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del.icio.us Digg It!  new The best option By Daniel Levy It may sound counterintuitive, even heretical, but it could just be that Israel is overlooking - or worse, helping to block - what is possibly the best option available for avoiding a nuclear Iran. Direct American-led negotiations are not in play, and Israel is complicit in this omission. The United States looms largest in Iranian threat perceptions and only the U.S. - not the EU, UN, or the International Atomic Energy Agency - can deliver a deal for verifiable re-suspension of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. In Jerusalem there is a perhaps understandable tendency to imagine that Tehran has an Israel obsession. Indeed, the Iranian president does have a particularly vile reverse infatuation with the Jewish state. But this should not be confused with the map of real threats and interests occupying Iran, in which Iraq, the Gulf, even Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region all normally feature more prominently than Zion. Above all, there is America, with its talk of and support for regime change and an annual military budget 90 times that of Iran. Advertisement Over-simplifying Iran tends to lead to bad policy-making. President Ahmadinejad may be all of the things that the president of Columbia University accused him of being, and more, but he does not solely define Iran's national interest - far from it. Tehran hosts a complex web of competing power centers, and Ahmadinejad's brand of messianism does not necessarily translate into a suicidal or even nonrational state policy. There is widespread dissatisfaction with his domestic and especially economic policies, and his reelection in 18 months is far from assured. American and Israeli bellicosity only serve to boost his popular appeal. The current policy approach is very unlikely to succeed. Lack of an agreed-upon objective is one reason: Is it regime change or weapons non-proliferation? The two are not interchangeable, and may even be incompatible. Iran is expected to curtail its nuclear program while remaining a target for regime change. The lesson of recent history as understood by Iran's leadership is that axis-of-evil membership plus nuclear weapons equals reasonable negotiating terms (North Korea); minus those weapons one's fate is less appealing (Iraq). Regime-change strategies seem hopelessly naive. The U.S. has been backing at least three proxy opposition groups to little effect: the Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK, Iraq-based), the Baluchi Jundullah group (Soldiers of God) and the Kurdish Pejak. Other, more credible, exile and human rights groups recently shunned official U.S. support. Meanwhile the Islamic republic will soon have outlasted its fifth American president. The nuclear prevention-focused policy revolves around sanctions backed with threats of more painful punitive measures. The impact of the sanctions, however, seems to be completely out of synch with the timeline of nuclear progress. Ineffective sanctions can serve to narrow the corridor leading to a military strike, and for some that is the precise intention. Washington has recently hardened its threats against Tehran, accusing it of being responsible for American deaths in Iraq. President Bush has a track record in dealing with "bad regimes" suspected of producing "bad weapons," yet U.S. military action need not be a given. Most senior U.S. military are known to be actively opposed. The option of independent Israeli action against Iran is largely a myth. The long-standing "no surprises" commitment, the likely need for U.S. flyover permission, and almost certain targeting of U.S. assets in retaliation, makes any Israeli military calculation very much a joint affair. No military plan guarantees success, and the almost certain devastating consequences make the idea very ill-advised. An attack would likely provoke a military response in the region and beyond, notably in Iraq and Afghanistan, wreak havoc on oil supplies, enrage the Muslim (including Sunni) world, be a gift to jihadi recruitment, create new enemies and harden hatreds. Israel would face a particularly fierce backlash, conceivably for generations. Although hard to stomach, a deterrence and containment strategy for dealing with a nuclear Iran are preferable to the military option, even for Israel. After all, India and Pakistan survived going nuclear. Yet it should not come to this. Let's call the alternative double-dip diplomacy. The U.S. would offer Iran two negotiating tracks. The first focuses on the priority security concerns of each side: the nuclear file, Iraq, regime security, sanctions. The second would address all issues of mutual concern, region-wide. For Washington, the key emphasis should be securing a verifiable freeze in any nuclear-weapons program. The second track of grand bargaining seems unpromising in current circumstances, although, conversely, addressing all issues might be the only way for the Iranians to make progress on any issue and this option should always be on offer. The U.S.