Subscribe to Print Edition | Tue., August 12, 2008 Av 11, 5768 | | Israel Time: 11:14 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
  Back to Homepage
Rosner's Domain
Diplomacy
Defense Jewish World Opinion National
Print Edition
Car Rental
Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File
Last update - 09:22 23/10/2007
If war breaks out
By Reuven Pedatzur
Tags: syria

The next war with Syria, if there is one, will be different from every other war we have known. Granted, there might be tank battles on the Golan Heights, as in the past, but it is doubtful that the war will take place solely at the front, while the civilian rear stays out of it.

If, as expected, the fighting expands to include the home front, residents of Haifa, Hadera and Tel Aviv will be targets for the Syrian army's rockets and missiles. Anyone who wants to imagine what is liable to happen in the streets of our cities if war breaks out with Syria and degenerates into mutual attacks on the civilian rear need not look far. The 4,000 rockets Hezbollah launched during the Second Lebanon War, which paralyzed the lives of some one million residents of the North, provide an example of an attack on Israel's home front.

The Syrian army has about 1,000 ballistic missiles of the Scud B, C and D models, whose ranges are between 300 and 700 kilometers. These missiles can reach anyplace in Israel (the distance from the southern Golan Heights to Tel Aviv is some 150 kilometers). The Syrian missiles are armed with chemical warheads, and Syria is also thought to have experimented with biological weapons. To these must be added Syria's SS-21 missiles, which have a shorter range (about 80 kilometers), but are much more accurate. The Ramat David airfield, for instance, is within range of these missiles. And, having learned a lesson from the Second Lebanon War, the Syrians have protected their missiles by putting them into concrete bunkers.
Advertisement
Even more problematic, from the Israel Defense Forces' perspective, is the Syrian army's store of rockets. Faced with thousands of rockets, both 220mm (whose range is about 70 kilometers) and 302mm (with a range of 90 kilometers), the IDF has no real answer - just as it had no answer to the thousands of rockets launched by Hezbollah. And to these must be added Hezbollah's approximately 20,000 rockets, which the organization will almost certainly use if war breaks out: Cooperation between Syria and Hezbollah has grown even closer since the war.

The Israel Air Force will try to destroy the ballistic missiles and their launchers (the launchers number no more than a few dozen), but it will be powerless in the face of thousands of rockets.

Over the last decade, the Syrian army has gradually become less armored and less mechanized; it is more and more based on infantry, commando units and antitank weapons. The idea behind this structural change is that Syrian forces will wage a defensive war on the Golan Heights and thereby bleed the IDF. The plan is to let the IDF attack and then engage in "close combat," during which they will wear out the attacking forces via numerous antitank missiles borne by infantry troops, including the advanced Metis and Kornet models.

In addition, the Syrian army has positioned tens of thousands of BM-21 rockets, which have a range of about 20 kilometers, at the front. These are liable to exact an extremely heavy price from the IDF.

In recent years, many villages, containing thousands of houses, have been built on the Syrian heights. If the IDF advances toward Damascus, it will have to fight in a built-up area. The residents will be evacuated as soon as the fighting begins, and they will be replaced by Syrian commandos, who will lie in wait for the IDF's tanks and armored personnel carriers. Numerous irrigation channels, dug in order to water the local fields and orchards, will also constitute a barrier against the IDF's tanks.

Therefore, every possible scenario for a war with Syria indicates that the price paid by the IDF, and almost certainly by the civilian rear as well, will be extremely high. Those who failed in a war against a guerrilla organization numbering only a few hundred fighters ought to be very cautious about going to war against a regular army that has learned the lessons of the Lebanon war and intends to exploit every Israeli weakness that it revealed.
Bookmark to del.icio.us  
 
