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Blackout in Gaza, last August (Fadi Adwan / Jini)
Last update - 06:26 26/10/2007
ANALYSIS: Israel's real intention behind sanctions on Gaza Strip
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff , Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: military operation 

There is an enormous gap between the reasons Israel is giving for the decision to impose significant sanctions against Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip, and the real intentions behind them. Defense Minister Ehud Barak authorized Thursday a plan for
disrupting electricity supply to the Gaza Strip, as well as significantly shrinking fuel shipments. This is supposed to reduce the number of Qassam rocket attacks against Sderot and the other border communities. In practice, defense officials believe that the Palestinian militants will intensify their attacks in response to the sanctions.

As such, the real aim of this effort is twofold: to attempt a new form of "escalation" as a response to aggression from Gaza, before Israel embarks on a major military operation there; and to prepare the ground for a more clear-cut isolation of the Gaza Strip - limiting to an absolute minimum Israel's obligation toward the Palestinians there.
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Several weeks ago, Barak said Israel "is getting closer" to a major operation in the strip. Like Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, Barak is not excited about this possibility. He knows that it will not be easy, and there are no guarantees for positive results. Many soldiers will be killed and so will many innocent Palestinians, because the IDF will employ a massive artillery bombardment before it sends infantry into the crowded built-up areas. This will be a "dirty war," very aggressive, that will have scenes of destruction similar to southern Lebanon in 2006. The sole exception: unlike in Lebanon, the population there has nowhere to run.

Moreover, Ashkenazi has told the cabinet that he will only support an offensive operation if it is long-lasting. If after several weeks of fighting, the IDF is allowed time to carry out arrests and gather intelligence, then the chief of staff sees a point for the operation.

Defense sources say the sanctions will lead the militants to intensify their attacks to show that they do not succumb to Israeli pressure. And because the sanctions will not be severe - so as not to create a humanitarian crisis - they will not be effective. It is actually expected that the gasoline shortage will have a greater effect than the disruptions in the electricity supply - which normally happens because of equipment breakdowns.

