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From Israel, it looks different
By Aluf Benn
Tags: Iran, Israel

This is the assessment of the situation at the top diplomatic and military levels in Israel: Iran is moving, unhindered, toward a nuclear bomb. Blocking it with economic sanctions has failed, mainly because Russia, Germany and Italy refuse to stop doing business with the Iranians. Two options remain on the table: to come to terms with Iran's nuclearization because there is no alternative, or to stop it by force.

The United States has military capability, but there is opposition within the administration to an action in Iran. The chances of an American attack appear small; the final decision will be taken by President George W. Bush. In Jerusalem they are finding it difficult to assess what will weigh most in the president's thinking - the strategic and political considerations against another war after the imbroglio in Iraq or his belief it is incumbent upon him to free the world from the nightmare of nuclear weapons in the hands of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Recent weeks have seen a lively debate in the U.S. about what should be done regarding Iran - either dialogue, which would mean coming to terms with the nuclear program, or war. American strategists are talking about "the Cuban missile crisis in slow motion" and are looking for a third way between attack and acceptance. In Israel, there is no such debate, except within a narrow circle of those who are knowledgeable and interested. Israel, it seems, is waiting for Bush's decision, which will be taken during the coming year, before it decides to attack Iran itself.
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The public debate in America reveals the different outlooks of the decision-makers in Jerusalem and in Washington. From here, the Iranian threat looks much more palpable and scarier and the response much simpler and more focused. Presumably, Iran, like Iraq and Syria in their turn, will find it hard to respond. Perhaps it will launch some missiles at Israel plus Hezbollah rockets from Lebanon, and perhaps it will initiate a terror attack on an Israeli target abroad. This would be painful but bearable and would be perceived as a justified price for getting rid of an existential threat.

In American parlance, "attacking Iran" sounds like a World War III, as Bush warned on Wednesday: weeks of bombing Iran's military and civilian infrastructures, following attempts at dialogue and an open ultimatum that would be followed by the blocking of oil supplies to the West and acts of terror in which thousands of Americans are killed, if not an all-Muslim jihad against America that lasts for years. Of course, the danger of destabilizing the world order and economic destruction in the West seems excessive in the face of a few nuclear bombs in Iraq.

When Israelis talk about "the point of no return" in the Iranian nuclear program, they are referring to "crossing the technological threshold." That is, the moment the Iranian engineers and scientists get hold of the knowledge of how to produce nuclear weapons and are able to replicate it, even if the existing installations are destroyed by bombs or shut down in the wake of diplomatic negotiations. The American red line is the more distant date, when Iran has an operational bomb.

The differences in outlook are understandable. Someone who lives in Chicago or Miami can live comfortably with an Iranian bomb, just as he lived under the Soviet threat. An inhabitant of Tel Aviv, whom the president of Iran is threatening to deport to Alaska or Canada, must be far more worried.

"The world" is aware of these differences and in its refusal of sanctions and serious organization against Iran, it is quietly pushing Israel toward a decision to attack. The international silence that greeted the action in Syria could be interpreted as encouragement of Israeli muscle-flexing. The exchanges of threats between Israel and Iran have met indifference in the international community, at least until Bush's speech on Wednesday, in comparison to the concern and efforts focused on the Palestinian issue. Perhaps an American expert who has been following events for years was on target when he said: "You h ave a million and a half Palestinians in Gaza who could march on Tel Aviv tomorrow, and you're worried about nuclear weapons in Iran?"

