The IDF in Gaza / Advantage over Hamas is shrinking - Haaretz

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Wed., October 31, 2007 Cheshvan 19, 5768

Israel Time: 02:48 (EST+7)

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The IDF in Gaza / Advantage over Hamas is shrinking

By Amos Harel

The casualties Israel has suffered during offensive operations in the Gaza Strip - three dead in the past three months - hint at a troubling trend: The Israel Defense Forces' tactical advantage over Hamas in Gaza is shrinking.

In recent months, the IDF has conducted operations in Gaza on a nearly daily basis. The area of operations is limited: no more than three kilometers from the fence - an area the army likes to call the "security zone." However, this means that there are regular clashes with forward divisions of Hamas, which also often uses other Palestinian organizations as auxiliaries. The IDF operations are meant to push the militants further away from Israeli territory in an effort to prevent them from crossing into Israel, digging tunnels or carrying out other offensive operations, such as attempting to abduct soldiers, firing mortars and laying roadside bombs.

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But Hamas has not taken these IDF efforts lying down. In order to reduce the freedom of operation of IDF units, Hamas sets up ambushes when they enter the Gaza Strip and also when they leave it.

Until recently, it was obvious who was winning this confrontation. The IDF has an enormous advantage in terms of firepower, observation, control of the air, armored vehicles and troop training. Dozens of IDF operations in the strip following the abduction of Gilad Shalit in the summer of 2006 resulted in hundreds of Palestinian dead. During that period, the IDF suffered one dead soldier, killed by friendly fire.

But in recent months, the efforts by Iran and Hezbollah to improve Hamas's military capabilities are beginning to be felt. It is not only better weaponry, but also careful study of the lessons of the Second Lebanon War. Dozens of militants trained in Iran and Lebanon have managed to enter the strip and have subsequently created a system of control and coordination. There is a chain of command for every area, which operates a coordinated network of observation posts, infantry and antitank forces.

Due to the fact that the entry points of IDF forces are relatively limited and predictable, the chance for clashes is relatively high. Israel still has an advantage, but it is harder to emerge from these clashes unscathed.

The IDF also suffers from another limitation: The size of the force allotted to offensive operations in the strip is relatively small, while the tasks are enormous. The soldiers are being drained.

Yesterday, Staff Sergeant Ehud Efrati was killed and a Golani soldier was seriously injured. How do these increased casualties, which include two soldiers lightly injured on Friday and another soldier killed two weeks ago, affect the likelihood of a large-scale operation in the strip? On one hand, such losses encourage the IDF to take fewer risks, which means employing more indiscriminate fire, and this leads naturally toward escalation. On the other hand, losses have a deterrent effect on the political leadership, as they drive home the point that a massive operation will not be a walk in the park.

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