The decision on sanctions is also an attempt to give expression to the inclination to completely disengage from Gaza. In this way Israel is sending a message to the Palestinian leadership in the strip that it must seek alternatives, however minor, to goods and services coming from Israel. This touches on the day after the Annapolis summit. Failure at the summit may lead Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas into the arms of Hamas. In such a case, Israel is raising a big stop sign at the exit from Ramallah: Passage to Gaza is closed.
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  1.   THIS MAN MUST BELIEVE IN FAIRIES FATHER CHRISTMAS AND ELVES 04:21  |  D.Ranged 26/10/07
  2.   To remind them that these Mohamedans 04:52  |  cristo 26/10/07
  3.   Simplistic 05:18  |  Ron 26/10/07
  4.   Israel embarks on a major military operation in Gaza 05:38  |  Silvienne 26/10/07
  5.   Why Was This Not Done Before? 05:39  |  Yoram 26/10/07
  6.   Well..... 05:54  |  Danite 26/10/07
  7.   Right, because shelling our civilians is not "escalation" enough? 05:56  |  Gili 26/10/07
  8.   Nowhere to run. 05:57  |  Maureen Ann 26/10/07
  9.   Gaza and a slow genocide 06:17  |  Truth 26/10/07
  10.   No need for a massive re-occupation of Gaza. Easier alternative. 07:21  |  Dr. L. Brnd 26/10/07
  11.   Nowhere to run 07:26  |  Aggie 26/10/07
  12.   Arabs have one outlet, leave Gaza via Egypt and back to Arabia 07:34  |  Genuine Tosefta 26/10/07
  13.   "Slow Genocide"?? Re: Truth from Australia 07:36  |  Aryeh 26/10/07
  14.   Yisrael has no abligation to Arabs 07:42  |  ranjnan 26/10/07
  15.   The latest solution?! 07:55  |  Esther 26/10/07
  16.   backwards thinking 07:55  |  Gershon Reed 26/10/07
  17.   One more thought... 07:58  |  Gershon Reed 26/10/07
  18.   Nazis, Nazis, Nazis 08:36  |  K 26/10/07
  19.   Dirty war 08:53  |  B 26/10/07
  20.   Sociopathic Zionist Bloodlust 08:57  |  chet 26/10/07
  21.   What goes around comes around 08:58  |  Chanalau, Tova 26/10/07
  22.   CALLED `PALS` GET OUT, BASTA 09:49  |  BOB KING 26/10/07
  23.   Offensive would kill more Israelis than qassams ever could... 10:00  |  Aubrey 26/10/07
  24.   wrong analysis 10:02  |  gil 26/10/07
  25.   Israel controls Gaza`s border 10:03  |  Aubrey 26/10/07
  26.   #13 Aryeh. And what of... 10:37  |  Maureen Ann 26/10/07
  27.   Aryeh and Australia 10:43  |  Truths 26/10/07
  28.   Never again? 10:44  |  Traude 26/10/07
  29.   #Areh. My mistake... 11:27  |  Maureen Ann 26/10/07
  30.   The night the lights went out in Gaza 11:52  |  Petra 26/10/07
  31.   "Israel seeks to block Abbas route to Hamas" 12:14  |  S 26/10/07
  32.   Whatever 12:19  |  Andras Bereny 26/10/07
  33.   #69 - Maureen Anne 12:46  |  Zelkha 26/10/07
  34.   Isreal,s real intentions 12:59  |  Joe 26/10/07
  35.   The real REAL intentions Mr Amos Harel is that 13:30  |  Hasrahma 26/10/07
  36.   #4 so wanna trade rockets for power? 13:52  |  Petra 26/10/07
  37.   Amos Harel analysing himself to death,not his own but Sderot`s 14:07  |  Absolute Sweden 26/10/07
  38.   Chet 14:33  |  MazalUK 26/10/07
  39.   #20 chet puts his finger on it ! the ineffective arabs 14:55  |  victor hardman 26/10/07
  40.   Israel is edging close to the gutter of history 15:01  |  Ibrahim 26/10/07
  41.   Making things worse 15:03  |  Tosefta 26/10/07
  42.   # 16 Gershon Reed on Egypt 15:06  |  Lynn 26/10/07
  43.   Amos Harel - you forgot to add a disclaimer 15:28  |  William 26/10/07
  44.   #14 Don Camillo is out of the office.... 15:51  |  Don Chichi 26/10/07
  45.   Making things worse 16:21  |  Tosefta 26/10/07
  46.   #4 Silvienne 16:50  |  Sol 26/10/07
  47.   #20 chet 17:00  |  Sol 26/10/07
  48.   Let`s hear some wailing 17:08  |  Goldberg 26/10/07
  49.   #36 17:14  |  richard 26/10/07
  50.   Thinking Israel was intelligent...my mistake? 17:15  |  Silvienne 26/10/07
  51.   #4 Hey there Silvienne 17:26  |  ballistic 26/10/07
  52.   #33 Zelkha 17:34  |  Deborah 26/10/07
  53.   #13. Aryeh 17:40  |  Deborah 26/10/07
  54.   I doubt all of this 17:45  |  Ron 26/10/07
  55.   For the warhawks of the Olmert and Bush regimes 17:59  |  Mark Lincoln 26/10/07
  56.   Making things worse - Tosefta 18:04  |  Mark Lincoln 26/10/07
  57.   catapult frozen sewerage?? 18:32  |  ROB OF MELBOURNE AUS 26/10/07
  58.   #51, ballistic... 19:28  |  Silvienne 26/10/07
  59.   #20, chet "kassams have killed five Israelis since 2005" 19:40  |  Silvienne 26/10/07
  60.   Responsibility 19:52  |  Fred 26/10/07
  61.   #58 Hi Silvienne 19:57  |  ballistic 26/10/07
  62.   learn from history.... 20:26  |  ravi 26/10/07
  63.   MAUREEN ANN-- U R SICK SEE A SHRINK 20:28  |  JOJO 26/10/07
  64.   The result of keeping Hamas out 20:34  |  Tosefta 26/10/07
  65.   #46, Sol from Toronto... 21:12  |  Silvienne 26/10/07
  66.   Ibrahim and gutters 21:16  |  Danite 26/10/07
  67.   #48, Goldberg...great post!! 21:17  |  Silvienne 26/10/07
  68.   danite 21:25  |  Jew 26/10/07
  69.   363 Say hello Maureen!!! 21:31  |  ballistic 26/10/07
  70.   #52 &53 Deborah 21:36  |  ballistic 26/10/07
  71.   arabist apologist silvienne suppsedly thinks 22:26  |  peter 26/10/07
  72.   The real intenantion is not "behind" it is in front - to stop the 22:31