also trying to shake off the influence of Khaled Meshal, the Damascus-based head of the Hamas political wing.

The hard line of the military wing has prevented any easing of the sanctions on Gaza, and has apparently disrupted attempts at a deal to release kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. It may also increase the chance of large-scale Israeli military operation in the Strip following the Annapolis summit.

Israel believes Fatah is still far from reasserting itself vis-a-vis Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Senior PA officials have warned Israel against moves toward a unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank. Such a withdrawal, they say will lead to more West Bank cities falling to Hamas, whose people are more inspired and organized than Fatah.


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      1.   Now it is time to tighten the screws even more on Hamas in Gaza 04:48  |  Genuine Tosefta 13/11/07
      2.   Canned story: "In Egypt, calls for peace bring waves of rebuke" 04:50  |  Genuine Tosefta 13/11/07
      3.   Well - 20% of The Population Of Gaza Is Out On The Street 04:56  |  Eli 13/11/07
      4.   Hamasistan 04:56  |  alan 13/11/07
      5.   ISRAEL MUST OPEN DOORS FOR INNOCENT PALSTINIANS TO ESCAPE TO IRAN 04:56  |  VOICE of MOSHIACH))) 13/11/07
      6.   HAMAS SHOULD DROWN IN FATAH BLOOD! 05:40  |  Rabbi Tommy Lipsker 13/11/07
      7.   FATAH/MODERATES Must Win/Prevail! Hamas, Etc. Must Lose. 06:19  |  Proud Pal Defender 13/11/07
      8.   SOLUTION: Hamas, Etc. In Gaza And Fatah In The West Bank. 06:22  |  Proud Pal Defender 13/11/07
      9.   For real? 07:42  |  Esther 13/11/07
      10.   Hamas and Fatah slaughtering each other. 08:35  |  Dr. Jack 13/11/07
      11.   Haaretz, please offer guidance 09:08  |  Leon Rosgarten 13/11/07
      12.   they are killing themselves like Jews did 09:22  |  Steve 13/11/07
      13.   Israel must, must cease supplying Hamastan with electricity, 09:27  |  Dalia 13/11/07
      14.   Pure wishful thinking 09:43  |  Clickfool 13/11/07
      15.   FATAH/MODERATES Must Win/Prevail! Hamas, Etc. Must Lose. 09:51  |  Proud Pal Defender 13/11/07
      16.   SOLUTION: Hamas, Etc. In Gaza And Fatah In The West Bank. 09:53  |  Proud Pal Defender 13/11/07
      17.   and will it make any difference to the arabs ? 10:39  |  victor hardman 13/11/07
      18.   proud pal is forgetting to take his pills again 10:52  |  victor hardman 13/11/07
      19.   BETWEEN A DREAM AND A REALITY 10:59  |  indrajaya 13/11/07
      20.   A question for a Rabbi # 6 11:06  |  Clickfool 13/11/07
      21.   Leon Rosgarten,remember Comrade Stalin,mentor of "Haaretz": 11:21  |  Absolute Sweden 13/11/07
      22.   Rabbi Tommy Lipsker 12:05  |  notblackorwhite 13/11/07
      23.   advice to Clickfool on becoming a mullah 12:11  |  Watcher 13/11/07
      24.   To the bloodthirsty jewish rabbi &other zionists,dream on,Hamas 12:29  |  lakshmi 13/11/07
      25.   Real men 12:33  |  H 13/11/07
      26.   "Analysis"???? It`s Dahlans take on the situation. 12:36  |  Daniello 13/11/07
      27.   #24 To the blood thirsty Ayatollahs & other Arab lovers dream on 12:59  |  S 13/11/07
      28.   For Watcher # 23 13:05  |  Clickfool 13/11/07
      29.   To Watcher # 23 - Priceless... 13:21  |  Klaudia 13/11/07
      30.   arabs killing arabs 13:40  |  natan 13/11/07
