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Fri., October 26, 2007 Cheshvan 14, 5768

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Last update - 12:28 23/10/2007

Leave it to the big guys

By Yoel Marcus

The Israeli ethos of not relying on foreign troops to defend this country is all fine and well, but there's no need to be stupid about it.

Israel should not be racing ahead of the pack with its threats on Iran. Even if Ahmadinejad is baiting Israel, Iran is the world's problem. Not only George W. Bush, but also Putin, who pretends to be Iran's friend, is not exactly overjoyed at the thought of a Shi'ite nation with nuclear claws sitting on Russia's southern border, poised to take over the moderate Gulf States and the oil wells, and impose militant Islam on all the moderate Muslim countries living in peace with the Western world.

Iran's outright threats to destroy Israel prompted President Bush to declare that those who want to prevent World War III should keep the Iranians from building the bomb. As long as he's president, it's up to him to attack Iran and knock out its nuclear facilities. For the moment, it's just talk. It's not clear whether American public opinion will back him up, for fear of unleashing some scenario similar to what the U.S. army is going through in Iraq.

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The Iranians say that within a minute of being attacked, 11,000 rockets will be lobbed at pre-determined targets. If they mean Israel, they're bluffing. Iran doesn't have the kind of rocket power to hit Israel. But it does have enough short-range missiles, some equipped with chemical warheads, to do some damage in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and American targets in the Gulf. Iran presumably has contingency plans locked away in a drawer for deadly terror attacks in America itself.

The Israeli home front, in the role of Little Satan, is sure to be on Iran's hit list no matter what. Israel's interests lie in cooperating with whatever sanctions the world decides to impose - not jumping ahead with threats of war.

Israeli defense officials are convinced that the "enlightened world" will not stop Iran from manufacturing the bomb, and because Israel is a designated target, it should attack before it gets attacked. Ephraim Sneh, for example, says that the superpowers are not going to lift a finger. In his opinion, Bush's promises are a lot of hot air. So sooner or later, he concludes, Israel will be forced to take action.

As I type these words, the keyboard is laughing its head off. It's pretty funny when you think about it: Israel single-handedly stopping Iran. The Iranians have learned a lesson or two from Osirak, the Iraqi nuclear reactor knocked out by the Israel Air Force in 1981. Its nuclear reactors, centrifuges and uranium enrichment facilities are spread out in three different places, deep underground and well hidden from the satellites.

Supporters of an Israeli operation say that hitting even one of these targets will suffice to mess up their plans for the next few years. On the other hand, it is not so simple for our planes to reach any of these targets. Flying over Arab countries and refueling in the air, anything could happen.

A botched operation is worse than doing nothing. The "Nasrallah model" could repeat itself, with Ahmadinejad transformed into an Islamic hero. The whole region could go up in flames as Tel Aviv is bombarded, and Hamas, aided and abetted by the Iranians, grabs the reins in the territories.

Throughout decades of warfare, Israel has pulled off some brilliant operations. But there have been some mortifying blunders, too. A few years after the Gulf War, the Israeli army decided it was time to settle the score with Saddam Hussein for the 39 Scuds he fired at Israel, which revealed the weakness of the home front. The plan, cooked up in the feverish brain of Ehud Barak, was to bump off Saddam Hussein during his yearly pilgrimage to his uncle's grave. A crack unit trained for the mission at Tze'elim army base, but in the final drill, something went wrong and we ended up losing some of our finest soldiers. The operation was buried instead of Saddam.

Last year, the government decided in the span of an hour to rap Nasrallah over the knuckles, dragging the country into a 33-day war that showed how incredibly inept our leaders could be, and how easily the Israel Defense Forces could lose its international prestige and power of deterrence.

With all due respect to the ethos that the defense of Israel must not rely on outside forces, the Olmert administration does not have the leadership skills, political credibility or public backing for a military entanglement in Iran.

Resolving a crisis that threatens the world is beyond our ability. Israel would do well to leave the use of force to the big guys.

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1.	You cannot put a lair and a fraud on point. None would follow	13:08	\|	Natallie Durson	23/10/07

2.	Marcus is like hyena feeding on Israel`s weaknesses	13:14	\|	Absolute Sweden	23/10/07

3.	Except for the obligatory familiar canard about Iran threatening	13:46	\|	lakshmi	23/10/07

4.	Iran won`t have to	15:03	\|	Observer	23/10/07

5.	You Ask A Question, Then Don`t Answer It	15:17	\|	Tony Anthony	23/10/07

6.	The Lavon Affair	15:45	\|	dan	23/10/07

7.	LEAVE IT TO THE PSYCHIATRIST	15:58	\|	Iskander	23/10/07

8.	It much more Israel`s problem, that the West`s	16:38	\|	Fortuna Benmayor	23/10/07

9.	lakshmi, some questions - 2. try	17:30	\|	saul a. readner	23/10/07

10.	#3 Lakhsmi, Iran is an environemntal threat	18:05	\|	Michael Martin-Smith	23/10/07

11.	iskander	18:13	\|	saul a. readner	23/10/07

12.	if not Israel, then who?	18:13	\|	ben Ish	23/10/07

13.	fortuna benmayor	18:23	\|	saul a. readner	23/10/07

14.	observer	18:29	\|	saul a. readner	23/10/07

15.	Ok, but Israel must determine a dead line	21:27	\|	Rafael Seabra	23/10/07

16.	To lakshmi	22:00	\|	NYC Jew	23/10/07

17.	Michael Martin-Smith	23:45	\|	Shahin	23/10/07

18.	israel can`t do a thing	23:45	\|	Rick James	23/10/07

19.	Michael Martin-Smith : Part 2	00:05	\|	Shain	24/10/07

20.	Gloomy midle East	22:58	\|	Ali	25/10/07

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