ANALYSIS: What effect if any will the new U.S. sanctions have on Iran? - Haaretz

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Sat., October 27, 2007 Cheshvan 15, 5768

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		Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini. (AP Archives)

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ANALYSIS: What effect if any will the new U.S. sanctions have on Iran?

By Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondent

The significance of the United States decision to tighten its unilateral sanctions on Iran is not economic, but rather symbolic politically and psychologically.

The new sanctions are directed at a number of organizations and individuals in Iran, with those primarily affected being the Revolutionary Guards and its elite unit, the Al-Quds force. This is the first time that the U.S. has imposed sanctions another country's official military.

The Revolutionary Guards, which was declared a "proliferator of weapons of mass destruction", has 125,000 troops and is the most important armed force in Iran, as well as the backbone of the regime.

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According to Iran's constitution, the Revolutionary Guards' role is to protect the revolution and Iran existence as an Islamic republic. In practice, it is an army in every way, with ground, air, and naval forces and is responsible for Iran's long-distance missiles - including those that are capable of striking Israel - as well as Iran's secret nuclear program for the production of weapons. This is opposed to the nuclear program under the jurisdiction of Iran's atomic agency, which provides more open access to international inspection.

In addition to being a military force, the Revolutionary Guards is also a financial empire, with construction companies, financial institutions, and involvement in the oil market. It has representatives abroad, who manage and control front companies that handle purchases for the missile and nuclear programs as well as financial reimbursement for Revolutionary Guards commanders.

The Al-Quds force, which was declared a "terrorist organization," has some 15,000 troops and is considered the Revolutionary Guards' elite unit and is charged with holding contacts, mostly secret, with Shiite and pro-Iranian organizations around the world.

The Al-Quds force dispatches envoys and military advisors to organizations like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad and gives them funding for their activities. The U.S. sanctions list includes: senior Revolutionary Guards commanders, Iran's Defense Ministry, additional arms of the Iranian administration with ties to terrorism as well as the missile and nuclear development projects, and three central Iranian banks - Bank Melli, Bank Mellat, and Bank Saderat.

Even before the new sanctions were imposed, trade between the U.S. and Iran had been extremely limited since the Islamic revolution in Iran. The purpose of the sanctions is first and foremost to send a clear message both to the Iranian leadership and the international community.

Regarding Iran, the U.S. administration wants to demonstrate determination to do everything in order to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Regarding the international community, the sanctions have a dual and apparently contradictory purpose - to warn and to calm fears. To calm fears in terms of showing that the U.S. is not trigger-happy, does not want to rush to implement the military option, and is prepared to take a step that would prevent the need for a military attack. At the same time it is also sending a warning to the international community and particularly Europe and Russia: If you don't want us to attack Iran, you must join our economic sanctions. If they don't join, Iran will not feel the economic pressure and will continue its deviancy and the U.S. will be forced to use military force.

Will the sanctions have an effect on the Iranian leadership? It is clear that they won't change the position of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other hard-liners, who are convinced that the American threats are empty, and that the U.S. has no intention of attacking Iran.

According to those who hold this position, the world will eventually come to terms with a nuclear Iran. But the sanctions are in principle directed against Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini and moderate conservatives. They are designed to signal that Iran's nuclear program could hamper the regime's ability to survive.

The U.S. hopes to create a "domino effect" - European and Russian companies will join the sanctions - not necessarily because they feel the sanctions are necessary, but rather out of fear of being punished by the U.S. In such a scenario, the supreme leader could reach the conclusion that Ahmadinejad and his followers are more of a burden then an asset, and will suspend the nuclear program.

Related articles:

U.S. announces sweeping new sanctions on Iranian military

Israel joins effort to starve Iran atom program

Peres: World has proof that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons

British PM Brown to Olmert: We're for tougher Iran sanctions

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1.	iran is safe america in danger	21:22	\|	shia 4 ever	25/10/07

2.	What effect has sanctions had on Cuba?	21:26	\|	Israeli mamasita	25/10/07

3.	Sanctins won`t do. It is time to destroy Iran`s nuclear facilitie	21:46	\|	Chaim	25/10/07

4.	Sanctions?	21:53	\|	P. J. Casey	25/10/07

5.	Sudden Impact	22:01	\|	Chaim Gorenstein	25/10/07

6.	It means the US can`t afford a war with Iran.	22:35	\|	Michael	25/10/07

7.	Answer: The same effect as on Castro`s Cuba.	01:50	\|	Fortuna Benmayor	26/10/07

8.	To shia 4 ever in Hungary.	01:53	\|	Fortuna Benmayor	26/10/07

9.	Iran is making $450 million a day on oil!	02:25	\|	Dutch Dirk	26/10/07

10.	Be careful what you wish for.	03:51	\|	Iran-born	26/10/07

11.	Empty vessels make the most noise,the cabal`s last hurrah!	04:10	\|	lakshmi	26/10/07

12.	U.S. sanctions	04:28	\|	a wandering Jew	26/10/07

13.	The USA Is Pretty Smart Actually My Arab Friends	05:20	\|	Yoram	26/10/07

14.	The Europeans,especially the Germans are not as keen as Sarkozy	07:37	\|	lakshmi	26/10/07

15.	Chaim #3, what bombs are those?	16:05	\|	joebhed	26/10/07

16.	Sanctions?	00:46	\|	P. J. Casey	27/10/07

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