However, from Israel it looks different: In the eyes of the decision-makers, we will manage somehow with the Palestinians. But the Iranian threat is perceived as intolerable. Anyone who thinks otherwise does not dare speak out openly, at least not until it emerges that either there is a way to stop the Iranians, or that it is already too late.
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  1.   HOLOCAUST DENIERS DON`T THINK RATIONALLY, WHETHER IN T.A. OR MOON 12:44  |  Mitch Iginer 19/10/07
  2.   Yes, Iran is mostly Israels problem, indeed..... 12:51  |  Swiss (Dino) 19/10/07
  3.   Khamanei/Ahmadinejad nightmare! 12:51  |  akiva (zionist) 19/10/07
  4.   long-term perspective 13:12  |  Michele 19/10/07
  5.   Mr Aluf Benn 13:17  |  Sarah 19/10/07
  6.   Israel first to bring nuclear weapons to M.E. 13:19  |  Danny 19/10/07
  7.   Why doesn`t Israel produce it`s "proof"? 13:22  |  Mark Lincoln 19/10/07
  8.   What I am missing ... 13:31  |  Axel 19/10/07
  9.   Israel can`t stop all Islamic nukes 13:46  |  Michael 19/10/07
  10.   About the Iranian Hydra 14:00  |  Jonathan S 19/10/07
  11.   It IS a Difficult problem 14:00  |  Ronnie Wolman 19/10/07
  12.   Of course it does... 14:00  |  Dilip Nirody 19/10/07
  13.   The problem Israel has 14:02  |  Chris Linthwaite 19/10/07
  14.   Don`t be so mean... 14:04  |  christoph 19/10/07
  15.   Hit Iran RIGHT NOW! 14:16  |  El_Justiciero 19/10/07
  16.   If Iran Can Children.... 14:49  |  JewishHeart 19/10/07
  17.   #3 akiva (zionist)-Dont fear. try to understand 14:53  |  Henry 19/10/07
  18.   lincoln,do you really believe iran is in this for civillian use 14:55  |  terrornator 19/10/07
  19.   #3 akiva (zionist)-Dont fear. try to understand 14:58  |  Henry 19/10/07
  20.   Iran`s Nukes 14:58  |  nate 19/10/07
  21.   Unjustified Israeli hysteria 15:06  |  Tosefta 19/10/07
  22.   Iranian attack unlikely 15:06  |  joki 19/10/07
  23.   Thanks to Israel 15:14  |  Jan 19/10/07
  24.   to act against iran 15:19  |  ahmed ali 19/10/07
  25.   America is being rolled back and can israel be far behind? 15:19  |  lakshmi 19/10/07
  26.   Sounds Easy 15:21  |  Al 19/10/07
  27.   Israel`s flawed perspective 15:22  |  joebhed 19/10/07
  28.   #5 Sara. 15:24  |  John Allen 19/10/07
  29.   Good Assessment 15:34  |  Brod 19/10/07
  30.   Unjustified Israeli hysteria 15:51  |  Tosefta 19/10/07
  31.   yes Israel must face its inevitable doom 15:53  |  Indrajaya 19/10/07
  32.   Tick! Tick! Tick! Tick! 15:55  |  Tony Anthony 19/10/07
  33.   Israel not the only threatened nation 15:58  |  Chick 19/10/07
  34.   Israel should also try to restrain AIPAC 16:02  |  Tosefta 19/10/07
  35.   Mutually Assured Destruction 16:02  |  Chris Linthwaite 19/10/07
  36.   yet again...? 16:22  |  ravi 19/10/07
  37.   ahmed ali # 16 did you think the israeli military was a 16:23  |  terrornator 19/10/07
  38.   It`s the psychological warfare, stupid. 16:24  |  Fortuna Benmayor 19/10/07
  39.   #23 Brod 16:25  |  Chris Linthwaite 19/10/07
  40.   On ex-Mossad`s EPHRAIM HALEVY on IRAN. 16:35  |  Fortuna Benmayor 19/10/07
  41.   Aluf Benn, you are forgetting the one and most important thing 16:36  |  Mark B. 19/10/07
  42.   Slowman`s wisdom on skipping posts 16:45  |  Aluf Benn 19/10/07
  43.   to 23 17:01  |  dovale 19/10/07
  44.   Chris Linthwaite #31 17:06  |  Brod 19/10/07
  45.   Toseftaleh 17:07  |  dovale 19/10/07
  46.   #39 Brod 17:25  |  Chris Linthwaite 19/10/07
  47.   Putin`s Dream 17:28  |  Ben - Africa 19/10/07
  48.   WHO BELIEVES THE WMD JOKE? 17:32  |  ISHMAEL ISHMAEL 19/10/07
  49.   Strategic planning 17:36  |  Jimmi G 19/10/07
  50.   The sinner is preaching good 17:38  |  Shahin 19/10/07
  51.   #15 El_Justiciero 17:43  |  Shahin 19/10/07
  52.   Danny: You Miss Critical Points 17:44  |  Brad 19/10/07
  53.   The Abominable Slowman 17:46  |  Aluf Benn 19/10/07
  54.   threats 17:50  |  khairi janbek 19/10/07
  55.   Perpetual war is Israel`s plan for the middle east? 17:55  |  Mexican American 19/10/07
  56.   Attack on Iran will never "rid" israel of existential thread 17:56  |  Pablo B 19/10/07
  57.   to Swiss Dino 18:02  |  Hilda 19/10/07
  58.   # 39 brod 18:07  |  Axel 19/10/07
  59.   By and large a correct assesment of this burning problem... 18:17  |  Misha 19/10/07
  60.   Iran says ready to help other nation` nuke needs-start w/ Israel 18:20  |  Michael Korn 19/10/07
  61.   shabin,the key point in your post is correct,we have used nukes 18:21  |  terrornator 19/10/07
  62.   President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 18:34  |  Omran 19/10/07
  63.   peace now 18:41  |  shawn 19/10/07
  64.   Iran 18:46  |  Mustafa 19/10/07
  65.   Israel should also try to restrain AIPAC 19:02  |  Tosefta 19/10/07
  66.   Terrornator #45 19:05  |  James l 19/10/07
  67.   Israel`s arsenal not equivalent 19:23  |  Ricardo 19/10/07
  68.   WWIII is knocking on the Door 19:24  |  Gil 19/10/07
  69.   Deadly certainty about Iranian nukes 19:24  |  Jonathan S 19/10/07
  70.   Israel was NOT the first to introduce nukes to the Middle East 19:48  |  Jake 19/10/07
  71.   Swiss (Dino), of course you don`t have to worry about Iran 19:54  |  Jake 19/10/07
  72.   #16 JewishHeart 19:55  |  Shahin 19/10/07
  73.   Sarah, pardon me? 20:07  |  Jake 19/10/07
  74.   joebhed, what are you talking about? 20:15  |  Jake 19/10/07
  75.   Axel #58 20:22  |  Brod 19/10/07
  76.   #69 Jonathan S 20:27  |  Chris Linthwaite 19/10/07
  77.   Iran 20:27  |  P. J. Casey 19/10/07
  78.   Lakshmi, aren`t you happy that America is being "rolled back"? 20:29  |  Jake 19/10/07
  79.   Iran 20:29  |  Michael Riggs 19/10/07
  80.   Toseftas nonsense 20:42  |  danite 19/10/07
  81.