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Last update - 00:00 09/11/2007
A twin nuclear crisis in 2008?
By Michalis Firillas
Tags: Pakistan, Islamic movements 

Iran's nuclear program, and its president's vitriol, are certainly cause for concern, but they may have served to draw our attention away from a much more immediate danger - in Pakistan. In fact, there are four main reasons why the events unfolding in Pakistan should trouble us greatly, notwithstanding the greater distance separating the two countries, and the fact that the hatred for Israel emanating from there receives much less attention in the Israeli media.

The most basic and obvious problem is that since May 1998, when it carried out a series of underground tests, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has been a confirmed member of the nuclear club. Its means of delivery may still be limited, but it has a program to develop intermediate-range missiles of North Korean design. The most conservative estimates suggest that Pakistan has managed to produce 600-900 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (enough for at least 30-60 weapons). If that is not worrying enough, Pakistan also has a plutonium-based nuclear weapons program, perhaps intended for backup. But the most disconcerting aspect of all of this is neither the number of assembled weapons, nor the technological know-how: It is the sheer amount of fissile material available at different sites, including nuclear plants, which is also easier to steal, smuggle and use in radiological-type bombs.

Pakistan's current political instability may be part and parcel of the ongoing tug-of-war between the military and civilians for the country's soul, but it could also be the preamble to a civil war. What General Pervez Musharraf did in Pakistan last weekend has been done there by military strongmen before. Moreover, neither under civilian nor military rule has Pakistan managed to achieve long periods of domestic stability and economic growth. But there are three elements that, unlike previous periods of turmoil, seem to be reaching a peak today, and may be creating conditions that take the current unrest to a more extreme dimension.
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First, with the official incorporation of Islam into the mechanisms of the state, under General Zia-ul-Haq in 1977, the growing power of the religion assumed an increasingly vocal political role in the country. Second, the influx of funds and ideology - in great part from Saudi Arabia - has led to a significant radicalization and growing independence of Islamic movements in Pakistan. Third, the Taliban, and their affiliates in the porous, ethnically segmented border areas, seem to have come home to roost.

When Musharraf declared a state of emergency on television, he quoted from an 1864 letter by Abraham Lincoln, in which the latter justified his unconstitutional actions in the United States on the grounds that he was trying to save the union. Perhaps Musharraf was drawing a parallel to conditions in Pakistan, which he was implying were similar to a civil war. That comparison is not so far-fetched: Since the July siege of the Red Mosque in the capital, at least 800 people have died in Pakistan either in terrorist attacks or in fighting between security forces and Taliban. In its September/October Terrorism Index, the magazine Foreign Policy surveyed 100 U.S.-based experts who selected Pakistan as the country or region "most likely to become the next Al-Qaida stronghold."

But even if we accept the argument posed by some, that the army, not radical Islamists, is to blame in Pakistan and that elections and democratization are the solution to Musharraf's failed rule, there is still the problem of the Islamic Bomb. This was so dubbed by then prime minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in 1974, in response to India's nuclear tests. As in Iran, Pakistan's nuclear program enjoys broad public support at home. In this regard, the terminology has both symbolic and practical value. Indeed, both the army and civilian leaders used the Islamic card as a tool for nation-building and for unifying a multiethnic, polyglot and culturally diverse mixture of populations. As such, an Islamic Bomb means, alternately, a bomb to defend Pakistan from India, and also a Sunni bomb potentially available to the ummah.

Which brings us to the most worrisome threat of all: proliferation. What do we know? We know that successive Pakistani leaders, both civilian and military, lied about their intentions to develop nuclear weapons. We also know that the Pakistanis have actively proliferated nuclear technology and materials and that the notorious "father of the bomb," Dr. A.Q. Khan, was not only the mastermind of a lucrative ring of proliferators, but also its fall guy. To this we should mention the strategic ties established beginning in the early 1980s between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which include missile and other technology sharing.

If Pakistan is in turmoil, starved for funds, with power devolving into the hands of various groups, including rogue elements in its powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) with known ties to Islamic extremists, nuclear proliferation is likely. This could come in the form of off-the-shelf weapons being sold to countries like Saudi Arabia, forced to turn nuclear by an Iranian bomb, or with terrorists interested in acquiring small quantities of fissile material for "dirty bombs" - whose potential targets are many. Indeed, according to the Foreign Policy survey, three-quarters of the experts pointed to Pakistan as the country "most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists in the next three to five years." In spite of calls for elections, these may prove to be too little too late to stem chaos in Pakistan - which could include the loss of parts of the country to radical armed groups. For Israel and the West, this means preparing to face two nuclear crises in 2008.