      31.   Clickfool #28 14:58  |  S 13/11/07
      32.   lakshmi.... the hand writing is on the wall 15:07  |  Lynn 13/11/07
      33.   # 19 Indy... Hamas days are numbered 15:10  |  Lynn 13/11/07
      34.   Ahmadinejad losing grip on power 15:31  |  Briton 13/11/07
      35.   To #1/#2, canned story 15:35  |  ZS 13/11/07
      36.   #11 Leon 15:38  |  John Allen 13/11/07
      37.   What`s your day job, S? # 31 15:41  |  Clickfool 13/11/07
      38.   For Klaudia # 29 15:46  |  Clickfool 13/11/07
      39.   #12 Steve 15:49  |  John Allen 13/11/07
      40.   Hobbes` Gaza 15:52  |  khairi janbek 13/11/07
      41.   TWO TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS FIGHT IT OUT 16:25  |  B.Heddem 13/11/07
      42.   wtacher # 23,you forgot one more thing,stealing internationally 16:33  |  terrornator 13/11/07
      43.   To clickfool 16:34  |  nick 13/11/07
      44.   What a stupid analysis 16:44  |  Gee 13/11/07
      45.   bravo leon! 16:56  |  vladimir 13/11/07
      46.   To Lynn & the other zionists,Mishal in his recent interview with 16:57  |  lakshmi 13/11/07
      47.   #37 Clickfool 17:14  |  S 13/11/07
      48.   Shootout in Gaza. 17:24  |  Stephen. 13/11/07
      49.   For Clickfool #14...not exactly knitting, but... 17:58  |  Esther 13/11/07
      50.   25 H why would they go to Hamas when they have real men,that 18:08  |  lakshmi 13/11/07
      51.   Re Tommy the "rabbi" #6 shames us all... 18:13  |  Esther 13/11/07
      52.   For nick # 43 19:41  |  Clickfool 13/11/07
      53.   #Lakshmi 19:49  |  H 13/11/07
      54.   Shamful Esther,you`re redeemed,Israeli court`s released murderers 20:18  |  Absolute Sweden 13/11/07
      55.   Bad news is: Hamas gaining ground in the West Bank 21:13  |  Jake 13/11/07
      56.   And the Taliban still control Afghanistan, Lakshmi 21:25  |  Polybios 13/11/07
      57.   Now its time to finish Hamas off 21:30  |  Kipperraes 13/11/07
      58.   Hamas - Morally and Politically BANKRUPT 22:22  |  Sammy 13/11/07
      59.   Naive chirping by innocent minds... 23:26  |  17 13/11/07
      60.   53 H,true,this article is about :Hamas,not israel or the west, 00:07  |  lakshmi 14/11/07
      61.   56Polybios,you seem to read a different set of sources than I do, 00:14  |  lakshmi 14/11/07
      62.   to Clickfool 01:54  |  Nick 14/11/07
      63.   Proud Pal defender 02:17  |  Danite 14/11/07
      64.   53 H briefly,2nd Try,you`ve nicely managed in your stats to 03:51  |  lakshmi 14/11/07
      65.   #42 Say Terrornator 04:15  |  ballistic 14/11/07
      66.   Kipperraes 04:19  |  ballistic 14/11/07
      67.   With friends like Lakshmi, palestinians don`t need enemies 05:55  |  Voice of Reason 14/11/07
      68.   CFOOL ETC you SURE he is a Rabbi ,not one of your mob? 06:22  |  PETER S.M. 14/11/07
      69.   Indra 08:37  |  Willy 14/11/07
      70.   For Nick again # 62 09:25  |  Clickfool 14/11/07
      71.   Down the Rabbit Hole with Peter SM # 68 09:31  |  Clickfool 14/11/07
      72.   # 64 lakshmi, Re Blaming the victims 09:31  |  Dutch 14/11/07
      73.   # 60 lakshmi, Re Islamic extremists 10:07  |  dutch 14/11/07
      74.   no hamas after this time 12:37  |  nadeem 14/11/07
      75.   Proud Pal Defender 14:25  |  British Leftie 15/11/07
      76.   That`s for sure, Lakshmi #61 17:28  |  Polybios 15/11/07
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