Basic training
IDF soldiers who taught Georgian troops keep an eye on the recent conflict.
Boot camp
200 Palestinian teens graduate from Hamas summer school, prepare for battle with Israel.
  1.   Israel, get rid of your ideological ballast, and make peace.... 09:37  |  Swiss (Dino) 23/10/07
  2.   time to talk peace with Syria 09:41  |  gus # 2 23/10/07
  3.   If War Breaks out , Syria will be turned into a Kurd State 09:47  |  Joseph E . 23/10/07
  4.   too stressfull 09:48  |  a.k. 23/10/07
  5.   Clear skys 09:53  |  Dr David I. Gross 23/10/07
  6.   Sounds Like A Job For 1 Kiloton Nukes 10:07  |  SM 23/10/07
  7.   So Buy Black Parachutes 10:10  |  Rivka 23/10/07
  8.   The distance Syrian rockets have to travel is the same by return. 10:26  |  PETER SM 23/10/07
  9.   That is why we have nukes 10:43  |  FOX 23/10/07
  10.   3 points 10:51  |  Amos 23/10/07
  11.   Unfortunately many still think the old way 11:17  |  Mark B. 23/10/07
  12.   If War Breaks Out 11:24  |  Mike 23/10/07
  13.   Thanks for freaking us out 11:25  |  Kevin 23/10/07
  14.   Syrian rockets 11:28  |  Sheikh Rattle & Roll 23/10/07
  15.   It is suicidal for Syria to launch a solo attack upon Israel 11:31  |  Natallie Durson 23/10/07
  16.   Major flaws in Pedzatur reasoning,designed to scare Israel into 11:34  |  Absolute Sweden 23/10/07
  17.   Cold war mentality 11:42  |  Dr David I. Gross 23/10/07
  18.   When there is a war with Syria 11:59  |  Chris Linthwaite 23/10/07
  19.   But, but, but....the IDF is invincible, surely everyone knows.... 12:03  |  Clickfool 23/10/07
  20.   We Have Much More 12:05  |  dyinglikeflies 23/10/07
  21.   A true story 12:06  |  Yonatan 23/10/07
  22.   Until the Golan Heights are liberated.... 12:11  |  Wise Syrian 23/10/07
  23.   Syrian missiles can hit everywhere except military targets 12:19  |  Dr. L. Brnd 23/10/07
  24.   So Israel is going to walk into the trap laid by Syria 12:20  |  PETER S .M. 23/10/07
  25.   #20 Let`s hope the IDF learnt more than you did last year 12:24  |  Johnboy 23/10/07
  26.   C.FOOL. Only Royal marines are invincible. 12:27  |  PETER S.M. 23/10/07
  27.   Asad should visit Israel and make peace like Sadat 12:32  |  Tamir Palestine 23/10/07
  28.   Very, very interesting 12:34  |  Axel 23/10/07
  29.   Many Good Reasons to Avoid War 12:34  |  Mark of Lewiston 23/10/07
  30.   # 18 Chris Linthwaite 12:40  |  Swiss (Dino) 23/10/07
  31.   #22 Wise Syrian - If that`s wisdom 12:53  |  Yonatan 23/10/07
  32.   #28 Tamir Palestine (formerly Tamir Gaza ?) 12:56  |  Yonatan 23/10/07
  33.   #29 Axle 12:57  |  Yonatan 23/10/07
  34.   THIS WILL BECOME A DIFFERENT WAR 12:57  |  indrajaya 23/10/07
  35.   We have the ultimate weapon-Haaretz editorial staph 12:57  |  Herbert Kaine 23/10/07
  36.   We have the ultimate weapon-Haaretz editorial staph 12:57  |  Herbert Kaine 23/10/07
  37.   Clickfool 13:01  |  Sarah 23/10/07
  38.   # Little completion to my # 31 13:04  |  Swiss (Dino) 23/10/07
  39.   # 1 Swisss 13:11  |  Lynn 23/10/07
  40.   # 22 Wise Syrian 13:13  |  Lynn 23/10/07
  41.   Message #22 of Wise Syrian 13:26  |  Yitzhak 23/10/07
  42.   Chemical or Bio attack by Syria 13:37  |  SystemF 23/10/07
  43.   SYRIA WILL FIGHT w/IMMORAL RULES & ISRAEL WILL FIGHT MORALLY. 13:41  |  Mitch Iginer 23/10/07
  44.   22Wise Syrian,agree with your general sentiment,but a Palestinian 13:58  |  lakshmi 23/10/07
  45.   #1 DINO -" we (the International community) will "take 14:03  |  17 23/10/07
  46.   Dr Strangelove Lives 14:06  |  LB The Jew 23/10/07
  47.   Mark B 14:11  |  Walid 23/10/07
  48.   Isarel and winning wars 14:11  |  Truth 23/10/07
  49.   No problem, we have shelters for the leaders 14:13  |  Aron 23/10/07
  50.   Peace? 14:14  |  Walid 23/10/07
  51.   Peter and daydreams 14:15  |  Truths 23/10/07
  52.   Swiss(Dino) 14:17  |  Walid 23/10/07
  53.   USA and Israel`s ACCURATE Nuclear Missles 14:24  |  HonestAbe 23/10/07
  54.   NO, NO, NO, THE WAR WON`T EVER BREAKS OUT 14:24  |  indrajaya 23/10/07
  55.   Response to Axel 14:30  |  Ehud 23/10/07
  56.   Reading Pedatzur`s nonsense... 14:31  |  Ehud 23/10/07
  57.   # 33 17 14:34  |  Swiss (Dino) 23/10/07
  58.   Message #32 of Lakshmi 14:36  |  Yitzhak 23/10/07
  59.   War will be more coordinated 14:36  |  iKeltin 23/10/07
  60.   Truths 14:46  |  Walid 23/10/07
  61.   War with Syria - for Hannah 14:47  |  Michael Martin-Smith 23/10/07
  62.   # 31 Lynn, you made my Tues(day)...... 14:49  |  Swiss (Dino) 23/10/07
  63.   No 23. Dr. Brnd and your PhD Thesis! 14:53  |  Sohel Saheen 23/10/07
  64.   1..dino...if israel had wisdom 14:54  |  ravi 23/10/07
  65.   Walid 14:54  |  Gabriel 23/10/07
  66.   # 41 Walid 14:58  |  Swiss (Dino) 23/10/07
  67.   Dr.Brnd from San Diego`s interesting post 14:59  |  Shalom Freedman 23/10/07
  68.   Bunkers 15:01  |  Eli Israeli 23/10/07
  69.   Swiss(Dino) 15:02  |  Walid 23/10/07
  70.   A Syrian defensive posture that does not threaten Israel 15:04  |  Nick Ferriman 23/10/07
  71.   #35 Hear, hear 15:12  |  Outsider 23/10/07