Michalis Firillas is on the editorial staff of Haaretz.
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  1.   THAT`S BETTER, NOTHING TO HIDE MORE 10:01  |  indrajaya 09/11/07
  2.   Heading towards WW3.....??? 10:06  |  Swiss (Dino) 09/11/07
  3.   MUSHARRAF = THE NEXT SHAH IRAN 10:10  |  indrajaya 09/11/07
  4.   ABRAHAM WHO? 10:15  |  indrajaya 09/11/07
  5.   There has been a Muslim bomb and the world is still alive?!?! 10:50  |  Natallie Durson 09/11/07
  6.   Musharaf 10:56  |  Sabra 09/11/07
  7.   Abraham who 10:58  |  Sabra 09/11/07
  8.   Shouldn`t Israel be pestering the USA.... 11:15  |  Clickfool 09/11/07
  9.   # 7, SABRA 11:45  |  indrajaya 09/11/07
  10.   To Natallie and all on M.A.D. 11:52  |  I.A. 09/11/07
  11.   What are you waiting for Israel... 12:01  |  Maureen Ann 09/11/07
  12.   Why worry about Iran 12:49  |  Chris Linthwaite 09/11/07
  13.   To Natallie Durson 13:21  |  Reuben 09/11/07
  14.   to Natallie Durson 13:23  |  Reuben 09/11/07
  15.   For a long time Natalie 14:07  |  Mark Lincoln 09/11/07
  16.   This is a serious situation 14:19  |  Mark Lincoln 09/11/07
  17.   IS THE JEWISH BOMB SECURE? 14:26  |  TrippleJump 09/11/07
  18.   TrippleJump 16:03  |  Mark Lincoln 09/11/07
  19.   Pakistan-Democracy 18:49  |  Abdul Aziz Higazi 09/11/07
  20.   Muslims must defend themselves against 19:00  |  Pakistani 09/11/07
  21.   Perhaps even some jewish brains ... 19:25  |  Axel 09/11/07
  22.   Must impress on Pakistan its 100% accountability for its U235 19:26  |  Dr. L. Brnd 09/11/07
  23.   Yippy Ki Yay, IA 20:44  |  Mark of Lewiston 09/11/07
  24.   12 Dr Brnd - Who Should We Tell? 20:50  |  Mark of Lewiston 09/11/07
  25.   Mark Lincoln#18 20:58  |  TrippleJump 09/11/07
  26.   A teacher speaks # 13 21:06  |  Clickfool 09/11/07
  27.   Iran 22:03  |  Kian Kiani 09/11/07
  28.   I would be more worried about their Plutonium L Brnd 22:28  |  Mark Lincoln 09/11/07
  29.   Pakistan 23:05  |  P. J. Casey 09/11/07
  30.   I Have No Problem With "Islamic Bomb" 23:09  |  Jane 09/11/07
  31.   Denuclearizing Pakistan is urgent 23:09  |  Tosefta 09/11/07
  32.   A bomb without a delivery system. 23:44  |  Stephen. 09/11/07
  33.   Isn`t anyone worried about our `first strike policy?` 00:24  |  Lou Medel 10/11/07
  34.   # 31 tosefta 00:26  |  Axel 10/11/07
  35.   # 32 stephen 00:34  |  Axel 10/11/07
  36.   Al-Zawahiri, Khan and the taliban nuclear bomb. 01:33  |  Fortuna Benmayor 10/11/07
  37.   Jane - I have a fundamental problem with bombs 02:18  |  Mark Lincoln 10/11/07
  38.   I.A. - ignoring reality 02:27  |  Mark Lincoln 10/11/07
  39.   I.A. - why the psycho-right hates MAD 02:29  |  Mark Lincoln 10/11/07
  40.   Tosefta - denuclearizing Pakistan 02:36  |  Mark Lincoln 10/11/07
  41.   TippleJump 02:39  |  Mark Lincoln 10/11/07
  42.   Stephen - really? 02:41  |  Mark Lincoln 10/11/07
  43.   Israel,India,pakistan need to denuclearize 06:07  |  John 10/11/07
  44.   For Mark Lincoln on MAD # 39 10:20  |  Clickfool 10/11/07
  45.   That Train Has Left the Station 11:26  |  Jane 10/11/07
  46.   # 2 Swiss may I join you in that demand? 14:37  |  Lynn 10/11/07
  47.   # 9 Indy 14:40  |  Lynn 10/11/07
  48.   Pakistani 14:43  |  Lynn 10/11/07
  49.   Tosefta, we agree on this issue # 31 14:46  |  Lynn 10/11/07