-Iranian talks would be direct, not via proxy, and without preconditions. A genuine U.S. offer would most effectively give regime pragmatists a tool to work with and leverage the pressure that has been generated but that, absent diplomacy, leaves nothing constructive to navigate toward. Beyond the nuclear question, a U.S.-Iranian detente may best deliver on Israeli interests across a range of issues. Variations on the diplomatic option have been advocated by numerous experts, think tanks and politicians in the U.S.; official Washington remains skeptical and split on this. An Israeli green light would greatly enhance the prospects of the U.S. giving diplomacy a try - helping to tip the balance inside the administration and providing political cover. Any Israeli leader serious about "stopping" Iran should tear up those speaking notes about 1938 and have a quiet diplomatic word in Uncle Sam's ear. Daniel Levy, a senior fellow at the New America and Century Foundations, was previously an adviser in the Israeli Prime Minister's Office and was the lead Israeli drafter of the Geneva Initiative. Bookmark to del.icio.us Administrative orphans Six Hebron children, whose parents were arrested, were left with their grandmother. Change the past Father of Jewish psychology suggests avoiding picking away at the scars of the past.   1.   Say it again, for the Zionist Blowhards of Talkback 10:00  |  Clickfool 19/10/07   2.   Iran cant use Nukes on Israel ! what is this none stop worry ? 10:03  |  Atilla Karagözoğlu 19/10/07   3.   Iran has taken a major strategic decision 10:06  |  Clickfool 19/10/07   4.   Excellent analysis from A - Z 10:09  |  Swiss (Dino) 19/10/07   5.   WHY WE ARE DANGER FOR OTHERS EXISTING ? 10:09  |  Atilla 19/10/07   6.   Before American existance ! THERE WERE IRAN ! 10:18  |  Atilla 19/10/07   7.   Myths Havent Stopped Actions Being Taken at other points in histo 10:26  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/10/07   8.   one more thing ! 10:29  |  Atilla Karagözoğlu 19/10/07   9.   Cut out the Emotional Rhetoric 10:55  |  Tzfonit 19/10/07   10.   Spin it any way you like. Attacking Iran is a bad idea 11:00  |  Natallie Durson 19/10/07   11.   At last somebody kills the Ahmedinejad is Hitler myth 11:16  |  Michael 19/10/07   12.   Its 2007 and the Palestinians are treated just like... 11:24  |  Dutch Dirk 19/10/07   13.   At last, some sanity on the subject 11:25  |  Ivar 19/10/07   14.   The behaviour of Israel and the US 11:38  |  Edith 19/10/07   15.   WOULD IGNORING RHETORIC OF ANTISEMITISM HAVE STOPPED HITLER/38?!? 11:42  |  Mitch Iginer 19/10/07   16.   Appeaseniks are the real warmongers 11:46  |  Jonathan S 19/10/07   17.   Analysis from people who have failed... 11:47  |  Ehud 19/10/07   18.   #12daffey dirck writes from amstel dam 11:48  |  victor hardman 19/10/07   19.   Daniel Levi=defitism 12:02  |  Even 19/10/07   20.   Total misunderstanding of Iran`s strategic goals 13:31  |  Shalom Freedman 19/10/07   21.   bombing 13:47  |  GYBOR 19/10/07   22.   excellent article.... 15:01  |  Tess 19/10/07   23.   Levy - EU Supported and Wrongheaded 21:12  |  Tod Zuckerman 19/10/07   24.   Good article 22:00  |  Geoff 19/10/07   25.   Ivar,there`s an ire against Estonian apartheid,you won`t be able 22:08  |  Absolute Sweden 19/10/07   26.   Tess 22:11  |  Ehud 19/10/07   27.   NObody can destroy the Iranian nuclear plant 22:57  |  HardTalk 19/10/07   28.   HardTalk,your myth of "inside of a mountain" 23:50  |  Absolute Sweden 19/10/07   29.   mountain bases can be destroyed 23:50  |  Jack 19/10/07   30.   Not Only Iran 03:31  |  JJ 20/10/07   31.   Why would any sane US govt give a damn? 04:06  |  Rowan Berkeley 20/10/07   32.   Never Give it Up 05:18  |  Thomas Kline 20/10/07   33.   direct talks....? 06:06  |  ravi 20/10/07   34.   excellent suggestions with this article and analysis of situation 07:15  |  Smadar 20/10/07

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