  50.   TOSEFTA 14:56  |  indrajaya 10/11/07
  51.   LYNN 15:00  |  indrajaya 10/11/07
  52.   Do not be silly clickfool 15:35  |  Mark Lincoln 10/11/07
  53.   Jane - it left the station over 60 years ago 15:43  |  Mark Lincoln 10/11/07
  54.   Terrorists and `nuclear materials" 15:47  |  Mark Lincoln 10/11/07
  55.   I Think It`s Just A Matter Of Time... 17:30  |  Yosemite 10/11/07
  56.   Denuclearizing Pakistan (Lynn #49; Indrajaya #50) 18:26  |  Tosefta 10/11/07
  57.   # 56, TOSEFTA 19:11  |  indrajaya 10/11/07
  58.   indrajaya # 1 yes were ready,actually we`ve been ready,were just 19:41  |  terrornator 10/11/07
  59.   For Mark Lincoln # 52 20:06  |  Clickfool 10/11/07
  60.   #58 Say Terrornator; don`t get so 22:48  |  ballistic 10/11/07
  61.   Terrornator 22:53  |  ballistic 10/11/07
  62.   Swiss(Dino) # 2 - Re WW3 23:24  |  Eli 10/11/07
  63.   Clickfool - and it will no matter who 23:35  |  Mark Lincoln 10/11/07
  64.   #35 Axel Guten Nacht. 00:04  |  Stephen. 11/11/07
  65.   Ballistic # 61 - Must Have Been A Long Wait 00:26  |  Eli 11/11/07
  66.   Cut the Racist Crap 01:00  |  Jane 11/11/07
  67.   # 46 Lynn 01:32  |  Swiss (Dino) 11/11/07
  68.   # 62 Eli 01:42  |  Swiss (Dino) 11/11/07
  69.   Back to the Topic 01:56  |  Mark Lincoln 11/11/07
  70.   Back to the topic II 02:14  |  Mark Lincoln 11/11/07
  71.   # 64 Stephen 02:27  |  Axel 11/11/07
  72.   #65 Say Eli 02:44  |  ballistic 11/11/07
  73.   Swiss (Dino) - I Understand Your Logic. Under Different 03:36  |  Eli 11/11/07
  74.   Swiss (Dino) - I Hit The SEND Button Before I Completed My 03:57  |  Eli 11/11/07
  75.   Jane - What Do You Think The ME Conflict Is About? 04:04  |  Eli 11/11/07
  76.   #7, SABRA (2) 04:43  |  indrajaya 11/11/07
  77.   Axel # 70 re Stephen and Alcoholism 04:48  |  Phinias Whoppy 11/11/07
  78.   #75 Well, Eli, I bet you know 17:47  |  ballistic 11/11/07
  79.   Ballistic - I Suppose Your Request For forty Acres and A Mule 18:44  |  Eli 11/11/07
  80.   #78 Say Eli, 40 acres and a mule? 23:32  |  ballistic 11/11/07
  81.   Levi con`t 23:41  |  ballistic 11/11/07
  82.   So Ballistic... All The Decent Blacks Who Do Not Agree 19:51  |  Eli 12/11/07
  83.   #82 Eli 02:36  |  ballistic 13/11/07
  84.   Well Ballistic - Now I Understand. You Are A Farakhan Stooge Then 04:37  |  Eli 13/11/07
  85.   #84 Well Eli you prove my point 16:22  |  ballistic 13/11/07
  86.   NO ONE CAN STEAL THESE WEAPONS 22:19  |  ALI IMTIAZ 27/12/07
  87.   WORRY ABOUT JEWS FANATICS NOT MUSLIMS 22:29  |  Ali Imtiaz 27/12/07
  88.   TO MAUREEN ANN 22:38  |  IMTIAZ 27/12/07
  89.   Distorting realities of history part I 22:54  |  Awan H. Reman 27/12/07
  90.   To Reuben 23:26  |  Awan 27/12/07
  91.   To Pakistani 23:40  |  A True Pakista 27/12/07
  92.   There has been a Muslim bomb and the world is still alive?!?! 00:24  |  Carl Aubrey 29/12/07
 Read & React
Red Cross: Israel breaking int'l law, letting children starve in Gaza
Responses: 114
Two Lebanon rockets hit North; Hezbollah denies involvment
Responses: 68
Yossi Melman: Excellent intel on Gaza shows Israel learned from Lebanon errors
Responses: 21
Yoav Stern: Rocket fire on North may be realization of Iran threat
Responses: 25
Gideon Lichfield: So, why isn't Israel winning the PR war?
Responses: 74


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